Posted on 05/14/2009 10:24:10 PM PDT by neverdem
Fickle. The predicted coming solar maximum (red line) compared with the past three solar maxima (blue line). Inset: The sun's face, showing dark sunspots.
Credit: NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center
Fans of solar storms and power failures are in for some bad news. Today, a panel of the world's solar scientists announced that the next solar maximum--when the sun's irradiance, solar wind, and sunspots are most volatile--is not coming as soon and will not be as strong as predicted. That means fewer solar storms, which can cause power outages here on Earth.
For the past 3 centuries, the sun has followed a regular and reliable cycle. Every 11 years, it experiences a peak and a valley in its activity, called the maximum and minimum, respectively. During maxima, there are numerous sunspots (cool and dark areas on the sun's surface), the polarity of the sun's magnetic field weakens and then flips, and the solar wind fluctuates wildly. During minima, the sun is relatively placid, with no sunspots, a steady and strong magnetic field, and a more-or-less constant solar wind.
Although the solar cycle is regular, scientists have had a difficult time predicting exactly when the maxima and minima will occur. In 2006, for example, as the sun slowly settled down from its most recent maximum, scientists argued with great passion over the timing and strength of the next peak. Forty-five predictions were offered, based on a variety of techniques, from the theoretical to the purely statistical. These predictions generally fell into two camps, with one group forecasting an early and strong solar maximum whereas another group predicted a late and weak maximum.
In the end, the Solar Cycle 24 Prediction Panel, made up of scientists from both groups, published both forecasts. "It was amazing how split the community's predictions were," says panel chair Douglas Biesecker of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Space Weather Prediction Center in Boulder, Colorado.
To everyone's surprise, the sun so far hasn't followed either prediction. Both camps expected that by March 2008, the sun would hit its minimum and begin ramping up its activity toward one of the predicted maximums. But the sun remained quieter than it has been in almost a century. It has now been more than a year, and the sun is still docile, in one of the deepest solar minimums on record.
So the Solar Cycle Prediction Panel is revising its 2007 predictions. And this time, three-quarters of the researchers are on the same page. Today's announcement comes to three main conclusions. First, the panel now believes that the ongoing minimum reached its lowest point in December 2008. Second, the scientists predict that the next maximum will be weak with relatively few sunspots, the weakest since 1928. And third, the panelists say that the maximum will peak in May 2013, 9 months later than previously predicted.
Whether this newly revised forecast comes true, however, still remains unknown. As of today, the solar minimum continues, as deep and as quiet as scientists have ever seen. And there remains significant disagreement within the panel, with a large minority still unconvinced that the new prediction is right.
Hmmmm, they still don't get it. Compared to the age of the sun, how long is "on record"????
Kinda like a pimple on my butt being a trend!
The inset is a stark lie - the whole point is that there aren't any sunspots. Here's the latest SOHO photo, today, 5/15/09 (see any spots?):
and all the while being Govt. funded and earning tenure.......Nice work if u can get it
bump to read later
· join · view topics · view or post blog · bookmark · post new topic · | ||
There are times when I think it’s best to simply observe, and not be so heavily inclined to spout off about predictions.
There’s no shame in admitting that we aren’t able to understand everything. I’d rather have accurate observations than inaccurate predictions.
Agreed.
[T]here aren't any sunspotsFor the past two days, the folks at www.spaceweather.com have circled the sunspot group 1017 on their homepage (see left column), although there doesn't seem to be any increase in the TSI associated with them.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.