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Charlie Cook: Dem situation has 'slipped completely out of control'
Politico.com ^ | 8/20/2009 | Charles Mahtesian

Posted on 08/20/2009 2:17:07 PM PDT by SonOfDarkSkies

Charlie Cook, one of the best political handicappers in the business, sent out a special update to Cook Political Report subscribers Thursday that should send shivers down Democratic spines.

Reviewing recent polling and the 2010 election landscape, Cook can envision a scenario in which Democratic House losses could exceed 20 seats.

"These data confirm anecdotal evidence, and our own view, that the situation this summer has slipped completely out of control for President Obama and Congressional Democrats. Today, The Cook Political Report’s Congressional election model, based on individual races, is pointing toward a net Democratic loss of between six and 12 seats, but our sense, factoring in macro-political dynamics is that this is far too low," he wrote.

(Excerpt) Read more at politico.com ...


TOPICS: Front Page News; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: 111th; 2010midterms; bho44; cook; house2010
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To: SonOfDarkSkies

Only 20 seats? I was hoping for the biggest interdimensional crossrip since the Republican landslide of 1994!


41 posted on 08/20/2009 2:59:01 PM PDT by saganite (What would Sully do?)
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To: billhilly

You are about 20 posts late.


42 posted on 08/20/2009 2:59:07 PM PDT by Jewbacca (The residents of Iroquois territory may not determine whether Jews may live in Jerusalem.)
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To: Bobkk47

20 seat flip is not good enough. We need at least 45 and preferably 70.


43 posted on 08/20/2009 3:00:22 PM PDT by taxcontrol
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To: Bobkk47

Yes. The current margin is 256 to 179, for a margin of 77 seats. If Republicans won 39 seats, they would have a bare majority. In practice, a margin of 10 to 20 seats is needed for secure control, meaning that winning or switching 45 to 50 seats must be the goal.

The NRCC already has a target list of 70 seats, and another 10 or so are expected to be added. Many of the target districts voted for Bush and McCain but went Democrat when Rahm Emmanuel recruited and won with relatively conservative House candidates.

In 2010, these “Blue Dogs” will have to defend numerous liberal votes, high deficits, unemployment in excess of 10%, and association with the increasingly unpopular Obama and Nancy Pelosi. Historically, the party out of power tends to gain House seats in the mid term elections.

At this point, the smart money would bet on large Republican gains in the House but not enough to take control.


44 posted on 08/20/2009 3:01:18 PM PDT by Rockingham
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To: underbyte
History rhymes as they say - Stock market continues to tank, 1000 banks fail, Real estate continues to fall, dollar gets whacked in half, peoples taxes go through the roof, unemployment U6 number hit’s 25%, every pension fund and state is in default,,,,,

In other words we will return to the Dark Ages as a highly technical society collapses in on if self ---it will be mob rule
45 posted on 08/20/2009 3:01:56 PM PDT by uncbob
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To: Redmen4ever

...............Polls indicate we might be able to beat:........

And let’s remember that Kennedy’s seat will be vacant, which “might” be able to turn Pubbie;

And Byrd will most probably be so senile next year he’s history


46 posted on 08/20/2009 3:03:21 PM PDT by aShepard
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To: Jewbacca

“You are about 20 posts late.”

I haven’t read the other posts but I suspect lots of Freepers caught your mistake.


47 posted on 08/20/2009 3:05:28 PM PDT by billhilly
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To: billhilly

Yes, you strike me like one who does not read the posts.


48 posted on 08/20/2009 3:09:10 PM PDT by Jewbacca (The residents of Iroquois territory may not determine whether Jews may live in Jerusalem.)
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To: aShepard

Kennedy’s seat will not be vacant whether they appoint a successor in Mass as Teddy currently wants the state to do (would require a change in the law) or hold a special election within 5 months of him vacating the seat as the law currently requires. AND it’s Massachusetts so whoever replaces him will be a Dem. Unless it’s a Socialist.


49 posted on 08/20/2009 3:11:07 PM PDT by saganite (What would Sully do?)
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To: Andrewksu

Latest from the Chevy Chase branch of the family


50 posted on 08/20/2009 3:11:58 PM PDT by centurion316
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To: Rockingham

You wait until unemployment hits 15% in 2010 and the stock market plunges down to 6000 points. Incumbents are going to safe NOWHERE!! The Rats are going to get harder than they can imagine. This is the beginning of the end of big-government and the country club ruling class in the United States. Atlas is going to shrug and this country is going to explode. There is nothing that can be done to stop it.


51 posted on 08/20/2009 3:15:14 PM PDT by DarthVader (Liberalism is the politics of EVIL whose time of judgment has come.)
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To: workerbee

There will be unlimited funds available for buying the election. After all it is the Chicago way. God help us, God help us all.


52 posted on 08/20/2009 3:16:29 PM PDT by jesseam (Been there and done that!)
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To: jesseam

“There will be unlimited funds available for buying the election.”

I am not sure about that.


53 posted on 08/20/2009 3:17:50 PM PDT by DarthVader (Liberalism is the politics of EVIL whose time of judgment has come.)
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To: DarthVader

only 600 or so sign up. far cry from volcano I am sad to say


54 posted on 08/20/2009 3:22:58 PM PDT by mel
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To: Bobkk47
But the Dems will still be the majority even with a 20 seat loss, right?

The Republicans are not prepared to assume the majority. If they were to win a majority in 2010, the preponderance of the evidence is that they would immediately f**k up.

To turn this Democrat debacle into long-lasting success, we need a Gingrich and we don't have one right now.

55 posted on 08/20/2009 3:24:12 PM PDT by Jim Noble (I hope Sarah will start a 2nd party soon)
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To: Nonstatist
As recently as 2006 Reps had a majority in the House...

Yeah, and?

56 posted on 08/20/2009 3:26:08 PM PDT by Jim Noble (I hope Sarah will start a 2nd party soon)
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To: mrsmel
Look on the bright side-Arlen Specter won’t switch parties again, the ‘rats will be stuck with him.

He will be defeated.

57 posted on 08/20/2009 3:27:03 PM PDT by Jim Noble (I hope Sarah will start a 2nd party soon)
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To: Jewbacca

The Senate is staggered. A third is up for election every two years (although we will have more than a third this time since we’ve had several senators appointed due to vacancies, Hillary’s, Obama’s, Biden’s, and Salazar’s seats)

But the entire House of Representatives is up for re-election every two years, without exception.


58 posted on 08/20/2009 3:29:02 PM PDT by cotton1706
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To: mel

It is only been up for a few hours today and is now linked on Facebook. We are a long way from Nov 2010. Just read the comments and keep monitoring it. Remember the volcano has to erupt on 4 Nov 2010. I believe it will be ready to blow 3 months from now and when Election Day comes around this country will be on the verge of civil war.


59 posted on 08/20/2009 3:29:40 PM PDT by DarthVader (Liberalism is the politics of EVIL whose time of judgment has come.)
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To: Jim Noble

That too. What I’m facetiously saying is that no matter what the outcome, I can’t believe that even snarlin’ Arlen would have the cheek to do another volte-face and attempt to be on the winning team, should that “team” be the Republicans. But then again you never know with these career Washington politicians, something about the place seems to leach the shame right out of them over time. Is that one of the symptoms of the notorious “Potomac fever”?


60 posted on 08/20/2009 3:33:37 PM PDT by mrsmel (Put the Gitmo terrorists near Capitol Hill.)
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