Posted on 09/26/2009 7:43:38 PM PDT by bruinbirdman
Private credit is contracting on both sides of the Atlantic. The M3 money data is flashing early warning signals of a deflation crisis next year in nearly half the world economy. Emergency schemes that have propped up spending are being withdrawn, gently or otherwise.
Unemployment benefits have masked social hardship unto now but these are starting to expire with cliff-edge effects.The jobless army in Spain will be reduced to €100 a week; in Estonia to €15.
Whoever wins today's elections in Germany will face the reckoning so deftly dodged before. Kurzarbeit, that subsidises firms not to fire workers, is running out. The cash-for-clunkers scheme ended this month. It certainly "worked".
Car sales were up 28pc in August, but only by stealing from the future. The Center for Automotive Research says sales will fall by a million next year: "It will be the largest downturn ever suffered by the German car industry."
Fiat's Sergio Marchionne warns of "disaster" for Italy unless Rome renews its car scrappage subsidies. Chrysler too will see some "harsh reality" following the expiry of America's scheme this month. Some expect US car sales to slump 40pc in September.
Weaker US data is starting to trickle in. Shipments of capital goods fell by 1.9pc in August. New house sales are stuck near 430,000 – down 70pc from their peak – despite an $8,000 tax credit for first-time buyers. It expires in November.
We are moving into a phase when most OECD states must retrench to head off debt-compound traps.
Britain faces the broad sword; Spain has told ministries to slash 8pc of discretionary spending; the IMF says Japan risks a funding crisis.
If you look at the sheer scale of global stimulus this year, what shocks is how little has been achieved. China's exports were down 23pc in
(Excerpt) Read more at telegraph.co.uk ...
If it is coming - why pay your debts off? I mean you should keep paying your debts and I am all in favor of Dave Ramset etc etc but you want to have a reserve in case it all falls apart.
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I tend to agree with you. I don’t get the pay all debt down aspect. I suggested to several people that I respect and they said that would not be a priority, but I’m open to hearing why it is.
Excellent post, as always from one of my favorite posters on FR. Scary times, very scary.
I’ve seen all of this information before...right before the markets shot up dramatically. I get so tired of all of this drivel. The stock markets do NOT follow ANY logical information. The stock markets ALWAYS go in the opposite direction that the financial news indicate they should go. The REAL economy, however, goes where it has to go and the little man suffers. No job, no money, no life. The bubble of lies has gotten so big that when it pops, yes you’re right, it is going to be far worse than the “Great Depression”. I guarantee you that the “big boys” will still be in charge and anyone who opposes them is going to suffer. I’m not interested anymore.
Let me tell you something. You, nor anyone else is going to be throwing anyone out. It's not going to happen. That is another piece of drivel I keep reading. If you try, YOU will be the one going down. This is all nonsense.
Clearly this is wrong - I mean - didn’t Joe Biden just announce we were in a recovery? /s
look up ruthless defaulting.
Plus - those of us who fortunate enough to still have jobs supporting us cannot dodge the bullet for long.
Everyone will eventually be affected if this does not turn around soon.
We’ve been conservative with spending because you just never know.
How long have you been married olrtex? Sometimes it takes quite awhile to train the spouse. Don't give up Brother. They all are trainable.
What we have seen are not plans for a recovery, but plans for the slow unwinding of the world economy. They had a choice last September/October to slowly unwind it or let the entire system come to an abrupt stop.
The bottom is finally becoming visible, but there will still be quite a bit of a free-fall. The countries like Russia, Iran, Venezuela, and others who had started hoarding gold several years ago will survive.
How will America do? It is hard to say as long as the democrats keep printing fiat money for fanciful programs and taking over key economic systems of the country. The move toward socialism/fascism will be our undoing.
A more apt policy would be to return the FRNs to a precious metal system and release the American people from their indebtedness. All that debt is not backed by gold in Ft. Knox, it is as stated backed by the “good faith and credit” of our citizens. It is backed by our ability to produce, not consume.
Most of the advice I’ve seen lately is to make minimum payments and reserve/save some cash.
I didn’t say it was gonna happen, I said it is what needs to happen.
You need to get a grip and quit taking this stuff all so personal.
The nation appears to be falling apart (look at the Drudge Report tonight). How can I not take it personally. The general populace appears to be turning animalistic, the moral foundations have so collapsed. How are you taking it?
“If you try, YOU will be the one going down”
It seems to me that you are the one turning animalistic.
You have perceived incorrectly. First, the Federal government is not going to tolerate anyone opposing government at this time. Second, a lot of people are apparently having trouble maintaing self-control. My observations are, I believe correct. Anyone opposing government is going to be squashed and people are turning on each other like animals.
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