The First Election of the Obama Backlash

Townhall.com ^ | August 28, 2009 | Michael Gerson

[Kaslin]

The late-night hotel desk clerk in Salem, Va., -- after my long drive from Washington down the Shenandoah Valley -- wanted to talk political philosophy. He intended to support Republican Bob McDonnell for governor in November on Madisonian grounds. "I vote both parties, but I don't want anyone having all the control." Obama, in his view, needed to be checked and balanced.

This is the durable tendency of Virginia politics. Since 1977, the political party that has won the presidency has, in every case, lost the Virginia governorship in the next election. This pattern of cussedness is holding, at least for the moment. McDonnell, Virginia's former attorney general, is currently well ahead of his Democratic opponent, Creigh Deeds -- in one poll leading by 15 percent among likely voters.

McDonnell, riding in a well-worn, 30-foot blue RV from dairy farm to winery to college campus, recounts to me how the political environment has changed from a year ago. "The business community," he says, "was the first to recoil" from policies such as card check and cap-and-trade. "But health care now dwarfs previous concerns -- handing over the best medical system in the world to the federal government. It affects everyone." Conservatives, he contends, are more activated than at any time since 1993. A young McDonnell campaign worker told me: "We have the enthusiasm Obama's people had last time."

[iopscusa]

The first clue about the coming blowback on the Rat Agenda was when that uberRat, Terry McAuliffe with his big $$$’s was pitched out on his ear in the primary by the dipwad, ratbastid Deeds, now the Rat candidate who has previously enjoyed a statewide election shellacking by McDonnell, the R Gov candidate. Real-Clear-Politics had a good preview of this race from 2/09 here: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2009/02/virginia_governors_preview_1.html

[fieldmarshaldj]

Sounds like it needs a friend. Go put a McDonnell sign next to it (or two). ;-D

[kabar]

Don’t bet on it in NJ. Election fraud will carry the day if the votes aren’t there.

[Maverick68]

Exactly.
I think we should all just refuse to vote in any election, because as we’ve been told ad-infinitum on Free Republic, it just won’t do any good.

[wagglebee]

now the Rat candidate who has previously enjoyed a statewide election shellacking by McDonnell

I would not exactly call McDonnell's victory in 2005 a "shellacking", if memory serves it was a couple hundred votes.

[kabar]

I have seen Deeds signs in NoVA. There was a big one outside South Lakes HS where Moran had his townhall meeting. I have also seen them on Rt 123.

[wagglebee]

I figured there would be some up there. But if the polls show anything, it’s that it’s impossible to win with just NoVA. NoVA and either Richmond or Hampton Roads will probably win, but just NoVA won’t.

Deeds new strategy of portraying himself as very pro-abortion may play in NoVA, but it will destroy him in the rest of the state.

[advance_copy]

after my long drive from Washington down the Shenandoah Valley

That would be "up" the Senandoah Valley. When you are driving south, you are going up the Vallley not down it. For the Shenandoah River flows from south to north.

[kabar]

Give me a break. I live in VA and will vote. And if I lived in NJ, where I was born (Jersey City), I would vote there as well. I know NJ politics. My grandfather was a ward heeler for Frank Hague. The Dem political machine in NJ is just as corrupt as the Daley machine in Chicago.

Every election cycle, we are led to believe that NJ is in play only to be disappointed on election day. If Christie wins, it will not be a shellacking of Corzine. It will be a close vote.

[MayflowerMadam]

Exactly. Even though we truly had 90% of the votes, how likely is it that there will ever be another fair election in America again? No matter how active we become, and how many people show up to vote the right way, at the polling places there will be thugs with clubs, activists as precinct workers, and manipulation of the voting machines. We will never win another election.

[kabar]

One third of the votes are in NoVA. Richmond, Norfolk, and other large cities will go Dem. If McDonnell can split up here in NoVA or lose by a relatively small margin, he will win.

If McDonnell and the Reps can't win this year, then we might as well color this state blue. You can bet that the Dems will be pumping large amounts of money into the state as we get closer to the election. And Obama will get involved if Deeds thinks it will help him. With Obama's decline in the polls, Deeds may not want such help, which will just energize the Rep base even more.

[nina0113]

Oh, it’s got LOTS of McDonnell friends. They’re all so much bigger that I’m afraid this little guy’s feelings are hurt. It wasn’t HIS fault the sign shop printed “Deeds” on him.

Seriously, I don’t know if Deeds really doesn’t have any money (which would mean that all the serious supporters have written him off) or he’s just not bothering to spend it in Spotsylvania (which would mean he’s written US off). It’s all good.

[Haiku Guy]

Don’t bet on it in NJ. Election fraud will carry the day if the votes aren’t there.

If it is not close,
As the wise old saying goes,
Then they can not cheat.

[fieldmarshaldj]

Oh, he’ll get money. The rodents always find a way to get money, even if they have to go to George Soros or Red China.

[Vigilanteman]

ObaMao: Fake black man. Fake Messiah. Fake American. How many more fakes can you crowd into one Zer0?

[wagglebee]

One third of the votes are in NoVA. Richmond, Norfolk, and other large cities will go Dem.

Richmond itself is fairly small. Generally, when people talk about Richmond they also mean Henrico, Chippenham, Chesterfield and Midlothian counties which are usually solidly GOP.

Norfolk and Portsmouth will go to the 'Rats, but Virginia Beach, Chesapeake and Suffolk generally go GOP.

Even in NoVA I've noticed that it get's considerably less liberal outside Fairfax, Loudon, Arlington and Alexandria.

I think the recent elections in Virginia have been quirks rather than an indication of what's to come:

1. Kilgore's campaign SUCKED and he really miscalculated when he decided to make the death penalty an issue.

2. Webb didn't win so much as Allen screwed-up and the media turned it into something it wasn't.

3. Gilmore NEVER had a chance against Mark Warner and neither did anyone else.

[iopscusa]

Wag, I don't know much about VA politics but the shellacking descriptive was used by RCPolitics, I think, for the previous statewide McDonnell vs Deeds election.

[wagglebee]

That may be the description used, but it was just over 300 votes out of nearly 2 million cast:

http://www.sbe.virginia.gov/ElectionResults/2005/nov2005/html/

[kabar]

Richmond itself is fairly small. Generally, when people talk about Richmond they also mean Henrico, Chippenham, Chesterfield and Midlothian counties which are usually solidly GOP.

I have been a resident of VA since 1979. Richmond went for Obama 73,623 to 18,649.

Norfolk and Portsmouth will go to the 'Rats, but Virginia Beach, Chesapeake and Suffolk generally go GOP.

Norfolk went for Obama 62,819 to 24,814. Portsmouth went for Obama 32,327 to 13,984. Va Beach went for McCain 100,319 to 98,885. Chesapeake went for Obama 53,994 to 52,625. Suffolk went for Obama 22,446 to 17,165.

Even in NoVA I've noticed that it get's considerably less liberal outside Fairfax, Loudon, Arlington and Alexandria

Fairfax County went for Obama 310,359 to 200,994. Alexandria went for Obama 50,473 to 19,181.

Obama won VA by about 235,000 votes. It is obvious that Obama piled up a huge amount of votes in the cities and NoVA, which makes it very difficult to overcome in the rest of the state.

I think the recent elections in Virginia have been quirks rather than an indication of what's to come:

The demographics of VA are rapidly changing due to migration and immigration, legal and illegal. In 1990 the population was 6,187,358. Whites totaled 4,791,739 Blacks totaled 1,162,994 and Asians 159,053. Hispanics were 160,288.

In 2000, the population was 7,078,515. Whites totaled 5,120,110. Blacks totaled 1,390,293. And Asians 261,025. Hispanics were 329,540.

As of July 2008, the estimated population was 7,769,089. Whites totaled 5,673,913. Blacks totaled 1,546,444. And Asians 378,226. Hispanics were 531,396.

Note that Hispanics can be of any race. If you look at these figures you will see that minorities are becoming a larger percentage of the population. Combine that with the white liberals who are moving into NoVA as part of a growing federal government and lobbies and you have a large Dem constituency.

These figures come from the Bureau of the Census.

[wagglebee]

My sense, and I may be wrong on this is that Obama benefitted from a lot of black voters who would ordinarily not vote. Across the country, A LOT more people voted than normal (131 million in 2008 vs. 122 million in 2004), it is unlikely that this will happen again.

If you look at the 2005 election, the GOP won the Lt. Governor and Attorney General, but lost the Governor’s race. This would seem to indicate that it had more to do with Kilgore’s horrible campaign than anything else.