China will try to defacto puppet regime in Pyongyang, and pressure other countries to accept the deal. This would make S. Koreans really unhappy. However, erstwhile pinkos, who railed against U.S. Imperialism on Korean Peninsula and so big on nationalism and Korea's victimhood under American 'boot,' would embrace it as a 'reasonable and practical solution.' They would never have been reasonable to Americans but things would be different with China. Selling out nationalism and victimhood for pro-Chicom stance. Anti-Americanism at all costs, which could erode their support among general population.
China, after installing a puppet regime, would go about buying off N. Korean population with more food and better economy. They will try to gain access to key strategic locations(ports along E. Sea (Sea of Japan).)
Security hawk will prevail in Japan now that China advances into Korean Peninsula. They will seriously rearm and could go nuclear, which would worry China. Concern for S. Korea and Japan going nuclear would be a great mitigating factor for China's design for N. Korea.
If N. Korea would fall under China, even through a puppet regime, S. Korea and Japan would less rely on U.S. Japan could try to take S. Korea under its wing, which would be resisted by S. Koreans. This will give more motivation for S. Korea to go nuclear than Japan.
Russia would try to join the fray, dangling its natural gas and oil supply from Siberia and Sakhalin as a carrot. They have wanted a trans-Siberian shipping route from Japan, S. Korea to Europe. They want to increase their influence on Korean Peninsula this way.
All this hinges on the assumption that N. Korea can be taken over with no serious troubles. However, succession struggles degenerate into open confrontation, military confrontations between factions, or even further different faction chose different outside backer. That is, one faction gets China's support, another get S. Korea and U.S.. Then things get messy. Even if somebody takes over government, but government cannot function and chaos continues on the ground(no effective government control,) drastically different situation could emerge. It will get messy for all parties involved.
ouch, but thanks.
I’ll have to go over that a few times.
I hope that NK will either be pressured (without payments) to back off, or
If they attack, will be squashed quickly due to a lack of enthusiasm by its troops. (troops unfed, don’t hold allegiance for long)
Odd, neither of us mentioned the UN.
again, ty
Any faction, supported by any country (outside of Cuba, Venezuela, Iran) will hear the same message: "unite your country, get rid of nukes, get richer." In other words, isolationist factions will have no foreign support, whereas progressive factions will get lots. Currently NK's biggest problem is that it has no factions, no debate, no doubt - the dictator makes all decisions no matter what.
In Iraq large segments of the military just went home when the war began. How do you assess the desire to fight in the NK military?
I believe that one of the SCO wargames simulated such a scenario.