Posted on 04/28/2009 8:24:00 AM PDT by Pete
This document was developed by the CDC in February of 2007 to outline what non-pharmaceutical measures the government would take at the various levels of a pandemic outbreak. Non-pharmaceutical measures include things like quarantine and school and business closures. The term used for these measures is "Social Distancing". Here is how the purpose of this paper is defined.
This document provides interim planning guidance for State, territorial, tribal, and local communities that focuses on several measures other than vaccination and drug treatment that might be useful during an influenza pandemic to reduce its harm. Communities, individuals and families, employers, schools, and other organizations will be asked to plan for the use of these interventions to help limit the spread of a pandemic, prevent disease and death, lessen the impact on the economy, and keep society functioning. This interim guidance introduces a Pandemic Severity Index to characterize the severity of a pandemic, provides planning recommendations for specific interventions that communities may use for a given level of pandemic severity, and suggests when these measures should be started and how long they should be used. The interim guidance will be updated when significant new information about the usefulness and feasibility of these approaches emerges.
Understanding the pandemic index with subsequent social distancing measures to be taken when a particular index value is met will allow you to know what is and is not coming as the swine flu pandemic plays out. We are currently in phase 4. Page 36 of this report has a chart that shows recommended social distancing measures that should be implemented in the various phases. Based on this chart, we should expect additional school closures, cancelation of public events, and modification of workplace schedules. If the government follows the plan, these will likely be implemented in coming days. Some have already been implemented. For example, school closures have occurred. Almost all have already been implemented in Mexico.
Again, we are at phase 4. Page 32 of this report estimates deaths in US between 900,000 and 1.8 million for a phase 4 event. Other than the 1918 flu pandemic, which was a phase 5, we have not had an event above a phase 2 in the 20th or 21st centuries.
Just saw the article. Look for my post page 2
It’s always a good idea to keep the pantry stocked with non-perishables and bottled water, the medicine cabinet stocked with unexpired OTC and prescriptions, and cleansers including alcohol (the rubbing kind, oh ok, both kinds!) and clorox. The need could come from any event including a pandemic, loss of income, natural disaster, power outages, etc. Just be prepared.
When is day 10? I've lost track of when this thing really started.
Do what?
That is a good question. I am looking over CDC and WHO websites to see if I can find out. I know that in the US, the news first started developing on Friday which means it probably started in the US earlier in the week. However, in Mexico, it was at least 10 days ago. Probably 10-15. Today, Mexico closed all public eateries in Mexico City. The next week will tell us a lot. According to the CDC graphs, it peaks on day 20. Of course, that assumes it is a real pandemic, which has not been established, at is based on modeling and past pandemics, which don't necessarily apply to future events.
Watch the WHO closely. If they go to phase 5, we are in big trouble.
Agreed and done. One upside to a Pandemic (if one can say such a thing) is that essential services like water and power are not necessarily affected, like in a natural disaster.
That's some interesting and sobering information right there.
That's some interesting and sobering information right there.
Sounds like my senior prom.
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Not immediately, no, but within a relatively short period of time workers will become ill or afraid to leave their homes lest they contract the disease, or unable to leave home because they are needed to nurse their families. Even without widespread shortages of healthy people to staff various departments, all kinds of problems can result, just in upkeep of services.
You mean you stayed in bed the whole time???
Thanks for the information.
Read the link in #16.
“Again, we are at phase 4. Page 32 of this report estimates deaths in US between 900,000 and 1.8 million for a phase 4 event. Other than the 1918 flu pandemic, which was a phase 5, we have not had an event above a phase 2 in the 20th or 21st centuries.”
I’m pretty sure the above greatly overstates the risk level we are at. The report you cite has only FIVE risk levels (see page 32). The WHO, on the other hand, who just put us at a level 4, has SIX risk levels. In other words, regarding the two scales, you are comparing apples and oranges—they are different scales. Level 4 on the WHO scale is not comparable to level 4 in the attached pdf.
I don’t read WHO’s description of Risk Level 4 as anything close to the risk level 4 described in your document.
HA...no....we took a trip to Guadaljara....and I can STILL remember the bathroom (and smell) of THAT small hotel room...and all the 7up I drank while we toured the area...
Naa the Obammunists will use the swine flu as a reason to create ore government programs no matter how unrelated to the swine flu..
The government has very detailed plans already written and tested for this. They thought it was going to be bird flu, but this will work the same. Think Martial law and roadblocks manned by troops in MOPP4. the laws are already on the books and I am sure they are being dusted off right now. We are just waiting for the declaration of a national emergency by Obama, that will set this in motion. To give Obama some credit, he may not have a choice, this could be the big one and he has to take some big steps to save the nation. That being said, I think he will screw it up.
maybe, but I think the stores will be closed. who wants to stand around getting exposed to a deadly flu all day for minimum wage.
I agree with all of that.
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