Posted on 04/28/2009 8:24:00 AM PDT by Pete
This document was developed by the CDC in February of 2007 to outline what non-pharmaceutical measures the government would take at the various levels of a pandemic outbreak. Non-pharmaceutical measures include things like quarantine and school and business closures. The term used for these measures is "Social Distancing". Here is how the purpose of this paper is defined.
This document provides interim planning guidance for State, territorial, tribal, and local communities that focuses on several measures other than vaccination and drug treatment that might be useful during an influenza pandemic to reduce its harm. Communities, individuals and families, employers, schools, and other organizations will be asked to plan for the use of these interventions to help limit the spread of a pandemic, prevent disease and death, lessen the impact on the economy, and keep society functioning. This interim guidance introduces a Pandemic Severity Index to characterize the severity of a pandemic, provides planning recommendations for specific interventions that communities may use for a given level of pandemic severity, and suggests when these measures should be started and how long they should be used. The interim guidance will be updated when significant new information about the usefulness and feasibility of these approaches emerges.
Understanding the pandemic index with subsequent social distancing measures to be taken when a particular index value is met will allow you to know what is and is not coming as the swine flu pandemic plays out. We are currently in phase 4. Page 36 of this report has a chart that shows recommended social distancing measures that should be implemented in the various phases. Based on this chart, we should expect additional school closures, cancelation of public events, and modification of workplace schedules. If the government follows the plan, these will likely be implemented in coming days. Some have already been implemented. For example, school closures have occurred. Almost all have already been implemented in Mexico.
Again, we are at phase 4. Page 32 of this report estimates deaths in US between 900,000 and 1.8 million for a phase 4 event. Other than the 1918 flu pandemic, which was a phase 5, we have not had an event above a phase 2 in the 20th or 21st centuries.
When in danger
When in doubt
Run in circles
Scream and shout
I am just having trouble at this point seeing this as a crisis.
Social Distancing Who thinks up these names
51 out of 300 million
I know what you mean. However, we have to remember that a pandemic flue outbreak is an exponential event, not an arithmetic one. That means that tomorrow could be 10x and not just 2x worse than today. In other words, you don't see it coming.
It’s not now, although with the apparent death rate in Mexico from this particular flu, it could have been. People need to not panic, but take regular precautions.
Sounds more like a Rahm Emmanuel effort to get the Pelosi off the hook regarding torture than a genuine health threat.
That’s exactly right. Overnight in Mexico the number of deaths went up by 50%. I’m not sure why it’s deadly in Mexico and doesn’t appear to be anywhere else. Could it be another bug in conjunction?
YES....you gotta wonder what the Razzle Dazzler is doing while everyone is focused on THIS ....
You have never been to Mexico
We will know in the next week or so if it moves to a phase 5, which is defined as "Spread throughout United States". Phase 4 is "First Human Case in North America".
Given the Social Distancing plans the government has, my concern is what Obama and Rahm "never waste a crisis" Emmanuel will do if we do go to a 5.
All of these measures would be justified IF this event had high lethality or morbidity.
If 20% of the cases in Mexico went blind (for example), we would be DEMANDING that all these things be done.
The lethality of A/California/04/2009 is far from clear, however.
Napalitano will take that under consideration. She won’t act on it, but rest assured she’ll look into it.
Actually, I have been. It still does not make sense. Most deaths have been young/middle aged healthy people. And frankly, And I suspect anyone who survives in Mexico probably has a pretty healthy immune system!
'H.R. 1585, 11 May 2007, Section 1615, page 672 (of 794) (Under TITLE XVI, NATIONAL GUARD ENHANCEMENT) ..... DETERMINATION OF DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE CIVIL SUPPORT REQUIREMENTS (a) DETERMINATION OF REQUIREMENTS---- The Secretary of Defense shall determine the military-unique capabilities needed to be provided by the Department of Defense to support civil authorities in an incident of national significance or a catastrophic incident. (b) PLAN FOR FUNDING CAPABILITIES --- (1) PLAN----The Secretary of Defense shall develop and implement a plan, in coordination with the Secretaries of the military departments and the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, for providing the funds and resources necessary to develop and maintain the following: (A) The military-unique capabilities determined under subsection (a). (B) Any additional capabilities determined by the Secretary to be necessary to support the use of the active components and the reserve components of the armed forces for homeland defense missions, domestic emergency responses, and providing military support to civil authorities. (2) TERM OF PLAN---- The plan required under paragraph (1) shall cover at least five years.'
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