The Economy Is Even Worse Than You Think

Wall Street Journal ^ | July 14, 2009 | Mortimer Zuckerman

[Zakeet]

The recent unemployment numbers have undermined confidence that we might be nearing the bottom of the recession. What we can see on the surface is disconcerting enough, but the inside numbers are just as bad.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics preliminary estimate for job losses for June is 467,000, which means 7.2 million people have lost their jobs since the start of the recession. The cumulative job losses over the last six months have been greater than for any other half year period since World War II, including the military demobilization after the war. The job losses are also now equal to the net job gains over the previous nine years, making this the only recession since the Great Depression to wipe out all job growth from the previous expansion.

Here are 10 reasons we are in even more trouble than the 9.5% unemployment rate indicates:

[Snip]

This process is nowhere near complete and, until it is, the economy will barely grow if it does at all, and it may well oscillate between sluggish growth and modest decline for the next several years until the rebalancing of excessive debt has been completed. Until then, the economy will be deprived of adequate profits and cash flow, and businesses will not start to hire nor race to make capital expenditures when they have vast idle capacity.

No wonder poll after poll shows a steady erosion of confidence in the stimulus. So what kind of second-act stimulus should we look for? Something that might have a real multiplier effect, not a congressional wish list of pet programs. It is critical that the Obama administration not play politics with the issue. The time to get ready for a serious infrastructure program is now. It's a shame Washington didn't get it right the first time.

[Zakeet]

Much more about Obozo's depression is contained in the sobering article. It's worth a read IMHO.

[Eye of Unk]

lets just theorize what would the markets do if suddenly Obama steps down, out and away?

[Mr Ramsbotham]

The time to get ready for a serious infrastructure program is now.

No, moron, the time to get ready for a serious tax reduction program is now.

[momincombatboots]

Exactly right.. Here in Western N Carolina, I asked the mayor who is going to pay for the sidewalk, covered bus benches and new buses maintenance, not to mention gas, oil and drivers? This stimulus is like buying a homeless and jobless person a car and a house and expecting him to pay for gas and upkeep. She was not very happy with my question. We have a local radio station here with a call in talk show that is all local politics. I am lucky because we can call in or work thru the chat room. If there is one in your area, start asking these hard questions.

[Western Phil]

It's a shame Washington didn't get it right the first time.

I'm sure none of them have read the stimulus bill they passed. (Or cap & trade, or will read the health care bill)

[ballplayer]

The problem is the Democrats will just yell that Tax Revenues are Cratering now and you want to cut taxes ?

[alreadythere]

Hey, Zuckerman, you’re WAY late.

WE already know the economy is worse than what the talking heads blabber about. Many of us knew it was going to go free fall since November 2008. Actually, it started in anticipation of OB.

Eye of Unk: “lets just theorize what would the markets do if suddenly Obama steps down, out and away?”

They’d soar — only if his corrupt, narcissistic administration and Congress goes down with him, and we throw out everything they’ve done since the man/child Emperor was crowned.

[Lonesome in Massachussets]

lets just theorize what would the markets do if suddenly Obama steps down, out and away?

Markets hate uncertianty and surprises. Initially, they would drop, as it would raise questions about the political stability of the United States. (Al Gore put a huge question mark there with his shennagians in Florida in 2000. I doubt he cares.)

Long term, the answer is, "it depends", mainly on how things settle out.

[lucky american]

Here in N.H. we are getting newly paved roads.Pike Industries, United Construction(in my area) is doing most of it. I don’t see a whole bunch of people being hired as these guys and gals already worked for them. Summer is their busiest time anyway. I guess traffic control is about the only upshot in hiring. Funny thing, what good are new roads if there is no one to drive on them?

[scooby321]

Every town I see is like a war zone business closng and even Democrats are blaming Zero now

[Leftism is Mentally Deranged]

The marxists in Washington know that, and are taking advantage of it to turn a once-prosperous country into a marxist hell-hole where THEY are treated like kings and the ordinary person has to stand on street corners and sell kitchen grease to make a living.

[library user]

Markets hate uncertianty and surprises. Initially, they would drop, as it would raise questions about the political stability of the United States.

Normally I would agree with what you said, except we're at a point now where markets would probably prefer uncertainly over guaranteed, long-term socialism.

[Lonesome in Massachussets]

The markets hold out hope for 2010 and 2012.

[M. Espinola]

'But Obama said, all the voters had to do is elect him and everything would be fine!'

[The Duke]

I caught myself musing the other day how many mules it would take to pull my Ford Expedition down the road?

Welcome to Obamaville!

[possumdawg]

I read somewhere yesterday that 350 million dollars of Stimulus money was used to employ 30 folks for twelve months. That's one heck of a salary.

[library user]

...which means 7.2 million people have lost their jobs since the start of the recession.

Yes, and the recession started in Dec. 2006; Democrats took control of both houses of Congress in Jan. 2006. Coincidence?

[wastoute]

Only Democrat libtards would think that the way to deal with cratering tax revenues is to raise taxes. I have heard the expression "dumber than a bag of hammers" but right now a bag of hammers looks pretty smart compared to Zero and his minions. Unless, of course, one is willing to assume his goal is to destroy our country.

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[Alberta's Child]

I’m not saying he’s wrong about this, but in light of the fact that Mort Zuckerman was one of Bernie Madoff’s most famous victims I’d wonder what kind of credibility he has on anything related to economics, finance, etc.

[iopscusa]

I'm tired of the Mortimer Zuckerman / Warren Buffett Lefty Millionaires and their idiotic comments about the history of failure of the socialistic D-RATS policies! Someone besides the CNBC mud-heads need to corral these dunderblusses and nail them on WTH they are thinking!