Another Republican emerges in bid against U.S. Sen. Lincoln (Arkansas)

The field of candidates hoping to unseat U.S. Sen. Blanche Lincoln, D-Ark., in the 2010 election cycle grew even larger Tuesday with the announcement by Arkansas Sen. Gilbert Baker, R-Conway, that he is in the running.

“After encouragement from people all across the state and with the support of my family and close friends, I have decided that during this important time in our nation’s history, one should not be a political spectator. I believe that Arkansas’ next United States Senator should help provide checks and balances on the policies being pushed by Pres. Obama and the D.C. leadership,” Baker said in a statement announcing his candidacy.  

Baker said he will have a formal campaign launch in October, and said fundraising and outlining a clear conservative message are the keys to making it through the Republican field of candidates. (Link here for more on Baker’s announcement from Roby Brock with TalkBusiness.net.)

If the GOP plays its cards right, I could see them picking up this seat, Reid’s, Specter’s and Dodd’s. If we run the table, Boxer in California (yes I know California—but she has a strong opponent this time) could be toast as well. I realize we have a few to defend too but if the political climate stays favorable we could really push back the Dems significantly from their filibuster-proof majority.

Yes, Salazar’s former seat. Gov. Auggie Ritter appointed a fairly weak individual (former Denver Schools Chief), Michael Bennet to the seat (bypassing others who had actually won office and had more political seasoning - essentially Bennet’s a wonk). Bennet has money, as far as I know, but anemic reelect figures for the special election in ‘10 (as does Gov. Ritter). The former Dem. CO House Speaker Andrew Romanoff was being recruited to challenge the liberal Ritter from even further left by the state Unions, but he has now jumped into the race against Bennet. Romanoff may be technically stronger, but if he gets into a really ugly battle with Bennet, whomever emerges (anyone’s guess) is going to be seriously damaged.

We haven’t settled on the likely GOP candidate yet (though may end up being fmr. Lt Gov. Jane (no relation to Gale) Norton), but I expect if things remain the same (or worsen) nationally (as is almost a given), we will likely reclaim that Senate seat and the Governorship in CO next year (the latter probably with fmr. Congressman Steve McInnis).

Byrd was reelected in ‘06, so not up until ‘12, but as I wrote recently, I expected both Kennedy and Byrd to be dead probably before the ‘10 elections, so I included those in the analysis of the seats. The Governor of WV may try to appoint himself (Manchin, a “moderate”), although that can often backfire, although some other lady who had or does work for Byrd (the name escapes me) might run, and she is a liberal. WV should now be considered a GOP state for President (it certainly wasn’t from the 1932 until 2000), and all the Congressional districts voted GOP for President, and is too overrepresented with Dems.

WV also has the unfortunate distinction of having gone the longest of any state without a Republican Senator (the last one was elected for a 2-year term in 1956, defeated by Byrd in ‘58), even MA had a Republican until 1979. The likeliest candidate to run would be Shelley Moore Capito (although I personally think she’s too liberal). Her father, Gov. Arch Moore, came within an inch of knocking off Byrd’s seatmate, Jennings Randolph, in 1978 (had he won, he’d probably still be in that seat today, or at least would’ve until 1990, and Jay Rockefeller would never have made it to DC).

Randolph was considered “quite old” at 76 when he ran for his last term (indeed, he was just 30 when he was part of the FDR class that swept the WV Congressional GOP majority of the ‘20s out of office in ‘32, and in those days, there were 6 members from that state), but consider that if Byrd lives to 2012, and he will presumably run again, he’d be 95 at the start of that term, and just a month past 101 at its conclusion in January 2019 (meaning he’d break Strom Thurmond’s record of being the first person to be 100 serving in Congress ever). He turns 92 in November this year, but is in quite feeble shape (Thurmond was quite robust up until his last 2 years at 98).

I expected he might’ve been defeated in 1990 by one of the Dem Congressmembers (unless Rockefeller would’ve run against him in ‘84, although I think Moore would’ve been carried across to a second term by Reagan - remember the only Republican Senator defeated in ‘84 was Chuck Percy, and there weren’t a lot of Republicans crying over his defeat by Paul Simon). He was born the same year as Ted Stevens, so it’s possibly he would still be in office at 86 (just not terribly likely). He made a 3rd term comeback to the Governorship in ‘84, anyway (but lost in ‘88).

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