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Consumer Confidence Dips Due to Jobs - And the Price of Oil?
Seeking Alpha ^ | October 28, 2009 | Seeking Alpha

Posted on 10/28/2009 3:16:55 AM PDT by Son House

U.S. consumers turned decidedly more pessimistic in October, according to a report released Tuesday, with households increasingly worried about job prospects.

The Conference Board, a private research group, said its monthly Consumer Confidence Index fell to 47.7 this month, from a revised 53.4 in September, which was originally reported as 53.1. The current month's reading was well below economists' projections of 53.2, according to a survey conducted by Dow Jones Newswires.

The downturn in consumer confidence at this stage of the recovery is to be expected, as it has occurred in previous recoveries (please see chart below), and does not negate the buy signal on the economy given during the summer.

Although concern over jobs is the primary factor behind the decline, the rise in U.S. retail gasoline prices since the beginning of the year is also a likely, though recently unspoken, factor. This price rise is about $1.10, or 69 percent (see chart below).

A sustained move above $3.00, or an oil price of above $85, would in our minds put a brake on the economic recovery and bring another outcry over commodity speculation by hedge funds.


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Extended News; Front Page News; Government; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: 111th; bho44; bhoeconomy; bhofascism; capandtrade; cci; confidence; consumer; consumerconfidence; cpi; democratcongress; democratcorruption; democrats; demsblockdrilling; drillheredrillnow; drilling; economy; energy; energyprices; gasprices; hopeychangey; joblessrecovery; jobs; liberalfascism; obama; offshoredrilling; oil; oilprices; tyranny; unemployment
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So all the Keynesian liquidity isn't motivating consumers? Jobs? Jobs? Jobs? Congressional Democrats are fools to have listened to the economist selling that American Investment and Recovery Act, or they were trying to fool everyone else. Not this time. Repeal the Stimulus bill spending, lack of jobs Congress
1 posted on 10/28/2009 3:16:56 AM PDT by Son House
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To: Son House
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2 posted on 10/28/2009 3:19:59 AM PDT by Son House ($$$The US is Bankrupt thanks to the 111th United States Congress$$$)
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To: Son House
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3 posted on 10/28/2009 3:21:18 AM PDT by Son House ($$$The US is Bankrupt thanks to the 111th United States Congress$$$)
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To: Son House

The downturn in consumer confidence at this stage of the recovery is to be expected, as it has occurred in previous recoveries (please see chart below), and does not negate the buy signal on the economy given during the summer.

^
First time I seen an ‘expected’ on the economic numbers in a long time, but other article called it ‘unexpected’


4 posted on 10/28/2009 3:24:19 AM PDT by Son House ($$$The US is Bankrupt thanks to the 111th United States Congress$$$)
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To: Son House

an oil price of above $85

^
Nearing that now, thanks CONgress!


5 posted on 10/28/2009 3:25:20 AM PDT by Son House ($$$The US is Bankrupt thanks to the 111th United States Congress$$$)
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To: Son House
They can talk about green shoots all they want but until private enterprise starts to hire and gas prices fall to a more manageable level you are going to see declining consumer confidence. Its my opinion that this combination is going to be their death kneel.
6 posted on 10/28/2009 4:10:50 AM PDT by RU88 (Bow to no man)
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To: Son House

Price of oil is up because obama is trying to help out his oil buddies. Right? That was always the reason the media gave for oil prices rising when George Bush was president.


7 posted on 10/28/2009 4:31:29 AM PDT by Josa
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To: RU88

re: to see declining consumer confidence

And that in turn leads to less consumer spending, which in turn leads to more down numbers which in turn lead to declining consumer confidence numbers.

OK class, here’s your assignment. Can you spot the pattern here? If so, do you think it’s a good pattern or very worrisome pattern.

Extra credit: Tell us how the recession can end with several hundred thousand jobs a week being lost, the deficit rocketing to new highs and the printing presses working full time to print money that is backed by nothing.


8 posted on 10/28/2009 6:00:20 AM PDT by jwparkerjr (God Bless America, and wake us up while you're about it!)
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To: Son House; FBD; stephenjohnbanker
"U.S. consumers turned decidedly more pessimistic in October..."

No-no-NO.
"U.S. consumers unexpectedly turned decidedly more pessimistic in October..."

Obviously a piker.
Gotta get it "right" IF one has any chance of catching a lizard's attention. LOL

9 posted on 10/28/2009 6:32:30 AM PDT by Landru (COME & GET ME, COPPERS!!)
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To: jwparkerjr
"OK class, here’s your assignment. Can you spot the pattern here?"

{waving hand wildly} To perpetuate the *fear* begun a few years ago which in-turn rendered a lot of normally intelligent peoples to quivering blithering dolts precipitating the hopey changy thang ??? :o)

"If so, do you think it’s a good pattern or very worrisome pattern."

Moot question my friend, it's our future.
At least if and/or when the Pavlov's Dog shtick's figured out -OR- said PD shtick's no longer effective for obtaining the desired and totally predictable reaction(s)/result(s).

"Extra credit: Tell us how the recession can end with several hundred thousand jobs a week being lost, the deficit rocketing to new highs and the printing presses working full time to print money that is backed by nothing."

{waving hand wildly, again It can't. {yea, i'm a brown nose...LOL}

As designed. LOL

10 posted on 10/28/2009 6:46:43 AM PDT by Landru (COME & GET ME, COPPERS!!)
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To: Landru; FBD

“No-no-NO.
“U.S. consumers unexpectedly turned decidedly more pessimistic in October...”

They were furious, and as good little dutiful “soon to be slaves”, they elected a communist puppet who represents the very thieves who took our economy down.....LMAO!


11 posted on 10/28/2009 8:20:16 AM PDT by stephenjohnbanker (Pray for, and support our troops(heroes) !! And vote out the RINO's!!)
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To: Son House
Bailed out financial institutions are driving the price up with their magic Bernanke monopoly dollars.

If gas stays expensive, don't count on a fast recovery.
12 posted on 10/28/2009 8:22:49 AM PDT by mysterio
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To: Landru; All

Anyone notice that the money supply has increased 120% since our Savior took office?

What does that portend?

In the late 70’s, we increased the money supply by 15%, and that got us a prime lending rate of 21 1/2 % for almost 2 years.


13 posted on 10/28/2009 8:27:46 AM PDT by stephenjohnbanker (Pray for, and support our troops(heroes) !! And vote out the RINO's!!)
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To: Landru

when has October ever been a good month, in the economy?
-But now the lamestream expects that to change, thanks to the “magical” Barky Oblah-blah...
-I guess they haven’t had their epiphany yet!


14 posted on 10/28/2009 8:28:22 AM PDT by FBD (My carbon footprint is bigger then yours)
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To: stephenjohnbanker; Landru
"...they elected a communist puppet who ..."

fascist, my friend, "fascist"...a much better system for corporate economic growth...


15 posted on 10/28/2009 8:33:19 AM PDT by FBD (My carbon footprint is bigger then yours)
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To: FBD

I agree.


16 posted on 10/28/2009 8:36:29 AM PDT by stephenjohnbanker (Pray for, and support our troops(heroes) !! And vote out the RINO's!!)
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To: stephenjohnbanker; FBD
"They were furious, and as good little dutiful 'soon to be slaves', they elected a communist puppet who represents the very thieves who took our economy down..."

Awwwwww c'mon, now!!
How could they resist.
Where's your compassion, where's your empathyyyyy?

Biden had it right when he commented about the beard being clean, clean-cut and well spoken et al ad nauseum.
Although the dork's comment was as racist as racist can be it did get people's attention *and* their approval and he, ol' Joe, the VPOTUS, too. I digress... LOL!!

Anyone notice that the money supply has increased 120% since our Savior took office?"

Wha-dat?
*Moneyyyyy Supply*??
zerO's the money supply.
I inasmuch heard residents on video saying so!! LOL

"What does that portend?"

To moi?
Ahhhhhhh, ehhhhhh, hmmmmmmm.
A tsunami of nothin' good? LOL

"In the late 70’s, we increased the money supply by 15%, and that got us a prime lending rate of 21 1/2 % for almost 2 years."

Uh-huh, and that was how long ago?
Lesee...70-80-90-'10...40 years. Jeepers, a Hebrew Generation! Considering today's populace has an attention span (& notice I did NOT say memory...that's another matter, altogether) marginally longer than the 7 seconds of the German Shepard's I trained in the MP K9 Corp?

Forgetaboutit.
You're speaking Latin.
Remember indeed. LOL

17 posted on 10/28/2009 8:42:56 AM PDT by Landru (Forget the pebble Grasshopper, you're a dolt.)
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To: FBD; Landru

“fascist, my friend, “fascist”...a much better system for corporate economic growth...”

Even the best of us get intellectually lazy at times. I used the word communist, instead of fascist, and you quite correctly called me on it ;-)


18 posted on 10/28/2009 9:05:13 AM PDT by stephenjohnbanker (Pray for, and support our troops(heroes) !! And vote out the RINO's!!)
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To: stephenjohnbanker
"I used the word communist, instead of fascist, and you quite correctly called me on it"

*Reminded*, my friend. LOL
One of those strange life-juxtapostions; since, you're usually reminding me.

Rare albeit beautiful day, up here.
Balmy, sunny & struggling to hit 60*.
Was compelled to roll the Zcar, burn some of that $80bbl oil.
Small price to pay for a li'l peace of mind. LOL ;^)

19 posted on 10/28/2009 11:09:56 AM PDT by Landru (Forget the pebble Grasshopper, you're a dolt.)
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To: Landru

“Balmy, sunny & struggling to hit 60*.
Was compelled to roll the Zcar, burn some of that $80bbl oil.
Small price to pay for a li’l peace of mind. LOL ;^)

It’s struggling to hit 60 here(cold front)

Get in that Vette, and claim some countryside!


20 posted on 10/28/2009 11:57:34 AM PDT by stephenjohnbanker (Pray for, and support our troops(heroes) !! And vote out the RINO's!!)
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