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Is the Next Bubble Unavoidable?
yahoo ^ | Oct 06, 2009 09:35am EDT | John Carney

Posted on 10/06/2009 8:02:28 AM PDT by BenLurkin

The Federal Reserve is now faced with a challenge that is akin to threading a needle by throwing a spool of thread across a football field. It is attempting to keep loose money and quantitative easing policies in place long enough not to stymie the nascent recovery while pulling them back in time to avoid massive inflation. It's a Hail Mary pass with an impossibly small target while facing a blitz.

In today's Wall Street Journal, Nouriel Roubini and Ian Bremmer lay out a series of policy prescriptions for how they think the Fed might be able to avoid creating another dangerous asset bubble without triggering a double-dip recession. They are very clear that this is an enormously difficult task--but even their assessment might be too optimistic.

Here's the problem. They agree that the operations of the Federal Reserve need to be subject to political review because it is clear that the New York Fed has been captured by Wall Street. The Fed's worries about its independence being compromised make no sense when it seems that its independence is already compromised to the our powerful financial firms.

But Congressional oversight is likely to result in pressure to keep monetary policy too loose for too long. There will be intense political pressure to repeat the "fateful mistake" of the last recession, keeping monetary policy too easy for too long.

Is there are way out? Unfortunately, the way out may be the way back. The government, including the Fed, need to restore the credibility of market processes by letting a too big to fail institution go insolvent. In short, we need another Lehman. And a policy that depends on failure to succeed is certainly not a happy one.

(Excerpt) Read more at finance.yahoo.com ...


TOPICS: Business/Economy
KEYWORDS: bhoeconomy; economy; fed; thecomingdepression
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1 posted on 10/06/2009 8:02:28 AM PDT by BenLurkin
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To: BenLurkin
Is the Next Bubble Unavoidable?

Of course. We've always had bubbles. Even (shhhh) before the Fed.

2 posted on 10/06/2009 8:04:45 AM PDT by Toddsterpatriot (Math is hard. Harder if you're stupid.)
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To: BenLurkin

What good are low interest rates when business owners know Zer0 is going to tax and regulate their businesses into oblivion when the economy picks up a little???


3 posted on 10/06/2009 8:05:49 AM PDT by RatRipper (I'll ride a turtle to work every day before I buy anything from Government Motors.)
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To: BenLurkin

The Fed knows no other way to operate. This is like asking “if I drive 15 miles to the store will I encounter a traffic light?”

It’s accepted by most that the Fed has been captured by Wall St. but it’ll be interesting to see Congress feign ignorance of this phenomenon as they pretend to be working “for da peeple”. Of course, Congress needs very little in the way of remedial training to exhibit ignorance.


4 posted on 10/06/2009 8:11:58 AM PDT by Attention Surplus Disorder (It's better to give a Ford to the Kidney Foundation than a kidney to the Ford Foundation.)
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To: BenLurkin

Bubble, bubble, toil and trouble...


5 posted on 10/06/2009 8:17:57 AM PDT by marstegreg
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To: RatRipper
The detrimental Hussein factor cannot be underestimated.
6 posted on 10/06/2009 8:19:05 AM PDT by BenLurkin (Brave amateurs....they do their part.)
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To: BenLurkin
When business is really strong we find that businesses tend to raise prices. Good old supply and demand. But not to the Fed. The Fed calls that INFLATION.

When the Fed prints money and flushes it into the banking system they are, in the Fed's Humble Option, simply working to keep the economy going. The Fed would NEVER call that INFLATIONARY. As long as business is NOT TOO GOOD, prices don't creep up and the Fed is HAPPY. But if business gets really going that's BAD. Time to raise interest rates.

This is the way things really are and it's simply NUTS. Ron Paul is right. Kill this thing before it eats all of us.

7 posted on 10/06/2009 8:20:54 AM PDT by InterceptPoint
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To: InterceptPoint

Frankly I think any gains the economy makes right now are artificial and will only be short-lived. I think over all the economy will get even worse, perhaps much worse, before it gets better. I do not see full recovery any time soon. Maybe not even next year.


8 posted on 10/06/2009 8:27:55 AM PDT by Ev Reeman
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To: BenLurkin
"the operations of the Federal Reserve need to be subject to political review because it is clear that the New York Fed has been captured by Wall Street."

So the Captains of Wall Street will get their profits (again) and we, the taxpayer, will provide the funds when the bubble bursts.

9 posted on 10/06/2009 8:31:56 AM PDT by I am Richard Brandon
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To: Canedawg
See #2 for a prime example of the mentality I spoke of on other thread. It's just a cycle...we'll come out of it....blah, blah, blah.

Meanwhile, gold up over $20 in last hours...over $1030. China/Russia/ME building coalition to drop $ - starting with oil transactions.

10 posted on 10/06/2009 8:33:39 AM PDT by anniegetyourgun
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To: BenLurkin

"When Bubbles Attack..."

11 posted on 10/06/2009 8:41:14 AM PDT by LomanBill (Animals! The DemocRats blew up the windmill with an Acorn!)
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To: BenLurkin
"The Federal Reserve is now faced with a challenge that is akin to threading a needle by throwing a spool of thread across a football field. It is attempting to keep loose money and quantitative easing policies in place long enough not to stymie the nascent recovery..."

Nascent recovery? Not in this country. The Fed Reserve needs to stop reading the news coming out of other countries. Their "nascent recoveries" have nothing to do with whats happening in this country, in fact they are happening IN SPITE of what's happening in this country, which is a slow, but continuing economic slide into a third world status.

12 posted on 10/06/2009 8:59:27 AM PDT by Nathan Zachary (rong east)
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To: InterceptPoint
"As long as business is NOT TOO GOOD, prices don't creep up and the Fed is HAPPY."

But prices are creeping up. The medias is just ignoring it. Your grocery bag now costs 32% more than it did last year. Obama media howqever, looks at the price of oil and uses that as it's inflation guide. Oil dropped $4 a barrel, so hence there is no inflation in their eyes. Our dollar is hovering around .76.2 cents, down from .95+ cents in January. That alone is a 20 cent reduction in spending power. Plus pump prices for gasoline haven't followed the drop in oil prices like they followed it when barrel prices were rising. You can see from these two things alone the massive amount of inflation that we have had over the past year.

13 posted on 10/06/2009 9:13:51 AM PDT by Nathan Zachary (rong east)
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To: LomanBill

LoL! that pic has excellent photo shop possibilities. Now all I need is some faces of the idiots Obama has running the show


14 posted on 10/06/2009 9:16:38 AM PDT by Nathan Zachary (rong east)
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To: BenLurkin

“The detrimental Hussein factor cannot be underestimated.”

Informed business people are very afraid of what this government has in store for them. I am a banker and I am very uncomfortable about what is going on and what I can envision on the horizon. What Washington is doing to our economy, our wealth, our national security, our sovereignty, and our freedom is nothing less than evil, criminal and unconstitutional.

People have done some horrible things to me in my life. But I have never been as disgusted and furious in my life as I am now at Obama and the DemocRAT Congess.


15 posted on 10/06/2009 10:34:47 AM PDT by RatRipper (I'll ride a turtle to work every day before I buy anything from Government Motors.)
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To: Nathan Zachary

Your grocery bag now costs 32% more than it did last year...

Yes, and the quantity per package is getting smaller, which many have not caught on to.


16 posted on 10/06/2009 11:29:26 AM PDT by ImaGraftedBranch (...And we, poor fools, demand truth's noon, who scarce can bear its crescent moon.)
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To: I am Richard Brandon
So the Captains of Wall Street will get their profits (again)

If only there were some way to tax those profits. LOL!

and we, the taxpayer, will provide the funds when the bubble bursts.

With the exception of the car companies and maybe AIG, we're probably going to make a profit on the TARP loans to banks.

17 posted on 10/06/2009 11:38:34 AM PDT by Toddsterpatriot (Math is hard. Harder if you're stupid.)
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To: Nathan Zachary
Our dollar is hovering around .76.2 cents, down from .95+ cents in January.

I don't know where you live, but in America, a dollar has been worth 100 cents for quite some time. Maybe you have something else in mind?

18 posted on 10/06/2009 11:41:46 AM PDT by Toddsterpatriot (Math is hard. Harder if you're stupid.)
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To: Nathan Zachary
Something like...


Bubbles with Bernie and Barry


...this?
19 posted on 10/06/2009 2:17:28 PM PDT by LomanBill (Animals! The DemocRats blew up the windmill with an Acorn!)
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To: Jeff Head

Fun with Photoshop ping...


20 posted on 10/06/2009 3:07:56 PM PDT by LomanBill (Animals! The DemocRats blew up the windmill with an Acorn!)
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