These are the missiles that will be used and possible air routes the Israelis might take for an attack.
Posted on 07/10/2009 11:21:36 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
Both the US and Israel believe Iran has the technical capacity to build one nuclear bomb within a year if it decides to do so, but both countries also believe the chances that Teheran will indeed make that decision are slim, according to assessments made known to The Jerusalem Post.
According to these Israeli assessments, there is not much difference now between the US and Israel regarding a timeline for a "worst case scenario" on Iran's development of a bomb. At the same time, both Jerusalem and Washington currently believe that "worst case scenario is not likely to materialize."
The assessments come in the wake of comments made Sunday by US Adm. Mike Mullen, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, to the effect that Iran could be as little as a year away from completing a nuclear bomb, while Mossad head Meir Dagan recently surprised many by saying Iran won't have a nuclear weapon until 2014.
"I would be careful about all the declarations on this matter," said one senior government official who deals with the issue, adding that a decision by Teheran to go full throttle toward the building of a bomb was dependent on numerous different decisions the government would have to make, and which it had simply not yet made.
In the meantime, the official said, the Iranians have decided to continue to enrich as much low grade uranium as they can, and to also continue development in the field of ballistic missiles at a level that would not make their situation with the international community much worse than it already is.
Some American and Israeli experts have long argued that, rather than pushing for a bomb the moment they can, the Iranians may want to gain the potential capacity, over a longer period, to build an entire nuclear arsenal - and then stay weeks or months away from final bomb-making but ready to make the ultimate push should they so choose.
The international community, meanwhile, signaled on Thursday that it was still keeping its eye on the nuclear issue, with the G-8 leaders giving Iran until late September to accept negotiations over the issue.
The US is still waiting for an Iranian answer to President Barack Obama's offer of engagement on the nuclear issue.
French President Nicolas Sarkozy said the situation would be reviewed at a G-20 meeting of developed and developing countries in Pittsburgh on September 24, and that "if there is no progress by then, we will have to take decisions."
A unilateral attack by Israel on Iran to thwart the Islamic republic's nuclear ambitions would be an "absolute catastrophe," Sarkozy was quoted by AFP as saying on Thursday after the G-8 summit in Italy.
From an Israeli perspective, the senior government official explained, the G-8 deadline included both positive and negative aspects.
On the positive side, there has been a degree of concern in Jerusalem since the events that followed the June elections in Iran that the international community would try to push back the timetable on the nuclear issue until the dust cleared in Teheran.
The G-8 statement, the official said, strengthened the sense in Jerusalem that the international community was sending a message that "time is of the essence," and that international stocktaking of Iran's position on the issue would take place regardless of Iran's internal situation.
On the negative side of the ledger from an Israel perspective, however, was that the G-8 deadline was also a sign the international community was sill locked into "engagement" mode, dashing any thinly held hope in Jerusalem that the Iranian regime's brutal repression of the protests there would lead toward immediate sanctions.
According to the senior government official, under the current timetable Iran had until September to give a decision on engagement. If the talks began, then by the end of the year - as Obama said in May during his meeting in Washington with Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu - there would be a reassessment of the situation, and a determination whether to continue dialogue or take more serious sanctions.
Regarding the contradictory messages that came out of Washington this week as to whether the US was giving Israel a green light for military action, with Vice President Joe Biden implying that a green light was being given, and Obama categorically denying that, the official said that Obama has been consistent in speaking against an Israeli military action.
What needed to be explained, the official said, were Biden's comments.
"Biden's comments seem to have come out of the blue," he said. "There has been no discussion with the US over the last few months about the possibility of an attack."
The official said it was also not clear how the recent events on the ground in Iran would impact on the nuclear issue.
On the one hand, he said, the protests have highlighted the vulnerability of the regime, which now appears significantly weaker than it was before the elections and their aftermath.
On the other hand, the official said, many believe that Iran's foreign policy and its policy on the nuclear issue will only become more intransigent as a result of the developments.
"There is a contradiction," the official said. "While the regime is more vulnerable than in the past to pressure from the international community, this may lead in the early stages to a hardening of its positions."
"When you are weak domestically, you can't show that you are weak externally as well. The opposite is true," he said. "You have to take a tougher stand with the world so they don't conclude that because you are under domestic pressure, you will fold under external pressure."
According to this logic, if the Iranians were willing to absorb the harsh international criticism that came with cutting down the reformers, then they would also be willing to absorb international censure in going forward with the nuclear program.
The international community, however, is now more prepared to impose serious sanctions on Iran than it was before the recent events, the official added.
Israel needs to just do it
The classic photo of the weeping Frenchman greeting the triumphant Nazis marching into Paris suggests itself--
I beg to differ--the catastrophe will be Rat Boy the Holocaust Denier getting the bomb so he can create the chaos of an attack on Israel to coax the Twelfth Imam from the well near Qum.
There would be your "absolute catastrophe"--not Osirak II.
Now just redo the map for the US in case we need to bomb DC
LOL
It seems everyone is waiting for or a nuclear test or for Iran to claim to have nukes. But Iran has never operated within expected protocol.
They could have nukes and be shipping them to terrorists and when one or more goes off they can more easily deny it came from them.
Iran wants these things for use.
Twelfth Imam bump
They will get Saudi permission. It is in the works.
I read it in a report somewhere. The Saudis have been playing around with the idea of having nuclear weapons. The have the delivery missiles though. They have been buying Chinese-made CSS-2 intermediate-range ballistic missiles.
I forgot to mention those Chinese made missiles can carry an hydrogen bomb.
That is an excellent question, one many keep asking, considering we have Iran's despotic Islamic régime surrounded from Afghanistan, Iraq, along with our Navy in the Persian Gulf. The only border left to Rat Boy and the Mullahmania is the Caspian Sea, and further to the north, Putin, feeding the Iranian dictatorship all the nuclear fuel they require, Russian anti-aircraft installations protecting their nuclear weapons plants, and Russian nuclear technicians making the unthinkable a dangerous reality.
Now Israel is stuck, alone, with a very difficult task, again (the first time when they took out Saddam's French built nuke weapons plant), since what lurks in the White House supports the enemy in Tehran.
I have been hearing the same “Iran can build the bomb in a year” thing for 10 years now.
Israel do somethign or stop crying so damn much. Iran is a hell of a lot closer to Israel then freaking America. Look at a damn map.
I concur with you & similar to Osama bin Laden sightings, bin Laden tapes, and bin Laden hideouts and the old standby- Where’s Osama bin Laden?
As long as those key nuclear sites are kaboomed, the centrifuges destroyed, the heavy water reactor destroyed, and their scientists are killed, by Israeli PGMs dropped from Ra’ams, Sufas or even Raptors (if they can get them).
Thanks to the feckless Islamophile Obama,Iran will nuke Tel Aviv and then Israel will nuke every Muslem population center (especially Mecca and Medina) in Asia.
Then we will have no choice but to drill for our own oil or every politician in America will be voted out.
As for Israel,the Jews are long masters at survival and since BHO’s inauguration,they have been preparing for this.
Some may need to understand that the attack on Bushear was barely able to be accomplished by the IDF back in the day...
The airspaces between them and Iran are not going to be available, and will be hostile to allow an attacking force to fly thru to get to the goal here...
They may have had a slim chance to do so if we were still in control of the Iraqi airspace, but that would have required additional political and logistical support from us in that case...
The attacking force will either hve had to have had tanker refueling support or landing facilities to give the elements conducting the attack a chance to succeed...Otherwise it might be a one way trip at best...Not too many of the best in the IDF are going to want to explore that...Not that they wouldn’t do it...It is a matter that if this is done...It will not be the end, and the repercussions Israel will have to endure (on its own, again) will be devastating, and the best in the IDF will be needed in that defense...They will not be allowed to sacrifice on this one mission...
And since the U.S. Administration is doing what they can to remove themselves from Iraqi infrastructure (air defense and airspace control), Obama is certainly giveing the Iranians a little breathing room...
Just my opinion...
Good point! Most people don’t realize that gun-barrel uranium bombs DON’T need to be tested - the US dropped one on Horoshima w/o a test. BUT - the more complex implosion-type plutonium bombs DO need to be tested, to avoid fizzles like the Norks had in 2006. Why have them, then? They are more compact triggers for Fusion bombs - one on each side of that device,, sandwiching the fusion material in the middle, for a bigger yield.
What are the chances that they'll get Iran's program right? And on what basis do they say that it's a slim chance that Iran will make the decision to assemble the bomb? This is the scariest part of the article. The arrogance, self-centeredness and plain stupidity of judging the Mullah's intentions is breathtaking. We'd be better off with the Boy Scouts running our intelligence services.
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