Posted on 08/20/2009 2:17:07 PM PDT by SonOfDarkSkies
Charlie Cook, one of the best political handicappers in the business, sent out a special update to Cook Political Report subscribers Thursday that should send shivers down Democratic spines.
Reviewing recent polling and the 2010 election landscape, Cook can envision a scenario in which Democratic House losses could exceed 20 seats.
"These data confirm anecdotal evidence, and our own view, that the situation this summer has slipped completely out of control for President Obama and Congressional Democrats. Today, The Cook Political Report’s Congressional election model, based on individual races, is pointing toward a net Democratic loss of between six and 12 seats, but our sense, factoring in macro-political dynamics is that this is far too low," he wrote.
(Excerpt) Read more at politico.com ...
Republicans have more seats to defend next year and 5 of those seats will be in states where the Pubbie incumbent is not running for re-election. 2012 and 2014 the Dems will have more seats to defend including several freshman seats. IF things are not going well, and they won’t be if this health thing passes, LOOK OUT BELOW Dems. At that point the One will wish he had never been elected in the first place
I think the dems will only hold seats in the bluest of blue districts so 20 to me is very low. Aren’t there something like 100 dems seats up for re election?
But the Dems will still be the majority even with a 20 seat loss, right?
+++++++++++
“noting a new Gallup poll showing Congress’ job disapproval at 70 percent among independents”
The Senate will only flip 5 seats. With the RINO votes not enough to block most bad bills.
++++++++++++++
We may stop this Health debacle with only 40 Rs in the Senate. 45 Rs seems like a luxury at the moment.
We’ve just got to get the conservative message out and keep up the pressure.
This is what happens when they try and screw the people.
+++++++++++++
Right.
And someone is going to kill the Emperor and blow up the new Death Star!
Yes indeed, we need a Gingrich and Boehner although astute is not magnetic, electrifying or catalytic.
The Republicans picked up over 50 House seats in ‘94 and 8 in the Senate.
I keep wondering about Delay. He is a political genius along with Gingrich. If both those two could get behind a house member that could lead the House GOP, then I would not bet against the GOP to take the House.
but the question is will they be so poor that 2012 turns into another Democrat year?
+++++++++++++
Like 1996 - we must avoid that!
I've been predicting 50 seats for a month...based on macro trends.
Having said that, it's much too early to be guessing on forecasts. Come back a year from now, Cook.
WE need to be poll watchers too. All Rep candidates have the ability to put a poll watcher into into each polling place just like dems do...at least here in FL.
A poll watcher in FL can go anywhere in the polling place except the actual voting area. The signing in area presents many opportunities to stop folks who are attempting to pull the wool over lightly trained workers eyes. And a few trips to the 50 ft line are necessary as well. I have not bothered to poll watch in past non presidential elections, but I think I will this time.
“As horrifying as it is to see the Obama Admin and the Democratic Congress attempt to destroy this nation, it does appear that 233 years later, the Founding Fathers’ Republic still works.”
Just keep in mind that the people in power now are arrogant and have no respect for law, history or precedent and that when they are thwarted they get enraged. Frankly, I think Obama and most Demrats are capable of ....anything.
House members are for only two years, Senators for 6(unfortunately).
Reviewing recent polling and the 2010 election landscape, Cook can envision a scenario in which Democratic House losses could exceed 20 seats.Obamacare will pass -- that disaster should ensure Demwit majorities for decades to come.
The Dims are insulting the very folks that put them in office. Fwank is profoundly demeaning to his constituency.
"What's the matter with you people...don't you know that I know best for you little folks."
He needs security just to stand in front of these good Americans...they want to tar and feather him!
Not anymore. Not since 1938 (when 80ish seats were gained by the Republicans) has their been more than 55 seats lost in a single election - with 54 lost in 1994. Gerrymandering has made only 50-60 seats (maybe even less today) vulnerable to change. We are seeing about the fewest Republican Representatives that's possible right now - and conversely, the Dems are just about at their limit.
I personally don't think that 50 is possible again, because of the additional gerrymandering since 1994. I think if the Republicans have a really, really extraordinary year, you're looking at a 45-46 seat change - which is still very significant.
This entire administration is a departure from reality. But the return trip is hell!
Agreed. We can’t depend on the population getting involved all the time though. I believe they will get involved when they bring back the amnesty bill and hope they raise hell about cap and tax. However,45 is better than 40 every day of the week.
A poll watcher in FL can go anywhere in the polling place except the actual voting area. The signing in area presents many opportunities to stop folks who are attempting to pull the wool over lightly trained workers eyes. And a few trips to the 50 ft line are necessary as well. I have not bothered to poll watch in past non presidential elections, but I think I will this time.
+++++++++++++++
Excellent thoughts. We can beat them if we show up as concerned citizen activists!
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.