Posted on 04/23/2009 6:11:25 PM PDT by NCjim
Every expert here claimed that Obama has no chance to win Pennsylvania or the overall election. I argued that the polls showed Obama winning quite handily, which means it would probably happen. Poll derangement was in such full blown style here that common sense was suspended. Then the shock: Obama blew McCain away in Pennsylvania, as polls had claimed all along. Sometimes things are the way they are.
Also, the recent Pew poll had the following partisan breakdown:
Republicans: 26.53%
Democrats: 33.49%
Independents: 39.97%
http://people-press.org/report/?pageid=1504
That breakdown is hardly upside-down quackery, yet the result is clearly not to our liking.
Gallup’s and Cook/RT’s polls come with very similar party breakdowns. We have to face the fact that our party is not very popular right now. Heck, even the tea parties were sure to blame the Republicans in charge almost as much as Democrats.
When the leaders of the Republican party speaking for us on a daily basis are highly unpopular figures Dick Cheney, Karl Rove and Newt Gingrich we should not be surprised that the other side is approved of MORE virtually by default. We need some fresh, energetic blood to show up on the weekend shows (Cantor, Palin, Jindal) and for Cheney and Rove, who are just way too unpopular, to fade away a bit.
There are always distortions in the polls. The people doing the polling want to make the Democrat position seem to be the more popular one.
“Obama enjoys real support from an electorate that wants to give him a chance.”
LOL!
Michael Barone on the Rasmussen polling
“Given that this generic ballot question over the years has tended to understate Republicans’ performances in actual elections, one gathers that if the 2010 election for House seats were held today, Republicans would win or come close to winning a majority of seats—which is to say, they would gain about 40 seats. By way of comparison, they gained 52 seats when they won their majority in 1994. This result may just be a momentary blip, which will pass away as quickly as it appeared, and we are a long, long, long way from the November 2010 elections. But if I were a Democratic member of Congress in even a marginally marginal district, I would be just a little bit worried.”
Cue Baghdad Bob...
Tell me how oversampling Dems by 18 points is goin g to generate an accurate approval rating.
I’m glad you did that. At first glance, I was surprised at the total given those breakdowns. Your running the “not claimed” numbers explains the reason why.
This is an EVEN BIGGER item to broadcast about the “poll”
So 39% or so?
No one ever polls me, or I would give them an ear full. This Chicago thug the crazy Democrats and stupid Republicans elected is going to bankrupt this country. Then who will pay for the free health care these idiots think they will get?
If our OK GOP Convention was an indication, there is backbone developing rapidly but then we are a completely red state.
Thanks for your analysis — it is about what I thought. First ZERO cheated on Ms. Clinton with voter fraud and then it continued. ACORN has been doing this for years and County Election Board Secretaries seem to be some of the most incompetent people around. They don’t seem to be able to check out new voter registrations. Day they instituted motor voter, fraud became rampant.
Well, if the figures quoted are right, to get an overall average approval rating of 48%, the independents and “wont say” brigade must be averaging 55% approval, which is less than the card-carrying democrats but significantly more than the Republicans.
I just ran the figures and got 55%. Where are you putting the independents?
The problem is not denial of poll results. The problem is that poll results, in and of themselves, have an impact politically. If one side is demonstrably ahead of the other, or can be shown to be, that in and of itself will affect voting, in the sense that some will think “well, my guys are so far behind, they can’t win, so why should I bother”.
I think you are right, Obama DOES enjoy real support from an electorate that wants to give him a chance, but he doesn’t enjoy as much support as this poll indicates. That is because the cross section of electors they have chosen does not represent the electorate as a whole - there is a much higher proportion of registered democrats and independents in their poll, so naturally they are going to get a better result for a democrat president. Of course, that fact is hidden in the data...people only pay attention to the headline. The weak-willed get the impression that backing the president is popular, and they dont want to be going against the “cool” vibe do they? So the poll becomes self fulfilling. Because the poll says people approve, more people DO approve.
“These people have no shame and unfortunately the vast majority will not even question it.”
True that.
Without a conscience there is no morality.
Poll the NEA and welfare recipients.
I’d bet BIG bucks the 18% “unclaimed” all vote D.
I used the 17% approval for Independents, using the 26% of total sample that they made up, as given in the article.
ping
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