Posted on 03/22/2009 2:47:14 PM PDT by Clintonfatigued
Does John E. Sununu's rapid-fire post-Capitol Hill appointments to three corporate boards and a congressional oversight panel mean he won't run for the open U.S. Senate seat next year?.
Not necessarily, says Andrew Smith, an associate political science professor at the University of New Hampshire.
"It's not unusual for former politicians to take positions on boards because it allows them to keep their business contacts and make some money, but doesn't put them in a position of having a regular full-time job," Smith said.
"It kind of keeps them tied in to political and business circles and allows them to use their expertise and the connections they made over their years in politics."
Smith said that Sununu, at 44, "is in an unusual position because he is so young. But I wouldn't say that this in any way precludes a re-run for the Senate."
Since Judd Gregg announced last month that he won't seek re-election in 2010, several Republicans have emerged as potential candidates, including former Gov. Steve Merrill, former U.S. Rep. Charlie Bass, Manchester Mayor Frank Guinta and Concord attorney Tom Rath. But Rath may have reflected the general GOP consensus when he said last month he believes Sununu should have first dibs on the seat.
(Excerpt) Read more at unionleader.com ...
I don’t know what to think about this. John Sununu was a bright, capable Senator, but I don’t know if he would be the strongest candidate.
Sununu won in 2002 because the GOP brand was strong back then. Sununu lost in 2008 just because the GOP brand was poor. He lost re-election 52-44. In the potential matchup polls, Sununu is polling at 44-46. I think that is his glass ceiling. Let Sununu run for Hodges’s House seat. Then when the GOP brand improves, Sununu could go for round 3 against Jean Shaheen.
That would be one for the books - lose re-election to one senate seat and then win election to the other senate seat two years later. Don’t see that happening, though.
Sununu hails from Che-Porter’s seat. He should take her out.
No, that’s not one for the books. Slade Gorton did that in WA state back in 1988 after he lost reelection in 1986.
Slade Gordon of WA lost re-election for Senate in 1986. In 1988, Slade won the other Senate seat even while Bush I lost WA. These weird things do happen.
“That would be one for the books - lose re-election to one senate seat and then win election to the other senate seat two years later.”
It’s happened before. Democratic Senator Joseph O’Mahoney was narrowly defeated for reelection in 1952, than won a vacant seat in 1954.
Also Chapman Revercomb in west Virginia lost reelection after one term in 1948. he then won again in 1956 but was bumped by Bob Byrd in 1958. Also John Sherman Cooper in Kentucky was elected three times to the Senate and lost his bid for relection after each of the first two elections. But it is very rare to see a senator come back from political death.
Sununu should be the nominee. He is stronger than you think. Shaheen was a popular Governor in NH with broad appeal among Independents. It was an upset that he beat her in 2002.
With Shaheen no longer as his opponent, and Hodes, who is not univerally liked instead, Sununu could build a huge advantage in the 1st District, where Shaheen hailed, to overcome Hodes’ support in the 2nd to win the seat.
Futhermore, 2010 is not going to be another 2006 or 2008. With Dems in power, voters, especially in NH will want to divide the goverment, though perhaps not on the scale of 1994. In fact, in 2008, the Republicans made gains in the NH State House. Futhermore, with the Iraq War over, and deficit spending by the Democrats, the NH voters will likely be more friendly to Republicans, who they were upset with over the Iraq War and Bush’s Spending Problem.
Sununu can beat Hodes, and though he’s down 46-44 right now, 45% is what he got in 2008. He can only go up from here.
By the way, there are some well-liked State Senators in the 1st and 2nd District that could take both seats from the Democrats. Lets use the Republicans huge bench in the State to win those seats, and use the statewide guys like Sununu to go for the big ticket offices. Im pretty sure Sununu woulnd’t want to return to the House (1 in 435) after being in the Senate (1 in 100). Look for a serious run at both the house seats in 2010. Bradley is running to hold a NH State Senate seat after the newly elected Republican resigned after a DUI. With Bradley out of the picture, Frank Guinta, Mayor of Manchester (1/6 of the 1st District), is looking to run at Che-Porter. In the more liberal 2nd District, there are a couple state Senators looking to take a run at it, who could give the Dems (likely Katrina Swett, whose husband lost the seat back in 1994) a run for their money.
Who else do we have? Sununu is reasonably conservative and pro-life; I like him. I would prefer to see new blood but I want to see a winner.
Bob Smith moved back to NH from FL. He is seriously thinking of running for Senate in 2010 and exposing what a RINO Sununu is. Of course Bob Smith will have little if any traction in the GOP primary. My concern is if Bob Smith run as a 3rd party candidate. Smith could drain 2-3 points from the GOP.
I think Merrill or the Mayor of Manchester would be stronger. And DJ once mentioned the state AG.
Ex-Governor Merrill or Mayor Frank Guinta.
IF Sununu is actually the stongest I’d back him but I think new blood (or old blood in Merrill) would stand a better chance that the guy that just lost to the vapid Shaheen.
I’d like to see some polling.
He would be the strongest candidate. That might be damning with faint praise, but that’s the situation.
I can’t agree with you on Sununu. By all accounts, he should’ve won again last year, especially since NH had the opportunity to see what total moonbat control of the state government under the rodents yielded, and yet they replaced him anyway. Shaheen was nowhere near as popular as made out to be, and if she had been, she’d have won back in ‘02. She was already a has-been and managed to knock off Sununu 6 years out of office. Hodes is a known factor and is already leading Sununu and that’s a bad sign. Let him run against the dreadful moonbat Che Porter instead, his old House seat. If he beats her and wins again in ‘12, then he can seek a rematch with Shaheen for the 3rd time in ‘14.
What about the state AG? Is she up for re-election, or just not interested?
The State AG isn’t elected by the people. They serve at the behest of the Governor. Kelly Ayotte was actually a Craig Benson appointee, but John Lynch opted to retain her. I imagine if she made any attempts for Congress or against Lynch, she’d promptly lose her job.
Well, two years isn’t very long for people to get a negative judgment of the Moonbats they elect. Hell they don’t even work 1/3 of the year. In fact, few elected officials get voted out after a single term. Hence, in 1996, the Democrats thought they would ride back into Majorities in the House and Senate, but they didn’t, Republicans would hold on for another 10 years.
Second, Sununu was being judged on issues at the National Level, and though a total meltdown at the State House would cause the voters to lose confidence in their Federal Democratic Party Companions, that had yet to happen by Nov. 2008. (Though we are starting to see signs of it in NH and elsewhere) Sununu was seen as a member of the ineffectual Republican Congress, and Independents, who are the largest voting bloc in the state had no use for its members.
Third, your are incorrect about Shaheen’s popularity. Shaheen had comparable favorability ratings to Sununu in 2002 and in 2008. However, NH in 2002 had a 6% Registered Republican Voter Advantage in one of the best Republican Cycles since 1994. She even led Sununu a week out from the election. He only pulled ahead in polling in the last week out, probably due to late deciders going with the national trend. It was probably the reason Sununu was able to hold the seat against Shaheen. Bob Smith was dumped in favor of the more popular John Sununu because Shaheen was seen as a favorite to beat the erratic former Senator. Sununu actually stood a chance, and squeaked out a narrow victory. By 2008, the national mood had changed, and the Republican advantage was completely erased with Republicans having just 5,000 more registered voters overall (less than 1 percent). Though they maintained similar favorability ratings, and Sununu OUT-RAN McCain (NH was supposed to be McCain’s “Second” Home State...bull of course), it wasn’t enough to hold on. You put Sununu up against Hodes, who is not well-known, and is frankly, not a very exciting guy nor candidate, Sununu will win. Plus 2010 will be a much improved year for Republicans, with Democrats now in power over everything and screwing everything up, the national and state brands of the GOP can’t hold Sununu down any longer against a lesser known and weaker candidate.
That being said, I see one other strong GOP candidate, which is Steve Merrill. He’s a little old, 62, but a strong fiscal conservative and a Former Governor, however I’m not sure of his positions on Social Issues. Though often touted, Guinta and Ayotte probably need to win in another lower level of office first before launching out for the Senate. The AG in NH is an apppointed position (no statewide electability), and Mayors are not usually good Senate Candidates in more ways than one (Bob Corker, Rudy Giuliani....)
NH has been different in that regard, though. On occasion, they've voted in Democrats, but have often swept them out after a fairly brief time. 2008 was a historic precedent because not since the 1977-79 had they grabbed a 3-1 federal majority and not since 1841-1845 (not a typo) did the Dems retain all the House seats for two elections in a row. Two years was enough for the voters to toss Republicans Craig Benson from the Governorship and Chuck Douglas from Congress (though Douglas had some personal problems, unlike Benson, who never had enough time to show what he could do and had the dreadful misfortune of having the Man on the Mountain disintegrate on his watch, not as if that was his fault, but bad political and psychological karma). Also, too, I don't believe since the 1800s the Dems have retained majorities in the legislature in both bodies for two elections in a row, either.
"Third, your are incorrect about Shaheen’s popularity. Shaheen had comparable favorability ratings to Sununu in 2002 and in 2008. However, NH in 2002 had a 6% Registered Republican Voter Advantage in one of the best Republican Cycles since 1994. She even led Sununu a week out from the election. He only pulled ahead in polling in the last week out, probably due to late deciders going with the national trend. It was probably the reason Sununu was able to hold the seat against Shaheen."
My point about Shaheen is that with 6 years out in the political wilderness without portfolio, running a rematch would be difficult, but she upended Sununu who was perpetually mired in stagnant ratings. He should've beaten her as the incumbent, but he didn't. It's why I don't favor him to go for the open seat.
"You put Sununu up against Hodes, who is not well-known, and is frankly, not a very exciting guy nor candidate, Sununu will win."
See, I just don't agree here. Hodes is known now (unlike in past cycles), and he jumped from a 7% victory in '06 to a 15% one in '08. That should've been a closer race and wasn't. Even Che Porter increased her margin of victory in a rematch with Jeb Bradley. If Hodes is already leading Sununu now, I don't really expect that to change unless there ends up a dramatic collapse for the "D" party label, but I don't think we should take the risk. I have no problem letting Sununu go after Porter, but the open seat is way too risky now.
"That being said, I see one other strong GOP candidate, which is Steve Merrill. He’s a little old, 62, but a strong fiscal conservative and a Former Governor, however I’m not sure of his positions on Social Issues."
I'd like to know myself on the latter, but I think I'd rather give him a shot at it. He at least left office with good approvals and did well at the ballot box.
"Though often touted, Guinta and Ayotte probably need to win in another lower level of office first before launching out for the Senate."
Manchester Mayor (as the largest city) is a high-profile office in the state. Guinta deposed a supposedly-popular Dem incumbent. He could easily run for Congress, Senate or Governor (and he can do so without risking his office, since the elections for Mayor are in odd numbered years). Ayotte is a bit trickier since she hasn't held a job where we know how she'd do in actual vote-getting, although that didn't stop Warren Rudman, who went from AG to the U.S. Senate (albeit with a 4-year interval).
"The AG in NH is an apppointed position (no statewide electability), and Mayors are not usually good Senate Candidates in more ways than one (Bob Corker, Rudy Giuliani....)"
I think you mean good Senators as opposed to candidates. Some Mayors have made it quite far (Pete Wilson went from San Diego Mayor to the Senate; Dianne Feinstein from ex-SF Mayor to the Senate; Dirk Kempthorne from Boise Mayor to the Senate; Richard Lugar from Indianapolis Mayor...; Hubert Humphrey from Minneapolis Mayor; Norm Coleman from St. Paul Mayor; Ed Zorinsky from Omaha Mayor; Pete Domenici from Albuquerque Mayor; Joe Clark from Philadelphia Mayor; Linc Chafee from Warwick Mayor; Corker from Chattanooga; Jake Garn from Salt Lake City). Of course, Corker wasn't the preferred candidate of the Conservative base as we regarded him as a RINO (I voted for his opponent, ex-Congressman Ed Bryant), although now he's moved slightly to the right of Lamar! Alexander. It's not fair to lump in Giuliani, since his health scare forced him to withdraw. We don't know if he would've edged out Hillary (although I think he might've lost by a very narrow margin).
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