What the Government Plans to do if the Pandemic Gets Worse

Interim Pre-pandemic Planning Guidance:Community Strategy for Pandemic Influenza Mitigation in the U ^ | February 2007 | CDC

[Pete]

This document was developed by the CDC in February of 2007 to outline what non-pharmaceutical measures the government would take at the various levels of a pandemic outbreak. Non-pharmaceutical measures include things like quarantine and school and business closures. The term used for these measures is "Social Distancing". Here is how the purpose of this paper is defined.

This document provides interim planning guidance for State, territorial, tribal, and local communities that focuses on several measures other than vaccination and drug treatment that might be useful during an influenza pandemic to reduce its harm. Communities, individuals and families, employers, schools, and other organizations will be asked to plan for the use of these interventions to help limit the spread of a pandemic, prevent disease and death, lessen the impact on the economy, and keep society functioning. This interim guidance introduces a Pandemic Severity Index to characterize the severity of a pandemic, provides planning recommendations for specific interventions that communities may use for a given level of pandemic severity, and suggests when these measures should be started and how long they should be used. The interim guidance will be updated when significant new information about the usefulness and feasibility of these approaches emerges.

Understanding the pandemic index with subsequent social distancing measures to be taken when a particular index value is met will allow you to know what is and is not coming as the swine flu pandemic plays out. We are currently in phase 4. Page 36 of this report has a chart that shows recommended social distancing measures that should be implemented in the various phases. Based on this chart, we should expect additional school closures, cancelation of public events, and modification of workplace schedules. If the government follows the plan, these will likely be implemented in coming days. Some have already been implemented. For example, school closures have occurred. Almost all have already been implemented in Mexico.

Again, we are at phase 4. Page 32 of this report estimates deaths in US between 900,000 and 1.8 million for a phase 4 event. Other than the 1918 flu pandemic, which was a phase 5, we have not had an event above a phase 2 in the 20th or 21st centuries.

[Pete]

CDC conducting a conference call RIGHT NOW to discuss Federal Public Health Emergency Law - Implications for State and Local Preparedness and Response.

Here is a link to the conference call page with number and pass code. Anyone can listen in, apparently. They are about to talk about quarantine and other social distancing laws. Right now, talking about emergency declarations.

http://emergency.cdc.gov/coca/callinfo.asp?s_cid=tw_epr_77

[Steve Van Doorn]

most likely the plane ride over. You are breathing everyone on that planes air.

[Jim Noble]

The CDC levels and plans do not account for a widespread event with low lethality, which appears to be what we are dealing with here.

The use of physical restrictions on travel was designed for (and would be appropriate for) smallpox.

It's not appropriate for sniffles.

[Pete]

The call I mentioned above is actually by FEMA legal councel. They are going through a powerpoint deck. Slide 53 is titled “Quarantine and Isolation Law: The Basics”. Again, anyone can call and listen in.

[goodnesswins]

UH....NO, it was NOT an upper respiratory illness....

[Pete]

Slide 71

Federal Powers: Quarantine and Isolation

The Secretary of HHS (through CDC) can: “detain, medically examine, or conditionally release” persons suspected of carrying certain communicable diseases

Authority applies only if communicable disease has been designated in a Presidential Executive Order SARS added 2003 Avian influenza added 2005

[Pete]

slide 69 is a real gem (bold added by me):

State and Local Jurisdictional Issues Regarding Protection of People

Remember: Police powers, including public health authority, are reserved to states under the U.S. Constitution’s 10th Amendment

But: federal and international jurisdictional issues may arise in a given case

[Steve Van Doorn]

ok then it was bad water/food I take it.

[Raebie]

Did I just hear Sheppard Smith say the incubation period was 6-7 days? I’ve been hearing 1-2 all along.

That would not be good.

[agrace]

LOL

[Steve Van Doorn]

page 31 table 2 shows we are on phase 2 or 3. ‘Consider’ would indicate some schools should be closed which that is taking place. If Mexico is using a similar plane they are on phase 4.
The US is on phase 2 or 3.

[Steve Van Doorn]

This document is a little confusing there are inter-pandemic periods which are pre-pandemic planning phases you can read on page 17. Then there are categories.

In the US we are on planning phase 4 but we are on pandemic category 2. Which in the US we are expected to lose between 90,000 and 450,000 people at this category.

[Pete]

I think you are right. It is somewhat confusing. I am still going through. It looks like things don’t really get crazy until the WHO goes to phase 6. My understanding is that they may go to phase 5 as early as tomorrow.

[Steve Van Doorn]

it is between 2 and 7 days that might depend on the strain of virus. I am not real clear on this but there are three strains of viruses in the Mexican Flu. H1h1 (swine flu), H2H2(bird flu) and common flu.

[snippy_about_it]

Thanks for all your information from the call. I wish I could have logged on but work comes first while I still have it!

[ChocChipCookie]

ping

[ChocChipCookie]

Here's something I read on a survival yahoo group:

An acquaintance of mine went to work this morning and got into a conversation with a coworker who told about his weekend. He had gone hunting on a piece of land in Flint, MI, where he is allowed to hunt duck. He came on a clearing and counted 600 brand new black Hummers. He asked the owner what was going on, and the owner said, "Oh, no big deal. The military uses them for training in martial law." Apparently, the owner and the coworker didn't think anything of it. Are we brainwashed, or what?

Let's see. This would be third hand information, and it's hard to imagine 600 Hummers parked out in the wilderness, but you never know. It seems that tension is building all over the world for SOMETHING to happen.