If McDonnell and the Reps can't win this year, then we might as well color this state blue. You can bet that the Dems will be pumping large amounts of money into the state as we get closer to the election. And Obama will get involved if Deeds thinks it will help him. With Obama's decline in the polls, Deeds may not want such help, which will just energize the Rep base even more.
Richmond itself is fairly small. Generally, when people talk about Richmond they also mean Henrico, Chippenham, Chesterfield and Midlothian counties which are usually solidly GOP.
Norfolk and Portsmouth will go to the 'Rats, but Virginia Beach, Chesapeake and Suffolk generally go GOP.
Even in NoVA I've noticed that it get's considerably less liberal outside Fairfax, Loudon, Arlington and Alexandria.
I think the recent elections in Virginia have been quirks rather than an indication of what's to come:
1. Kilgore's campaign SUCKED and he really miscalculated when he decided to make the death penalty an issue.
2. Webb didn't win so much as Allen screwed-up and the media turned it into something it wasn't.
3. Gilmore NEVER had a chance against Mark Warner and neither did anyone else.