Well, two years isn’t very long for people to get a negative judgment of the Moonbats they elect. Hell they don’t even work 1/3 of the year. In fact, few elected officials get voted out after a single term. Hence, in 1996, the Democrats thought they would ride back into Majorities in the House and Senate, but they didn’t, Republicans would hold on for another 10 years.
Second, Sununu was being judged on issues at the National Level, and though a total meltdown at the State House would cause the voters to lose confidence in their Federal Democratic Party Companions, that had yet to happen by Nov. 2008. (Though we are starting to see signs of it in NH and elsewhere) Sununu was seen as a member of the ineffectual Republican Congress, and Independents, who are the largest voting bloc in the state had no use for its members.
Third, your are incorrect about Shaheen’s popularity. Shaheen had comparable favorability ratings to Sununu in 2002 and in 2008. However, NH in 2002 had a 6% Registered Republican Voter Advantage in one of the best Republican Cycles since 1994. She even led Sununu a week out from the election. He only pulled ahead in polling in the last week out, probably due to late deciders going with the national trend. It was probably the reason Sununu was able to hold the seat against Shaheen. Bob Smith was dumped in favor of the more popular John Sununu because Shaheen was seen as a favorite to beat the erratic former Senator. Sununu actually stood a chance, and squeaked out a narrow victory. By 2008, the national mood had changed, and the Republican advantage was completely erased with Republicans having just 5,000 more registered voters overall (less than 1 percent). Though they maintained similar favorability ratings, and Sununu OUT-RAN McCain (NH was supposed to be McCain’s “Second” Home State...bull of course), it wasn’t enough to hold on. You put Sununu up against Hodes, who is not well-known, and is frankly, not a very exciting guy nor candidate, Sununu will win. Plus 2010 will be a much improved year for Republicans, with Democrats now in power over everything and screwing everything up, the national and state brands of the GOP can’t hold Sununu down any longer against a lesser known and weaker candidate.
That being said, I see one other strong GOP candidate, which is Steve Merrill. He’s a little old, 62, but a strong fiscal conservative and a Former Governor, however I’m not sure of his positions on Social Issues. Though often touted, Guinta and Ayotte probably need to win in another lower level of office first before launching out for the Senate. The AG in NH is an apppointed position (no statewide electability), and Mayors are not usually good Senate Candidates in more ways than one (Bob Corker, Rudy Giuliani....)
NH has been different in that regard, though. On occasion, they've voted in Democrats, but have often swept them out after a fairly brief time. 2008 was a historic precedent because not since the 1977-79 had they grabbed a 3-1 federal majority and not since 1841-1845 (not a typo) did the Dems retain all the House seats for two elections in a row. Two years was enough for the voters to toss Republicans Craig Benson from the Governorship and Chuck Douglas from Congress (though Douglas had some personal problems, unlike Benson, who never had enough time to show what he could do and had the dreadful misfortune of having the Man on the Mountain disintegrate on his watch, not as if that was his fault, but bad political and psychological karma). Also, too, I don't believe since the 1800s the Dems have retained majorities in the legislature in both bodies for two elections in a row, either.
"Third, your are incorrect about Shaheen’s popularity. Shaheen had comparable favorability ratings to Sununu in 2002 and in 2008. However, NH in 2002 had a 6% Registered Republican Voter Advantage in one of the best Republican Cycles since 1994. She even led Sununu a week out from the election. He only pulled ahead in polling in the last week out, probably due to late deciders going with the national trend. It was probably the reason Sununu was able to hold the seat against Shaheen."
My point about Shaheen is that with 6 years out in the political wilderness without portfolio, running a rematch would be difficult, but she upended Sununu who was perpetually mired in stagnant ratings. He should've beaten her as the incumbent, but he didn't. It's why I don't favor him to go for the open seat.
"You put Sununu up against Hodes, who is not well-known, and is frankly, not a very exciting guy nor candidate, Sununu will win."
See, I just don't agree here. Hodes is known now (unlike in past cycles), and he jumped from a 7% victory in '06 to a 15% one in '08. That should've been a closer race and wasn't. Even Che Porter increased her margin of victory in a rematch with Jeb Bradley. If Hodes is already leading Sununu now, I don't really expect that to change unless there ends up a dramatic collapse for the "D" party label, but I don't think we should take the risk. I have no problem letting Sununu go after Porter, but the open seat is way too risky now.
"That being said, I see one other strong GOP candidate, which is Steve Merrill. He’s a little old, 62, but a strong fiscal conservative and a Former Governor, however I’m not sure of his positions on Social Issues."
I'd like to know myself on the latter, but I think I'd rather give him a shot at it. He at least left office with good approvals and did well at the ballot box.
"Though often touted, Guinta and Ayotte probably need to win in another lower level of office first before launching out for the Senate."
Manchester Mayor (as the largest city) is a high-profile office in the state. Guinta deposed a supposedly-popular Dem incumbent. He could easily run for Congress, Senate or Governor (and he can do so without risking his office, since the elections for Mayor are in odd numbered years). Ayotte is a bit trickier since she hasn't held a job where we know how she'd do in actual vote-getting, although that didn't stop Warren Rudman, who went from AG to the U.S. Senate (albeit with a 4-year interval).
"The AG in NH is an apppointed position (no statewide electability), and Mayors are not usually good Senate Candidates in more ways than one (Bob Corker, Rudy Giuliani....)"
I think you mean good Senators as opposed to candidates. Some Mayors have made it quite far (Pete Wilson went from San Diego Mayor to the Senate; Dianne Feinstein from ex-SF Mayor to the Senate; Dirk Kempthorne from Boise Mayor to the Senate; Richard Lugar from Indianapolis Mayor...; Hubert Humphrey from Minneapolis Mayor; Norm Coleman from St. Paul Mayor; Ed Zorinsky from Omaha Mayor; Pete Domenici from Albuquerque Mayor; Joe Clark from Philadelphia Mayor; Linc Chafee from Warwick Mayor; Corker from Chattanooga; Jake Garn from Salt Lake City). Of course, Corker wasn't the preferred candidate of the Conservative base as we regarded him as a RINO (I voted for his opponent, ex-Congressman Ed Bryant), although now he's moved slightly to the right of Lamar! Alexander. It's not fair to lump in Giuliani, since his health scare forced him to withdraw. We don't know if he would've edged out Hillary (although I think he might've lost by a very narrow margin).