Posted on 08/20/2009 2:17:07 PM PDT by SonOfDarkSkies
Charlie Cook, one of the best political handicappers in the business, sent out a special update to Cook Political Report subscribers Thursday that should send shivers down Democratic spines.
Reviewing recent polling and the 2010 election landscape, Cook can envision a scenario in which Democratic House losses could exceed 20 seats.
"These data confirm anecdotal evidence, and our own view, that the situation this summer has slipped completely out of control for President Obama and Congressional Democrats. Today, The Cook Political Report’s Congressional election model, based on individual races, is pointing toward a net Democratic loss of between six and 12 seats, but our sense, factoring in macro-political dynamics is that this is far too low," he wrote.
(Excerpt) Read more at politico.com ...
Only 20 seats? I was hoping for the biggest interdimensional crossrip since the Republican landslide of 1994!
You are about 20 posts late.
20 seat flip is not good enough. We need at least 45 and preferably 70.
Yes. The current margin is 256 to 179, for a margin of 77 seats. If Republicans won 39 seats, they would have a bare majority. In practice, a margin of 10 to 20 seats is needed for secure control, meaning that winning or switching 45 to 50 seats must be the goal.
The NRCC already has a target list of 70 seats, and another 10 or so are expected to be added. Many of the target districts voted for Bush and McCain but went Democrat when Rahm Emmanuel recruited and won with relatively conservative House candidates.
In 2010, these “Blue Dogs” will have to defend numerous liberal votes, high deficits, unemployment in excess of 10%, and association with the increasingly unpopular Obama and Nancy Pelosi. Historically, the party out of power tends to gain House seats in the mid term elections.
At this point, the smart money would bet on large Republican gains in the House but not enough to take control.
...............Polls indicate we might be able to beat:........
And let’s remember that Kennedy’s seat will be vacant, which “might” be able to turn Pubbie;
And Byrd will most probably be so senile next year he’s history
“You are about 20 posts late.”
I haven’t read the other posts but I suspect lots of Freepers caught your mistake.
Yes, you strike me like one who does not read the posts.
Kennedy’s seat will not be vacant whether they appoint a successor in Mass as Teddy currently wants the state to do (would require a change in the law) or hold a special election within 5 months of him vacating the seat as the law currently requires. AND it’s Massachusetts so whoever replaces him will be a Dem. Unless it’s a Socialist.
Latest from the Chevy Chase branch of the family
You wait until unemployment hits 15% in 2010 and the stock market plunges down to 6000 points. Incumbents are going to safe NOWHERE!! The Rats are going to get harder than they can imagine. This is the beginning of the end of big-government and the country club ruling class in the United States. Atlas is going to shrug and this country is going to explode. There is nothing that can be done to stop it.
There will be unlimited funds available for buying the election. After all it is the Chicago way. God help us, God help us all.
“There will be unlimited funds available for buying the election.”
I am not sure about that.
only 600 or so sign up. far cry from volcano I am sad to say
The Republicans are not prepared to assume the majority. If they were to win a majority in 2010, the preponderance of the evidence is that they would immediately f**k up.
To turn this Democrat debacle into long-lasting success, we need a Gingrich and we don't have one right now.
Yeah, and?
He will be defeated.
The Senate is staggered. A third is up for election every two years (although we will have more than a third this time since we’ve had several senators appointed due to vacancies, Hillary’s, Obama’s, Biden’s, and Salazar’s seats)
But the entire House of Representatives is up for re-election every two years, without exception.
It is only been up for a few hours today and is now linked on Facebook. We are a long way from Nov 2010. Just read the comments and keep monitoring it. Remember the volcano has to erupt on 4 Nov 2010. I believe it will be ready to blow 3 months from now and when Election Day comes around this country will be on the verge of civil war.
That too. What I’m facetiously saying is that no matter what the outcome, I can’t believe that even snarlin’ Arlen would have the cheek to do another volte-face and attempt to be on the winning team, should that “team” be the Republicans. But then again you never know with these career Washington politicians, something about the place seems to leach the shame right out of them over time. Is that one of the symptoms of the notorious “Potomac fever”?
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