[DoughtyOne]

If they used a fraction of the money for W's Mars boondoggle, they could design a new launcher that would put the Orbiter at the top of the stack.

You may not have meant to diss Bush, but you did make it sound like you think a misdirection of funds was causing the continued problem with the orbiter launches.

It doesn’t make sense to me to completely redesign a launch system for a craft at the very end of it’s life expectancy.

First, I'm criticizing W for his Moon and Mars boondoggle, not anything to do with the Shuttle.

That may be what you intended to do, but you should keep the two separate if that's really your intention.

Second, what makes you think the Shuttles are at the end of their life expectancy? Each Orbiter only has a few dozen missions. The avionics and computers have all been upgraded, and the Shuttle still carries a lot of prestige.

These are the number of missions and date of first flight for each shuttle.  LINK

36 08/30/83 Discovery
30 10/03/85 Atlantis
22 05/07/92 Endeavor

NASA thinks it's time to take Discovery and Atlantis out of service.  That's good enough for me.  The Endeavor probably does have more missions in store.  The problem with that is that there will be no back-up.

You seem to think a launch redesign is indicated.  How long do you think that would take, and would it be advisable for just one remaining shuttle?  The cost and ticking clock on that effort leaves me thinking not.

My main concern right now is that Orion is going to turn out to be nothing more than a next generation orbiter.  If it does wind up being that, any real chance for easy frequent access and turn around to space will be thwarted for another 30 years.

[Moonman62]

NASA thinks it's time to take Discovery and Atlantis out of service.

Why? Are the airframes shot, or do they want to do it for budgetary reasons, or simply to make room for the next political project?

My main concern right now is that Orion is going to turn out to be nothing more than a next generation orbiter. If it does wind up being that, any real chance for easy frequent access and turn around to space will be thwarted for another 30 years.

Probably so. They keep scaling it back. My guess is it never gets off the ground.

I've said it before, the problem with the manned space program is that it's run by politicians.

[Lucius Cornelius Sulla]

If it does wind up being that, any real chance for easy frequent access and turn around to space will be thwarted for another 30 years.

Don't worry, we can always pay the Chinese to let us on their missions.