It’s hard to know how many it will kill this winter. The 90k number is a scenario in which it kills a little less than three times the number the regular flu kills each year in the US (34,000 to 36,000). It is my hope that the vaccine is an effective one and that prevention measures and general awareness lower that 90k figure significantly.
>>It’s hard to know how many it will kill this winter.<<
It’s winter where your article takes place. Where are all the deaths?
They are drumming up a crisis. Remember, this flu has not only been around for almost a year by Christmas, but also has a component of the same flu we got as kids. That’s why seniors are not high on the list of vaccines. They have immunities. LOTS of people have already built immunities to this.
There is also the fact that the farther away a flu gets from ground zero, the weaker it is. A flu is not designed to kill a host. It is designed to perpetuate itself. If the flu killed everyone who got it, the flu would die out quickly. People are going to get sick. Those who get secondary infections could be in trouble. We have antibiotics to treat secondary infections.
If people were dropping like flies in the southern hemisphere, I’d be concerned. They aren’t. They are getting the flu, it sucks but they recover.
Only a ‘remain at home’ restriction would make a difference. Travel would have to be highly regulated. It wouldn’t be long before the bug would start decimating law enforcement and the military especially (bivouacing would make it spread like mad among the military - there’s an article about the 61 reporting new AF cadets that caught the bug and were quarantined.)
Before long, they wouldn’t be able to enforce the order, but people will stay put to protect themselves. You may also see a culling of household pets since the bug has shown an ability to jump from human to animal and back again.
All depends on how effective the shot’s going to be, and whether the anti-virals will stand up to what’s coming, if it comes.
If it’s bad enough, will they name it ‘Captain Tripps?’