Report: Closing Schools Wouldn't Ward Off Virus

ap ^ | Aug 25, 2009 5:21 am US/Pacific

[BenLurkin]

Health and Human Services Secretary Kathleen Sebelius said Tuesday that a massive school closing wouldn't stop the spread of the swine flu virus, saying vaccinations must be the defense against a menace that one report said could infect up to half of the population.

"What we know is that we have the virus right now traveling around the United States," Sebelius said in a nationally broadcast interview. "And having children in a learning situation is beneficial ... What we learned last spring is that shutting a school down sort of pre-emptively doesn't stop the virus from spreading."

Sebelius appeared on NBC's "Today" show one day after a special presidential advisory panel presented a grim report to the Obama White House, saying among other things that a "plausible scenario" for the United States later this year is wide-scale infections, possibly 30,000 to 90,000 deaths, mostly among young children and young adults, and perhaps as many as 300,000 sick enough to require intensive care unit treatment at hospitals.

Asked in the interview what people should do while awaiting the arrival of a vaccine, with first supplies likely by October but most not until the Thanksgiving season, Sebelius said: "I think it's important that people begin to anticipate that we will have a vaccine. We think it's likely that we're going to need two shots for the vaccine."

She said people should plan ahead for this, particularly those with pre-existing medical conditions, pregnant women and health care industry workers.

Sebelius said federal health authorities also are recommending that people should immediately get their regular "seasonal" flu vaccine to bolster their health for the scenario yet to play out later this year regarding the swine flu virus.

[Sacajaweau]

This swine flu and the yet to come vaccine is nothing more than an advertising campaign for federal intervention “to save us” and pay off the pharmaceuticals.

[khnyny]

A 26 year old man from Brazil recently died (8/14) of H1N1 on Martha’s Vineyard. He had no underlying health conditions.

http://www.mvtimes.com/marthas-vineyard/news/2009/08/20/h1n1-death.php

[john in springfield]

It is NO more deadly than any other form of flu, for cryin’ out loud.

Sorry, your statement is simply untrue.

[netmilsmom]

My daughter’s kindergarten teacher had all of us bring in Clorox wipes, Lysol spray and hand sanitizer. The lady was obsessive about cleaning the classroom. Before they left the room each day, every kid wiped down everything.

Yet, my daughter ended up with 37 days that she was sick.
When she got it, my little one got it and then the little one ended up with a UTI because of a tipped kidney.

I pulled her out of school and both built up some immunity. They are rarely sick and mostly sniffles.

Quarantine is the only way to stop an epidemic.

[netmilsmom]

You mean no “diagnosed” underlying health conditions.
I’d like to see the autopsy on him.

Drug use? Overweight? Smoker?

[netmilsmom]

Your article says this...

“The virus appears to have sent hoards of people to their beds, but few - in percentage terms - to the hospital.”

It’s a flu. People get it no matter what the Letters and Numbers it’s tagged with. I’m not seeing 90,000 dead in the Southern Hemisphere.

[SandWMan]

Well, how many have died from this most heinous threat to mankind?

[khnyny]

I suggest you read the article if you haven't already. The hospital/health care community is being quite tight lipped. My guess is they're concerned about lawsuits.

[mysterio]

It’s hard to know how many it will kill this winter. The 90k number is a scenario in which it kills a little less than three times the number the regular flu kills each year in the US (34,000 to 36,000). It is my hope that the vaccine is an effective one and that prevention measures and general awareness lower that 90k figure significantly.

[netmilsmom]

>>It’s hard to know how many it will kill this winter.<<

It’s winter where your article takes place. Where are all the deaths?

They are drumming up a crisis. Remember, this flu has not only been around for almost a year by Christmas, but also has a component of the same flu we got as kids. That’s why seniors are not high on the list of vaccines. They have immunities. LOTS of people have already built immunities to this.

There is also the fact that the farther away a flu gets from ground zero, the weaker it is. A flu is not designed to kill a host. It is designed to perpetuate itself. If the flu killed everyone who got it, the flu would die out quickly. People are going to get sick. Those who get secondary infections could be in trouble. We have antibiotics to treat secondary infections.

If people were dropping like flies in the southern hemisphere, I’d be concerned. They aren’t. They are getting the flu, it sucks but they recover.

[netmilsmom]

This guy?

He doesn't look like he missed many meals. And what else was he into.
Do you really expect that doctors in Martha's Vineyard to be talking freely? Really? Especially if this is a manufactured crisis? Come on!

[john in springfield]

Let’s go more to the point: CFR (case fatality rate) for H1N1 is probably around 0.5%. There was a recent estimate here of 1%, but with possible underreporting of total cases, we’re probably back down to 0.5%.

This makes H1N1 roughly 5 times more deadly than the typical seasonal flu. Aside from that, we have no herd immunity, so we’re looking at probable widespread infection in the US come flu season.

If we do absolutely nothing on vaccine, 1/3rd of US population infected over the next two years (a reasonable estimate given past history of spread of new viruses such as this one) would produce around 500,000 deaths. This would be roughly 160 times as many people as died in 9/11. Of course, these would be slow, rolling, less noticeable deaths over the course of a couple of years, instead of one sudden and dramatic event.

That’s NEVER going to happen, since we’re looking at widespread vaccination that will minimize the impact of this bug. But a statement that this flu is “simply no worse than the regular flu” is asininely wrong.

[RinaseaofDs]

Only a ‘remain at home’ restriction would make a difference. Travel would have to be highly regulated. It wouldn’t be long before the bug would start decimating law enforcement and the military especially (bivouacing would make it spread like mad among the military - there’s an article about the 61 reporting new AF cadets that caught the bug and were quarantined.)

Before long, they wouldn’t be able to enforce the order, but people will stay put to protect themselves. You may also see a culling of household pets since the bug has shown an ability to jump from human to animal and back again.

All depends on how effective the shot’s going to be, and whether the anti-virals will stand up to what’s coming, if it comes.

If it’s bad enough, will they name it ‘Captain Tripps?’

[khnyny]

Calm down, dear lol.:)

[netmilsmom]

>>Aside from that, we have no herd immunity,<<

Um, look up the reason why seniors are low on the priority list. “The experts” state that seniors have immunity to one component of this flu, because most likely, they already had that part.

This is a manufactured crisis.

I wouldn’t be surprised if the reason why they won’t close schools is because, IF and I mean if, it does go to pandemic, they don’t want to close the borders.

[netmilsmom]

Huh?

[john in springfield]

HOWEVER - having said that - I WILL give it this.

We AREN’T seeing a huge number of deaths in Australia. Given some of the past history of this bug to date I would’ve expected a lot more deaths by now.

So it may be that it has recently taken a turn for the milder.

[john in springfield]

Um, look up the reason why seniors are low on the priority list. “The experts” state that seniors have immunity to one component of this flu, because most likely, they already had that part.

True. A more accurate statement on my part would have been "We have LOW herd immunity," or "Our population below about age 52 reportedly has no immunity."

[NELSON111]

Stop it. You’re not allowed to make sense. ;-)

Uhhh...good question but one asked without really knowing the answer...obviously. If the poster had really KNOWN the answer...they would have known that Australia has been hit hard...as well as Argentina. Argentina is just coming out of their season...they've experienced about a 2% mortality rate and their hospital beds have been so full that there has been no room. It is just now that beds are available.

So...ask yourself: If a normal mortality rate for seasonal flu is .1%...and we are experiencing a 1% mortality rate...and at the height it could be as high as 2%...doing a little math...and if 40% get it...we could see 1.2-2 million deaths...compared to 36K.

The good news coming out of the southern hemisphere is that it is not mutating. The DNA sequence is still the same as that seen last spring. That was the biggest fear.

[mysterio]

It’s winter where your article takes place. Where are all the deaths?

From the article :

Flu behaves differently in tropical countries, explains Dr. Anthony Mounts, an expert with the WHO's global influenza program. In the tropics flu peaks a couple of times a year, but at neither point is there as much flu activity as is seen during a true winter wave such as Canada or the countries of Northern Europe experience.