Posted on 08/31/2009 7:56:13 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
Based on the evidence I have seen this month, it looks as though the world moved out of recession in the second quarter. When we see the evidence for this, in the third-quarter data, it is likely that many areas will have returned to close to trend growth.
Just as many people responded to my column of August 10 suggesting that I was seeing things through some hazy, rose-tinted lens, I expect that many will respond in the same manner this time. In my last piece, I dubbed this recent crisis “Facebook Crisis”, its true distinguishing characteristic being lots more emotional and subjective judgments than during others. It is likely that, for a while, actual evidence of recovery will again be met by scorn from many quarters, not least because unemployment, which matters most to those affected, will be the last signal to turn.
Opinions about the crisis finishing are also likely to continue to vary by country. Some will escape — indeed, may already have — less damaged than others. In this regard, the UK might be more challenged than some countries, although this might not be as insurmountable as people assume.
Look at the evidence. For a start, after the release of many countries’ 2Q GDP accounts, the OECD, the club that includes all main rich countries, estimates GDP fell slightly, 0.1 per cent in its area. They also suggest that GDP fell 0.1 per cent in the narrower super-rich club of the G7 countries (although Canada doesn’t report its performance until today). For both groups, this is a vast improvement over recent quarters, reflecting some encouraging signs in the “older” countries that make up the narrow club. In particular, Japan, France and Germany all positively surprised, with Japan showing close to a 1 per cent quarterly gain,
(Excerpt) Read more at business.timesonline.co.uk ...
FYI, The author is an Economist for your favorite Investment Bank — GOLDMAN SACHS.
Did this person predict the future sucessfully before?
Interesting that the two laggards among the developed countries are the UK and USA — both of whom mounted massive “stimulus” spending.
Well I wonder - does this mean that Obummer also INHERITED the recovery (if there really is a recovery)?
A wave of the magic wand and the gravest crisis of the century is averted.
Yep. We have gone from Bush’s “worst economy” to Obama’s economic victory in one sleight of hand.
The magic negro and his commie politbureau have fixed it.
/sarc
To the author “Hey stupid look out the f%^kin’ window!”
Sorry, mate. Looking more like ‘V For Vendetta’ to me.
He!He! BULL$HIT!!!!!
It looks like there's been a "market recovery bubble" and we're in for another drop of monumental proportions.
Wonderful, Mr. O’Neill. I believe you. So give me a job.
Economist must be the only job, other than meteorologist, when it comes to keeping your job based on your successful predictions........
Let me get this straight. If I understand his article correctly, the “recession” ended in 2Q of this year because the economy is shrinking at a sustainable rate, which is just barely? The numbers all show and are expected to show that economies are still shrinking, but we should not consider growth as the indicator that the recession is over?
There seems to be a new measurement at work here that we can all get excited about. And forget that silly unemployment number, that’s the last thing to turn around anyway.
Funny, my memory isn’t quite what it used to be, but it seems about 24 months ago when all the new jobs that were being created were to be ignored because they were not “good” jobs. At least they are consistent here.
Never in modern times has there been such a flat contradiction between the euphoria of markets and the stern warnings of officialdom at central banks and financial watchdogs.
By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
Published: 10:00PM BST 29 Aug 2009
Corporate credit has seen the steepest rally in almost a hundred years, according to Morgan Stanley. Hedge funds are reviving the final bubble play of early 2007, writing put options on long-dated "volatility" contracts to wring out extra profit.
It is as if the Great Contraction – as the Bank of England now calls it – was just a random shock, as if we should naturally expect "V-shaped" resurgence to take us back to where we were. Yet that is what precisely we are being told will not and cannot happen.
"The current financial crisis is unlike any others," says the Bank for International Settlements. Lasting damage has been done. The "cumulative output loss" is likely to reach 20pc of GDP in the major economies.
[snip]
Of course.
In order to have the “W” shaped recession we’re headed for, we must have the “V” first. There’s just no other way to make a “W”.
;-)
estimates GDP fell slightly, 0.1 per cent in its area.
By objective standards, it is still a recession.
It could be a “W” or a “V”. We don’t know yet. Partly depends on whether Obama destroys what is left of the national economy. So far he has done his best to destroy it.
4% unemployment during Bush years = bad
10% unemployment during Obama months = good
any questions?
Insider Trading and Investor Sentiment Signaling U.S. Stock Market Top
Insider Selling in August Soars to 30.6 Times Insider Buying, Highest Level Since TrimTabs Began Tracking in 2004. NYSE Short Interest Plunges 10.3%, While Margin Debt Spikes 5.9%
SAUSALITO, Calif., Aug. 28 /PRNewswire/ — TrimTabs Investment Research reported that selling by corporate insiders in August has surged to $6.1 billion, the highest amount since May 2008. The ratio of insider selling to insider buying hit 30.6, the highest level since TrimTabs began tracking the data in 2004.
“The best-informed market participants are sending a clear signal that the party on Wall Street is going to end soon,” said Charles Biderman, CEO of TrimTabs.
Link originally posted by FromLori http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/2328551/posts?page=6#6
God made economists just to make meteorologists look good.
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