Posted on 07/01/2009 1:45:02 AM PDT by TigerLikesRooster
(LEAD) N. Korean rocket capable of hitting half the U.S.: American scientists
By Sam Kim
SEOUL, July 1 (Yonhap) -- The long-range rocket North Korea launched in April could be converted into a ballistic missile that can theoretically hit half the United States with a substantial payload, two U.S. physicists have concluded from their joint study.
North Korea launched on April 5 what it claims was a rocket designed to carry a satellite into orbit. The U.S. and its allies say nothing entered orbit, calling the "Unha-2" rocket a disguised form of a ballistic missile capable of flying over 6,700 kilometers.
MIT professor Theodore Postol and David Wright, a physicist at the Union of Concerned Scientists (UCS), said the rocket could fly even further -- over 10,000 kilometers -- if changed into a missile.
"The Unha launcher represents a significant advance over North Korea's previous launchers and would have the capability to reach the continental United States with a payload of one ton or more if North Korea modified it for use as a ballistic missile," they said.
"It could have a range of 10,000-10,500 kilometers, allowing it to reach Alaska, Hawaii, and roughly half of the lower 48 states," they said in an article posted this week on the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists.
Noting that a "first-generation plutonium warhead could have a mass of 1,000 kilograms or more," Postol and Wright said the rocket could carry a 1-ton payload as far as 7,000-7,500 kilometers even if it had only two of its three stages.
"This would allow it to reach Alaska and parts of Hawaii, but not the lower 48 states," they said, writing on the assumption that the rocket was designed to carry a lightweight satellite.
North Korea, which has conducted two known atomic tests since 2006 -- including one on May 25 this year -- is not believed to have obtained the capability to miniaturize nuclear warheads to mount on ballistic missiles.
South Korean defense officials believe the North has enough weapons-grade plutonium to create at least six nuclear bombs, but they said each one would weigh far more than one ton.
Postol and Wright based their analysis partly on the video footage of the rocket launch North Korea released in April, adding computer modeling and past analysis also contributed to their study.
"By measuring the distance the launcher moves as a function of time in these videos, we determined the thrust-to-weight ratio of the Unha vehicle at launch," they said. "Using estimates of the mass of the Unha launcher, we then estimated the thrust at liftoff generated by the engines."
Drawing similarities between the North Korean rocket and the components previously developed by China, Russia and Iran, the physicists concluded that "it's extremely unlikely that these technologies were indigenously produced by North Korea."
"It's likely that these critical rocket components were acquired from other countries, most notably Russia, although likely without the involvement of the Russian government," they said.
"If these guesses are true, it could mean that North Korea's indigenous missile capability could be significantly constrained if Pyongyang is denied further access to such components," they said.
North Korea is restricted from trading mass destruction weapons under sanctions imposed by the U.N. Security Council following its latest underground nuclear test.
Wright and Postol said North Korea would rely on "combining existing components in clever ways" or realize it has "a dead-end program" if it is blocked from importing technical supplies.
They also called on the U.S. to work with Russia to ascertain the extent of cooperation between Moscow and Pyongyang that has likely helped North Korea build its stockpile of ballistic missiles.
"It should be a high priority for the United States to assess it and work with Russia to determine what technical assistance and components North Korea may have received," they said.
Wright and Postol also said evidence points to cooperation between Iran and North Korea, rebutting speculation that the last stage of the Unha-2 rocket was solid-fueled.
"The third stage appears to be very similar, if not identical, to the upper stage of the Iranian Safir-2 launch vehicle, which placed a small satellite in orbit in February," they said.
"Therefore, the Unha-2 appears to use a third stage with liquid rather than solid fuel," they wrote.
South Korean and U.S. officials say the final stage of the Unha-2 rocket separated but failed to ignite, plunging into the Pacific Ocean along with the payload.
Postol, whose expertise lies in ballistic missile technologies, teaches science, technology and national security policy at MIT. Wright co-directs the Global Security Program at the UCS.
Ping!
Dear North Korea: Please hit San Francisco, preferably around Oakland. Thank you.
Are you watching Iran, Hamas and the others. Starting price is 25000000 each.
We’ll just make a few jokes and wish it away.
what an idiot
Okay. Take it as given that they *will* hit the United States with something. Why? Because they said they are going to.
Given that we *will* lose something, most likely on the West Coast, what do you prefer to lose? Portland? Seattle? San Diego?
We can most easily afford to lose San Francisco.
This has been profoundly disturbing.
They saw the American People's decision in November. And they have also seen one very weak American leader at the helm now for five months. Dangerous. DANGEROUS TIMES INDEED.
That’s the beauty of having SF get hit. All the liberals will shout and scream and rush in to Be Seen Doing Something - and the radiation will kill them all off.
After the radiation dies off in a few decades, rational people can move in and take their place.
ROFLMAO!
You'll find this interesting:
http://www.angelfire.com/extreme4/kiddofspeed/chapter1.html
EXCERPT:
Roentgens
To begin our journey, we must learn a little something about radiation. It is really very simple, and the device we use for measuring radiation levels is called a geiger counter . If you flick it on in Kiev, it will measure about 12-16 microroentgen per hour. In a typical city of Russia and America, it will read 10-12 microroentgen per hour. In the center of many European cities are 20 microR per hour, the radioactivity of the stone.
1,000 microroentgens equal one milliroentgen and 1,000 milliroentgens equal 1 roentgen. So one roentgen is 100,000 times the average radiation of a typical city. A dose of 500 roentgens within 5 hours is fatal to humans. Interestingly, it takes about 2 1/2 times that dosage to kill a chicken and over 100 times that to kill a cockroach.
This sort of radiation level can not be found in Chernobyl now. In the first days after explosion, some places around the reactor were emitting 3,000-30,000 roentgens per hour. The firemen who were sent to put out the reactor fire were fried on the spot by gamma radiation. The remains of the reactor were entombed within an enormous steel and concrete sarcophagus, so it is now relatively safe to travel to the area - as long as one do not step off of the roadway and do not stick in a wrong places...
Not that they could aim it. Or, ensure a detonation at the proper moment. Or, get a bang rather than a fizzle.
Nonetheless, NoKor remains a whack-job nut-doodle terrorist genocidal dictatorship. We should do what we can to restrain / defeat them without turning SoKor into rubble.
Well, 9/11 came along. MY Dad's attitude changed. Talk about a wake-up call for all of the world.
While Bush was in office, I didn't worry too much about NK, I knew he'd stand up to KIM IL, and anyone else for that matter. He stuck to his guns in that respect and I am Deeply thankful that he took our worries away by keeping any attempts on us private and let us go back to living our lives.
But now with this spineless BOZO POTUS, those fears that loomed in the days and months after 9/11 seem to be rekindled. I don't have a bunker, and not enough ammo to fight this type of war on my own.
I can only hope and pray that there are enough people out there across our country who are starting to feel the same way.
It's time to parade our big guns, and just make sure KIM IL shuts up and takes a seat.
God help us.
Yeah, I’ve read her site a few times.
Thing is, Chernobyl still has active sources still decaying, unlike a fission or fusion weapon. For example, Hiroshima is now at the average “background count” as everywhere else on the planet and has been since a few months to a year after - but that assumes an airburst weapon. Groundburst? Welll......
This should warm the hearts of everyone voting the Democratic party.
http://www.familysecuritymatters.org/publications/id.3504/pub_detail.asp
Why do you say "idiot"?
Fantasizing about this sort of thing is perfectly normal and healthy, according to my neighbors who sell rainbow Che keffiyehs on the corner, and even if the idea sounds a bit weird, I respect their alternative viewpoints and refuse to be judgmental...most of all because something about this fantasy appeals to me, too.
Personally, I'd go for New York and Washington, but that's just me.
Well at least for The Anointed One, if America is hit, he can still find an ice cream parlor to go to, to show he’s in tune with the common man - and the MSM will swoon... :-(
Probably safe to laugh at first.
After a while, he's 250lb monster.
What's worse, is that he's not working alone. Iran, Venezuala, Syria, who knows who else? Within 3 years of North Korea perfecting a delivery system and nuclear warhead, another 5 of our worst enemies will have them. Within 10 years, that number will double.
We were too busy laughing at the problem when it was manageable, and now we're afraid to deal with it. We still laugh, but it's the nervous twittter of cowards.
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