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Final Daily Kos/R2000 Polls (Christie +1; McDonnell +10; Hoffman -1)
RCP ^ | 10/29/09 | Markos

Posted on 10/29/2009 2:23:59 PM PDT by Ravi

see above

(Excerpt) Read more at realclearpolitics.com ...


TOPICS: Extended News; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; US: New Jersey; US: New York; US: Virginia
KEYWORDS: 2009polls; christie; hoffman; kos; mcdonnell; nj2009; ny23; obama; va2009
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To: goldstategop

everything indicates our side is far more motivated. the obama voters are still waiting on their checks so they may not be out in force.


21 posted on 10/29/2009 2:58:48 PM PDT by wiggen (Never in the history of our great country have the people had less representation than they do today)
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To: HamiltonJay
You just aren’t likely to get 60%+ to vote Conservative/Republican in NY 23, and that’s the minimal combined numbers that he and the R candidate will be needed for Hoffman to win.

Check this out: Recent Election Results

1998: 80.8% Republican

2000: 81.4% Republican + Conservative

2002: Unopposed

2004: 70.7% Republican

2006: 63.1% Republican

2008: 65.3% Republican

I think the 2000 election is an important comparison...this was before John McHugh was the incumbant, and it was a scenario similar to what we have today: Republican vs. Conservative vs. Democrat. The Republican ultimately won that, but I strongly doubt people were as fired up about David Vickers as they are about Hoffman today.

Also, that was a presidntial election year in which turnout was considerably higher. The relatively low turnout for this special election may play well to our side.

Can any New Yorkers weigh in on this? I'm very interested to hear what you folks have to say about it.

22 posted on 10/29/2009 3:00:28 PM PDT by Zeppelin (Keep on FReepin' on...)
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To: garv

i agree with you that essentially,dede and owens will be splitting the same vote leaving the victors share for Hoffman


23 posted on 10/29/2009 3:02:53 PM PDT by wiggen (Never in the history of our great country have the people had less representation than they do today)
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To: mware; HamiltonJay

Corzine is hated by the vast majority of voters in NJ, just like Flim Flam Florio was in 1993. He is particulary despised by Indies, who also happen to be the biggest block voters in NJ. Christie leads with Indies by double digits, and Daggett is fading and won’t receive more than 7% of the vote. Christie is also lawyered up and ready to fight dirty. Chris wins, but it will be close, just like 1993.


24 posted on 10/29/2009 3:10:11 PM PDT by moose2004 (Stand up, speak out and stop Obamacare and GE)
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To: Ravi

DAILY KOS asserts that CHRISTIE will WIN???
hugh, series, blah blah blah.


25 posted on 10/29/2009 3:18:09 PM PDT by dangus (Nah, I'm not really Jim Thompson, but I play him on FR.)
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To: IllumiNaughtyByNature

Democracy Corps had Corzine leading by 3 on 10/8/09, by 3 on 10/22/09 and now by 5. But, if you take a look at their most recent poll you’ll notice they don’t post a Margin Of Error anywhere. I called their DC office and asked them why. They put me through the gauntlet, they wanted to know who I was, who did I work for, what organization was I with. I told them I am just and average Joe who saw their poll on RCP and wanted to know why they didn’t post an MOE. I was told I would get a call back, but that was 3 hours ago, I’m not waiting by the phone.


26 posted on 10/29/2009 3:18:24 PM PDT by moose2004 (Stand up, speak out and stop Obamacare and GE)
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To: garv

Those aren’t from the Kos kids. Those ads are a brilliant move by the Club For Growth.


27 posted on 10/29/2009 3:22:22 PM PDT by perfect_rovian_storm (The worst is behind us. Unfortunately it is really well endowed.)
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To: goldstategop

Corzine wins in the 2nd recount.


28 posted on 10/29/2009 3:35:35 PM PDT by stylin19a
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To: moose2004

Nice tactic. You got the usual run-around fire drill when they knew they got caught.


29 posted on 10/29/2009 3:52:43 PM PDT by IllumiNaughtyByNature (FR33 73h lOn9 fOrM 81R7H c3r71F1ca73!!)
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To: HamiltonJay

I have to think that going strictly by the numbers Christie will win. Rasmussen has Christie at 49-49 fav/unfav while Corzine is at a whopping 41-57 rating. It’s just really, really difficult to win with those numbers even though the race is technically tight. Of course I realize that NJ is historically a teaser/joke state so anything is possible. I say Christie wins by 3-4%.

With Hoffman I tend to agree with your analysis. The dynamics are harder to judge because while both races have three parties this one has the bigger breakup with the last place candidate (Scozzafava) polling in at around 20%. It’s hard to judge because the two polls showing Hoffman up 4-5% don’t even tap 400 LVs, while the Kos/R2000 poll taps 600 LVs and shows a dead heat. I think Hoffman probably has a very marginal lead but that the large amount of undecideds are probably Scozzafava holdouts and independents. Hoffman has done such a remarkable job it’s hard to imagine that those still holding out might have yet to settle on him rather than, say, disaffected Scozzafava voters who will more than likely either vote for her, stay home, or even vote for Owens out of spite.

So basically I wouldn’t place bets on that one although he may squeeze by with a point or two. Hard to say.

We definitely clobber in Virginia though.


30 posted on 10/29/2009 4:59:30 PM PDT by Norman Bates
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To: moose2004

“I was told I would get a call back, but that was 3 hours ago, I’m not waiting by the phone.”

Smart man!


31 posted on 10/29/2009 5:02:25 PM PDT by Norman Bates
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To: TypeZoNegative

Challenger? Its a special election for an OPEN SEAT... applying “challenger” to an open seat race is a false premise.


32 posted on 10/29/2009 5:52:16 PM PDT by HamiltonJay
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To: Zeppelin

Notice that trend? Its overall DOWNWARD. We’ll see what happens. I hope he pulls it out, but with 22% undecided, thinking a 4 point lead is safe is wishful thinking in my book.


33 posted on 10/29/2009 5:54:42 PM PDT by HamiltonJay
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To: HamiltonJay

I realize it’s an overall DOWNWARD trend. But there are other factors at play, like how much attention this particular race is receiving vs. years past.

It will be interesting to see how this plays out.


34 posted on 10/30/2009 8:17:16 AM PDT by Zeppelin (Keep on FReepin' on...)
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