Posted on 10/29/2009 2:23:59 PM PDT by Ravi
see above
(Excerpt) Read more at realclearpolitics.com ...
everything indicates our side is far more motivated. the obama voters are still waiting on their checks so they may not be out in force.
Check this out: Recent Election Results
1998: 80.8% Republican
2000: 81.4% Republican + Conservative
2002: Unopposed
2004: 70.7% Republican
2006: 63.1% Republican
2008: 65.3% Republican
I think the 2000 election is an important comparison...this was before John McHugh was the incumbant, and it was a scenario similar to what we have today: Republican vs. Conservative vs. Democrat. The Republican ultimately won that, but I strongly doubt people were as fired up about David Vickers as they are about Hoffman today.
Also, that was a presidntial election year in which turnout was considerably higher. The relatively low turnout for this special election may play well to our side.
Can any New Yorkers weigh in on this? I'm very interested to hear what you folks have to say about it.
i agree with you that essentially,dede and owens will be splitting the same vote leaving the victors share for Hoffman
Corzine is hated by the vast majority of voters in NJ, just like Flim Flam Florio was in 1993. He is particulary despised by Indies, who also happen to be the biggest block voters in NJ. Christie leads with Indies by double digits, and Daggett is fading and won’t receive more than 7% of the vote. Christie is also lawyered up and ready to fight dirty. Chris wins, but it will be close, just like 1993.
DAILY KOS asserts that CHRISTIE will WIN???
hugh, series, blah blah blah.
Democracy Corps had Corzine leading by 3 on 10/8/09, by 3 on 10/22/09 and now by 5. But, if you take a look at their most recent poll you’ll notice they don’t post a Margin Of Error anywhere. I called their DC office and asked them why. They put me through the gauntlet, they wanted to know who I was, who did I work for, what organization was I with. I told them I am just and average Joe who saw their poll on RCP and wanted to know why they didn’t post an MOE. I was told I would get a call back, but that was 3 hours ago, I’m not waiting by the phone.
Those aren’t from the Kos kids. Those ads are a brilliant move by the Club For Growth.
Corzine wins in the 2nd recount.
Nice tactic. You got the usual run-around fire drill when they knew they got caught.
I have to think that going strictly by the numbers Christie will win. Rasmussen has Christie at 49-49 fav/unfav while Corzine is at a whopping 41-57 rating. It’s just really, really difficult to win with those numbers even though the race is technically tight. Of course I realize that NJ is historically a teaser/joke state so anything is possible. I say Christie wins by 3-4%.
With Hoffman I tend to agree with your analysis. The dynamics are harder to judge because while both races have three parties this one has the bigger breakup with the last place candidate (Scozzafava) polling in at around 20%. It’s hard to judge because the two polls showing Hoffman up 4-5% don’t even tap 400 LVs, while the Kos/R2000 poll taps 600 LVs and shows a dead heat. I think Hoffman probably has a very marginal lead but that the large amount of undecideds are probably Scozzafava holdouts and independents. Hoffman has done such a remarkable job it’s hard to imagine that those still holding out might have yet to settle on him rather than, say, disaffected Scozzafava voters who will more than likely either vote for her, stay home, or even vote for Owens out of spite.
So basically I wouldn’t place bets on that one although he may squeeze by with a point or two. Hard to say.
We definitely clobber in Virginia though.
“I was told I would get a call back, but that was 3 hours ago, I’m not waiting by the phone.”
Smart man!
Challenger? Its a special election for an OPEN SEAT... applying “challenger” to an open seat race is a false premise.
Notice that trend? Its overall DOWNWARD. We’ll see what happens. I hope he pulls it out, but with 22% undecided, thinking a 4 point lead is safe is wishful thinking in my book.
I realize it’s an overall DOWNWARD trend. But there are other factors at play, like how much attention this particular race is receiving vs. years past.
It will be interesting to see how this plays out.
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