Posted on 03/24/2009 7:03:23 AM PDT by anniegetyourgun
WASHINGTON -- In the mid-1980s, while covering most of the developing world, I began to realize something was happening that seemed, at least at the time, counter to the common wisdom. My American generation of post-World War II optimists had simply assumed that nations as we knew them would naturally hold together. They would brook their problems, but their coherence as organized, civilized societies and states would remain; progress was inevitable for all human beings.
But suddenly I saw, to the contrary, that many countries we had expected would continue to "work" were instead beginning to disintegrate. Our blithe, too-casual assumptions about man's perfectible modern nature turned out to be, in truth, anti-historical.
From beautiful and supposedly stable countries like Lebanon in the late '70s, to Iran and its violent Islamic revolution in the '80s, to the Sikh civil war in northern India and then the disintegration of Yugoslavia in the '90s, countries began falling apart -- and violently. The idea of the "failed state" came into dark vogue.
And now, I realize, we may have unquietly, and with woefully insufficient attention, entered another new phase. Today, the failed states -- violent and unruly congeries of peoples with no common principles, like today's Somalia and the entire Congo area of Central Africa -- are suddenly providing their own armies! Their chaos is becoming pervertedly militarized and a horrendous threat to those parts of the civilized world that are left.
First, take the appearance of pirates off the Somali coast -- the Horn of Africa. It might at first seem as though these pirate ship attacks on oil tankers, and even pleasure ships, are a petty nuisance to the world. But the International Maritime Bureau reports that there were 111 attacks and 42 successful hijackings off Somalia during 2008. This is not only amazing in terms of the organization of these attacks, but also it means that insurance and safety concerns are driving shipping companies to spend millions of extra dollars on insurance and security -- and this is only the beginning. Interestingly enough, these increasingly prevalent raids are more than random attacks by unrelated miscreants; in fact, they represent a new phenomenon that is organized and funded. The Financial Times reports, for instance, that the pirates employ "accountants" to divide up ransoms, that they follow a code of conduct, and that they pay senior members of the clans and local political groups on land. There are also larger "mother ships" to which the smaller pirate ships can retreat for sustenance.
Then there are threats closer to home, in particular the drug cartel "armies," highly organized and violent to the point of pathological madness, that are causing so much pain and chaos in Mexico, right on the American border.
The U.S. Defense Department recently told The Washington Times that the situation is rapidly approaching civil war, that Mexico's two most deadly drug cartels together have fielded more than 100,000 foot soldiers, and that this is "an army that rivals Mexico's armed forces and threatens to turn the country into a narco-state." Mexico has 130,000 soldiers under arms.
If this is true -- and every indication is that it is -- then the big cartels (Sinaloa cartel, Los Zetas, Tijuana cartel, Juarez cartel and Beltran Leyva organization) are indeed becoming counter-states or, as some are calling them, "shadow governments," with their own militaries at their disposal, fighting the nation-states.
A similar evolution has happened historically in many countries, after colonialism, for instance, where the vicious liberation movements became the governments; and it is beginning to happen in Africa already, as in Guinea-Bissau on the West Coast of Africa, where the recent assassination of the president is believed to have been carried through with the involvement of Latin American Colombian drug cartels. (The U.N. estimates that more than $1 billion in cocaine goes through the tiny "state" of 1.5 million impoverished people.)
Indeed, there already are "new armies" inside the United States with the development of gangs, in particular Mexican-American street gangs with origins in the old barrios of Los Angeles and other California cities.
Recently, for instance, the attempted assassination of a South Carolina deputy sheriff, Ted Xanthakis, was initiated by the Surenos gang or SUR-13, whose members were supposed to "kill a cop" for admission to the gang. There are innumerable other examples.
Why does the world not DO something about this? Is there anything the world CAN do about this, or are the supposedly "stable" states themselves in various processes of economic, political and social disintegration that prevent them from acting?
William S. Lind, a brilliant and tough-minded military analyst who wrote the original Marine Corps book on irregular warfare, wrote in his recent column: "Piracy is a barometer of two related qualities in the world of states: the state's belief in itself and the state system, and international order. ... The failure of states to follow ancient law and precedent in dealing with Somali pirates says nothing about the pirates. But it speaks volumes concerning the weakness of the state. ... When not even states' elites believe in the state anymore, why should anyone else?"
The storm that he sees coming could well be a social, political, economic, military and psychological tsunami. Our military, with its dependence upon big weaponry and its incapacity to understand the psychology of its enemies, is particularly incapable of dealing with such a phenomenon.
Our civilization is being threatened every day by new, innovative and uniquely destructive threats. If we can't sink some poor pirate ships off non-state Somalia, one wonders what we can do.
..not to mention those in D.C. who are looting as we speak...
At the present time, we can "hope and change".
Re-teach the values that made us great.
Destroy the Left, completely and for all time.
Geyer is a welcome read. She has seen it all, from the slaughter in Southern Sudan to the trail of boatpeople everywhere. I have never quite thought of today’s troubles in her light, but it makes a lot of sense. Western Civilization(s), which includes the United States, are breaking down. And fast.
Some nation-states rightfully deserve to dissolve. The ensuing chaos is a sign of the freedom of the individual.
Yes to your comment. It’s precisely what needs to be, however it can only happen IF we can regain the helm, replace the Fed where it belongs, and have the States self reliant as by design.
The teaching of the values that made us great is what will destroy the Left, thus revive at least our civilization.
My thoughts exaclty. Clear out the perverts, felons, thieves, and “pirates” from Washington, DC and there’d be maybe a dozen people left in Congress and a couple of janitors.
Some ‘old school’ solutions to modern day outlaws:
1) Public hanging of know Mexican drug lords/gang leaders in full view of Mexican border sending a message to the Narc state.
2) Blockade Somalia. Sink every ship coming or going including UN and CNN.
3) Do not capture gang members. Kill them on the spot. Make bodies disappear.
The credit goes to Jimmy Carter.
Small democracies needed us a s friends not an enemy, and Carter was Irans enemy, determined to bring chaos to the country. Unfortunately for all of us today, he succeded.
True
The ensuing chaos is a sign of the freedom of the individual.
Uh, not so true.
I doubt it. The USMC has been studying and drafting doctrine on low intensity conflicts and brushfire wars since at least the 1920's.
Oh yes it is. The mindless brutality of these failed African nation-states is a reminder of the brutality of the people themselves.
When the U.S. collapses, I’m not just going to pick up a machette and start killing people who are near me - they do this in Somalia whether the state exists or not.
My point? Never accrue righteousness to the state, only to individuals.
I'm sorry, it's a non sequitur. Chaos is not a righteous expression of free individuals, it is a state of affairs.
I fully agree with your later points, so perhaps I misunderstand your connecting chaos with freedom in the context of failed African states.
Our civilization is being threatened every day by new, innovative and uniquely destructive threats. If we can't sink some poor pirate ships off non-state Somalia, one wonders what we can do.
Georgie Anne Geyer is a nice liberal lady. But a liberal none the less. Her observations are spot on but her conclusions summarized in the last two paragraphs betray clueless liberalism.
Our military is not the problem, and those "destructive threats" she alludes to are internal, not external.
Organized, civilized societies,something the government fears they try to keep a society split so they can play my party will fix every thing for you.
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