Bart’s in my neighboring district, which continues to trend Republican, but the main problem we have with him, Lincoln Davis and Tanner is no first tier challengers have stepped forward. I think many are biding their time until 2012 when we redraw the lines with a GOP lean and an eye to driving out those three to give us a 7R-2D majority.
Cao is undoubtedly the one the RATs are going to be gunning for the most. Seeing a Republican win a majority black dtsrict that hasn't voted GOP was in the 1880s was one of those once-in-a-lifetime things like Reagan's 49-state landslide. I'm not ready to write his political tombstone yet though. It's possible the Dems could destroy each other in a huge messy primary (they will go all out since whoever wins in the primary is “guranteed” the seat in November) and Cao is saved by a huge GOP turnout at the top of the ticket in November. It would be a massive upset just like his ‘08 victory though.
I see Obama clone Dan Seals is trying to make a third attempt at winning Kirk's district after his 0-2 losing streak. With Kirk out of the picture, third time's the charm, eh? I hope the RATs nominate this guy again (he has some credible RAT politicians who entered the race hoping for the nomination though). Seals could be our very own Myrth York and give us an opening to make it possible for someone to the right of Kirk to get elected in that seat. Seriously, this guy Seals doesn't even live in the district and apparently has done nothing since 2006 besides continually run for office. Seals got 47% in 2008, and lest anyone think that's impressive, Obama got 61% in the same district (and they ran on identical platforms). Seals just ain't selling IMO.
I'm still trying to figure out how Tom Perriello defeated Virgil Goode, since Goode himself has only won that district as a RAT a decade ago by being a total DINO who voted like a Republican on all the major issues. It is a very conservative leaning district, even more so than party registration would suggestion.
Speaking of TN, I looked up the TN congressional district's and the Nashville based seat only has PVI rating of +3 Dem.(compared to the Memphis based seat which is overwhelmingly Dem with a rating of +23 for the RATs) I guess the city of Nashville may be one party RAT but there's significant GOP support in the Nashville suburbs. This looks like another district that is theoretically “winnable” for the GOP with the right candidate and a weak Dem, but will never happen because the GOP writes it off every year. (Kinda like how the GOP almost won Lane Evan's seat a couple of election cycles back, taking in 48% — and the Dems scrambled to make it more RAT for the 2002 redistrcitng by adding liberal university towns — but they will only managed to get a 5% advantage in party voters) I think that's an example why we're in the minority. The RATs manage to make it hell for Republicans in districts that favor our guys by double-digit margins, but a bunch of districts that are the RATs only have 3-5% margin of support have become “safe RAT” with entrenched incumbents.
Gordon is in big big trouble. Rutherford and Sumner Counties are becoming deeper Republican than ever before.