Why? Are the airframes shot, or do they want to do it for budgetary reasons, or simply to make room for the next political project?
My main concern right now is that Orion is going to turn out to be nothing more than a next generation orbiter. If it does wind up being that, any real chance for easy frequent access and turn around to space will be thwarted for another 30 years.
Probably so. They keep scaling it back. My guess is it never gets off the ground.
I've said it before, the problem with the manned space program is that it's run by politicians.
If you want my opinion, I don’t think a craft closing in on thirty years of age, is a solid bet. I know the B52 flies in the face of that, but it isn’t subjected to the temperatures and stresses the shuttle is.
I don’t believe the shuttle was designed to go past the thirty year mark. Are the airframes shot? Perhaps not. I’m certainly no expert on it. The current situation does not instill confidence in the system. That’s for sure.
NormsRevenge just offered up an opinion that more closely backs your view than mine.
I don’t disagree that the space program’s main problem is politicians.