Posted on 07/05/2009 9:20:18 AM PDT by jpsb
I am really enjoying the pundits bewilderment over the calculus of Sarah Palin's resignation as governor of Alaska. I just want to point out that Sarah said she is seeking a “higher calling” and not a “higher office”. Observe also that she does not believe one needs a “title” to be an effective agent for change. Both comments indicate to me that her resignation is not, by design, the beginning of a national campaign for President of the United States.
But just for grins, lets pretend Sarah is “crazy like a fox” as Bill Crystal suggests and that she is pursuing a strategy to win the presidency. There is very little reason to believe this is the case, but it is fun to play “what if” so .......
The one thing that truly terrifies our ruling elites is the outsider populist. The oligarchy is only really threatened when an outsider populist gains enough support to become a viable candidate. This shall not be allowed to stand!
We've seen a couple of populists campaigns in resent decades, Ross Peroit and Pat Bucainin. And while both campaigns failed they certainly showed that if done correctly with perfect timing the opportunity is there. Peroit's timing was excellent, however he lost all creditability when he dropped out of the race and then for the lamest of reasons re entered the race a few weeks later. Pat's timing was not nearly as good and the Government Media had already ruined his reputation as punishment for opposing Bush 1 in 1988 with a populist GOP primary campaign.
Enter Sarah Palin.
If Peroits timing was excellent in 2000, Sarah timing would be perfect in 2012. Conservatives are leaving the GOP in droves, Democrats have turned into out right Marxist, leaving many Reagan Democrat with no place to go. Independents are by definition fed up with both parties. Add to the mix the cratering economy, sky rocking unemployment, deficients though the roof and extreme anger at using tax payer monies to bail out thieves on wall street. If a populist can't win in 2012 a populist can never win.
Sarah said she is going to work for “values” candidates regardless of party label, sounds like a populist to me. And what are her values?
“smaller government, free enterprise, strong national security, support for our troops, and energy independence”
I'd buy that for a dollar and I am certain she can expand on this list. She also has a history of taking on the entrenched corrupt bureaucrats in government. She cleaned up government in Alaska. So she can legibly claim to be an effect reformer. She is already in a much better position then either Peroit or Bucainen for a populist 2012 effort and it is only 2009.
So if this is the plan or even if it is only a contingency plan, how does she best proceed .
First and foremost DO NOT TELL ANYONE THIS IS THE PLAN! Should the oligarchy even think for one second Sarah was considering going populist they would throw EVERYTHING they have at her. Think her press is bad now? You ain't seen nothing yet. Think her legal battles are bad now? You ain't seen nothing yet. The oligarchy has weapons we don't even know about. So it is a must that Sarah stay “mainstream” as long as possible.
Second she must gain as many connected allies as possible, by connected I mean other like minded elected politicians. This she can do by campaigning for them in the very difficult upcoming 2010 election. She needs to build a base of support that also has a voice in the media. Once the attacks start she will need defenders those voices can not be ignored by the media. The more supporters the better, support from corporate and main street America will also be needed. Number three should insure this.
Third she will need an agenda that address promoting her values in a meaningful way. Clever sound bites and nice speeches will not get the job done. She will need at the very least an outline of a plan to achieve “smaller government, free enterprise, strong national security, support for our troops, and energy independence”. Of the three this should be the easiest. There are a number of very bright patriotic American she can consult with and formulate a plan with. Steve Forbes for example would be excellent on monetary policy and the economy. In fact he's make a great VP for Sarah. Lol, shameless Steve Forbes plug.
Obstacles:
There is really only one obstacle to implementing “the plan” and that is Sarah herself, does she have the temperament to take the unbelievable heat that would surely come. If she did not really crack under fire in Alaska and really did resigned to take the battle to the enemy then maybe. If not forget it Sarah, don't even think about it.
Does she have the intellect to formula a plan for the nation and the ability to defend and explain her ideas. Anything she puts forward is going to be riped to pieces and she's got to both defend it and explain it to the American people . She's got to have the ability to get her message out through a howling hurricane of media noise. That will require and very smart, very savvy lady that always stays on message and is not distracted by detractors.
Fortunately if she campaigns for others in 2010 she will get plenty of practice in getting her message out and plenty of experience in handling the hack media. She'll also be exposed the many diverse points of view on what is best for the nation, that is always a plus if she keeps her mind open.
Well there is my “what if” for Sarah Palin and 2012. It is of course sheer fantasy, but it was fun to write and I hope you found it fun to read. For what it is worth I hope this blind squirrel stumbled upon a nut and something similar is going through Sarah head. Personally I am convinced that Sarah is not looking at the GOP for 2010, way to much bad blood there. IMHO her only real option with any chance of success is the above.
Remember when Jack Kemp use to make all the circuits talking about his enterprise zones, year after year. Then he was picked for VP with Dole.
I can see her doing the circuits talking about energy and family, national security etc., just like many of the talking head pundits including Pat Buchanan talked about their issues.
She would be keeping her name out there much as McCain was on national TV and raising cash.
Then as we approach a certain distance from 2012, punch it into high gear and go for the Presidency.
King Obama did the same thing, nothing of real substance. It seems to detailed destroys chances. If she decided not to run, then I bet all her appearances will have lots of substance.
King Obama did the same thing, nothing of real substance....
Right On! Hope and Change brother!
She can help raise money for lots of conservatives, who will be there to help her, down the road.
She can also promote her book, which will make her far more money than any Governor of any state could hope for.
And, this gets the stupid, bogus, nasty “ethics” moon bats off her back, and this cuts her duty to remain in Alaska, while these dim wits bite at her ankles.
When she says “higher calling”, she could mean setting up a an org like the William J. Clinton Foundation.
Bull!
We are talking about a current POTUS who as ZERO management or executive experience, who’s major claim to any such experience, prior to the last election, was “running a national campaign” -—
If Sarah can get a few like minded conservatives elected, with her help, Sarah can write her own ticket.
I think you misunderstood my post. I did not expect her to say anything except what she wanted to say. My point was she was all over the board and I listened to the speech three times. She does not have to justify this decision to ANYONE..least of all me. I do think she made this decision for financial reasons and those are good reasons. I am sure her advisors told her, esp with her legal bills which are SO unfair, that this time will not last forever. If she wants to take advantage of the interest in her and go on the speaking circuit, take advantage of it now. I do not want her to ever feel she has to justify this decision to us. She spoke the the citizens of Alaska. That is all she has to do. She does not have to continue to explain to ANYONE.
Fair enough, I think I understand your points now.
If a populist can’t win in 2012 a populist can never win.
If by a ‘populist’ you mean a 3rd party effort then I think your last phrase of the above statement is correct.
It takes much more than just running as an outsider to the two major parties. Perot got almost 20% of the vote and not a single electoral college vote and that is what the election is all about. IMO, if you want to change the electoral process to a popular vote then good luck but until then forget about a 3rd party winning. It will take longer than 2012 to accomplish that change I believe.
Splitting off some conservatives, independents and others still leaves a group in the GOP and the Democratic Party basically intact. Thus an easy walk to the Presidency for the Democratic Party via the electoral college.
The problem with going for the GOP nomination is that it is “inside the box” thinking and Sarah is an outside the box thinker. lol, also there is a lot of bad blood between her and the party elites, I don’t think they would allow her the nomination or so badly damage her as to make her unelectable as a Republican. Also as a Republican she would be obligated to defend George W Bush’s failed economic policies. As a populist she could run against Obama and Bush. That is a win win. Believe me in 2012 the GOP candidate will once more be tied to W. That is the only message the Rats have that resonates with the people.
I would like to see Sarah Palin energize the secessionist movement in Alaska. If successful it would then lead the way for other states to seceede until we have 50 sovereign nation states. At that point each of these sovereign states could make regional alliances with surrounding states as each has it’s own state constitution. D.C. would be irrelevant and phased out along with all it’s ‘laws’. The U.S. Constitution also could be retired as it would have no further use and is not followed anymore anyway. The two major political parties would become mere footnotes of history. No more welfare. No more warfare. Freedom reigns. The world can get along without the U.S. gov’t with We the People paying for it’s assinine policies.
Sarah is now unelectable on a national stage. The “quitter” specter will hang around her neck like “swimmer” does to Ted Kennedy.
You’ll be able to spot the realistic, clear thinking conservatives because they see and admit this early so we can put it behind us get on with identifying the candidates who can win in ‘12.
BTW - This doesn’t rule out a tangential private career ala Newt or a run for a House or Senate seat (although I don’t know where at this point) but as a national candidate she is toast.
That so many conservatives can’t see this is one of the reasons we lose so often...in campaigns and ideology.
It’s quite sad but something I’ve learned to live with. At one point I thought the conservative cause in this country could be galvanized around solid principles, sober and realistic goals and turned into an effective winning strategy and movement. But I’ve come to realize too many voluntarlity ignore the ugly realities of politics and put their faith in Hail Mary passes, and frankly, are just too lazy for the time and effort needed to bring this country back to where they profess they want it to be.
WHY did she resign just two years into her first teerm as Governor???
IF she runs for President in ‘12, the first thing her opponents will say is “She quits under pressure,” and “Who would a President who might quit in the middle of a term.
Dream on.
I agree, but both my wife and I have different takes on it. My wife believes that she just had enough with politics and she can do better elsewhere. I believe by resigning the governorship, Palin freed herself up to go on the circuit to collect $10,000-$50,000+ speaking fees plus book royalties; all of which she needs. She can no longer be the target of the papers all the while gathering income and political clout. This will position her best for 2012. Time will tell.
Why not use the last 18 months to create and communicate the message that it is necessary to move on to the next phase in her political career? I think most people agree that she couldn't accomplish much more in her current position, but she could have used the last 18 months to tie up loose ends and get people used to seeing the Lt. Governor as her successor. I think she's probably gotten some good advice about a smooth transition, but has chosen not to listen to it.
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