Posted on 10/28/2009 6:35:01 AM PDT by ScottinVA
New Jersey Gov. Jon Corzine leads Republican challenger Christopher Christie for the first time in their five-month slugfest, on top 43 - 38 percent among likely voters, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Independent candidate Christopher Daggett has 13 percent, with 5 percent undecided.
This compares to a 41 - 40 percent Christie lead, with 14 percent for Daggett, in an October 14 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University.
Among Daggett supporters, 38 percent say they might change their mind: 43 percent say Christie is their second choice, while 27 percent say Gov. Corzine is number two.
Only 12 percent of Christie voters and 19 percent of Corzine backers say they might change their mind.
Corzine leads 79 - 8 percent among Democratic likely voters, with 10 percent for Daggett. Christie leads 79 - 7 percent among Republicans, with 9 percent for Daggett, and 45 - 30 percent among independent voters, with 20 percent for Daggett.
New Jersey voters disapprove 54 - 39 percent of the job Corzine is doing, still negative, but his best overall approval rating in months. Independent voters disapprove 68 - 29 percent.
"You could see it coming. Gov. Jon Corzine's numbers crept steadily up and Christopher Christie's steadily shrank and now, for the first time, we have Corzine ahead," said Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.
(Excerpt) Read more at quinnipiac.edu ...
Philly ACORN voters register at relatives across the river, and vote in new Jersey elections, too.
Watch the numbers from CAMDEN and vicinity Tuesday night.
He won't even need ACORN. Jersey voters do this all by themselves. From the start, I've predicted a 6-8% margin for Corzine and this poll solidifies that prediction.
Hope all the Daggett voters are happy.
While I agree that the poll might be suspect, NJ has a long history of voting reliably socialist. Most of the people who cared about that left the state long ago so the only people left are those who find such things to their liking.
Personally I hope that if Corzine wins, the first thing he does is triple (or more) the tax rate, the voters who elect him fully deserve it.
Who are we to believe, Qunnipiac or this from Rasmussen :
Election 2009: New Jersey Governor
New Jersey Governor: Christie 46%, Corzine 43%
Tuesday, October 27, 2009
With just a week to go in New Jersey’s closely contested race for governor, Republican Chris Christie holds a three-point advantage over incumbent Democratic Governor Jon Corzine.
The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in New Jersey show Christie with 46% of the vote and Corzine with 43%. While the margin is little changed from a week ago and the week before, the biggest news may be that support for independent candidate Chris Daggett has dropped four points to seven percent (7%). The number of undecided voters is down to four percent (4%).
The decline in support for Daggett comes in a week when several state newspapers endorsed Christie or Corzine, but none followed The (Newark) Star-Ledger’s lead and came out in favor of the independent candidate. Additionally, Christie began a new ad campaign linking Corzine and Daggett.
Christie leads by eight points among those who are certain they will show up and vote. A week ago, he was up by five among that group. Christie’s supporters are also less likely to say they might consider voting for someone else.
Corzine does better among voters who might not make it to the polls. That’s one reason President Obama, former President Bill Clinton and other Democratic Party luminaries are spending time in the Garden State in hopes of encouraging turnout.
(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it’s in the news, it’s in our polls). Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.
At this point, there is no possible way to project what will happen on Election Day. The Democrats clearly have an edge in New Jersey when it comes to getting out the vote, which is one reason no Republican has won a statewide race in New Jersey since 1997. It’s also impossible to know how much support Daggett will retain.
Measuring the ultimate impact of third-party candidates is always challenging. Many voters initially say they support an independent option and then change their minds as Election Day nears. That’s because they eventually decide to vote for the lesser of two evils between the major party candidates.
Currently, 14% of voters cite Daggett as their first preference. That’s down a couple of points from a week ago. However, only about half that base appears likely to stay with him at this time.
Corzine is now viewed favorably by 41% and unfavorably by 57%. Those numbers are unchanged from a week ago.
Christie’s totals are 49% favorable and 49% unfavorable, generally the same as last week.
Feelings remain stronger about the governor: 40% have a Very Unfavorable view of him while 27% say the same about Christie.
Daggett is now viewed favorably by 42% and unfavorably by 40%. That unfavorable number is up eight points over the past week and 13 points over the past two weeks. Fifteen percent (15%) have a Very Unfavorable opinion of the independent candidate.
Early in the year, Christie held a solid lead over Corzine. The governor’s campaign worked to make Christie an unacceptable alternative and succeeded in driving the negative ratings up for the GOP hopeful. Daggett became a possible candidate for those who didn’t like the governor but also didn’t want to vote for a Republican, so Christie began linking Corzine and Daggett. That has succeeded in driving up Daggett’s negative ratings. About the only thing certain in New Jersey at the moment is that the next governor will be someone that is disliked by at least half the state.
It all depends on who was asked. Polls are notorious about stacking to the left.
oops! I accidentally made my sarc tag cross out my next line!
That's what voting third party is all about too... making yourself happy. Those Nadar voters sure showed the Democats. Was 8 years of Clinton worth it to send Bush a message? Maybe, maybe not but if it feels good, people will do it. ;-)
Given the past performance of NJ voters, I'd say the Quin is the more accurate one this time around.
I heard somewhere that New Jersey citizens pay something like 60% of their income in taxes. And it looks like they don’t have anything to show for it.
If these folks continue to elect Corazine and the others like him in state government, they do get what they deserve.
Last one leaving NJ, please turn out the lights.
Yes. And some of them should be holding big signs with the picture of the Black Panthers doing the same thing.
“in an October 14 survey” its oct 28 now, 14 days is a lifetime in politics........ras has christie by 3 and PPP has him by 4...we will see!!! then again its freakin’ New Jersey!
Perhaps the poll switching to “Likely Voters” has swung the numbers? Polls using LV are the only ones worth looking at anyway.
oops didn’t read it closely
Yet, year upon year, as in Michigan, no matter how the dems run their state into the ground, they keep getting elected. Today's upside is: McDonnell is ahead by 13 in VA. Hoo-RAH!!
“main problem here is Daggett
bleeds off support from Christie more than Corzine”
(1) And note the push the media is giving Daggett—he had front page of the Philadelphia Inquirer, plus a continuation inside for an ENTIRE page, in the last week.
(2) For what it’s worth, a grouping of signs for democrats, including Corzine & Norcross the little,showed up last week at entrance to my apartment complex. My little homemade sign “Dump Corzine in ‘09” kept falling over but wasn’t removed. Today I noticed the Corzine sign is gone (and I didn’t do it!) I’m noticing Corzine absent from most democratic sign groupings in the area.
PPP (D) came out yesterday with a new poll showing Christie ahead by 4. I am suspect of the Quincy poll for one very big reason, Independents. Quincy has consistently maintained that Indies are the biggest voting group in NJ, I absolutely agree. The problem is that Christie, according to them, leads this group 45 - 30 (Corzine) - 20 (Daggett), how can you be winning this vital group by 15 and be losing to Corzine by 5? Also, Quincy states that Christie is still bleeding Repub support. I disagree. I believe, like Rasmussen, that Daggett is bleeding support daily, he has no GOTV operation or money to speak of, he has very poor placement on County By County ballots and Indies ALWAYS fade at the end. Rasmussen made a big deal about Daggett losing ground since his last poll. Lastly, and I really like this one, Qunicy adds a caveat saying the race is far from over because 38% of Daggett’s current supporters could change their minds. Wow, you think? Chris is going to win like Whitman did in 1993, and Daggett will get 5% - 7% of the vote.
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