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Obama's Rosy Numbers Carry Real Risk
Barron's ^ | February 28, 2009 | Gene Epstein

Posted on 02/28/2009 6:22:48 AM PST by reaganaut1

...

President Obama's 10-year budget plan for "A New Era of Responsibility" is so irresponsible, so fraught with economic risk, that sooner or later it will probably be subject to political backlash that will cause it to unravel.

Even taken on its own terms, the plan projects a permanent ratcheting-up of federal spending as a share of current-dollar gross domestic product. Since that ratcheting-up is based on rosy scenarios for both numerator and denominator, the true burden of federal spending will probably be far greater than projected.

On the spending side, let us say the president succeeds in admirable endeavors such as facing down the agribusiness lobby. Aren't the costs of some of his programs a bit too low? For example, even friends of his health-care plan wonder if the projected costs are unrealistically low by a few hundred billion.

Few things highlight the cynicism behind this ostensibly responsible plan more than the assumptions for growth in gross domestic product. One would think it a bit irresponsible to plan a nation's budget on the assumption that the next 10 years of GDP growth will be better than the previous 10.

Yet that is exactly what Obama's projections for spending as a share of current-dollar GDP would have us believe. Far more responsible would be to assume that growth will probably not do as well, and for a simple reason.

Beginning in 2011, the plan would raise taxes on single people earning at least $200,000, and on couples earning at least $250,000. Whatever else one might say about the benefits of boosting taxes on the rich, few would deny that there is at least some trade-off between those benefits and the unforeseen costs of the retarding effects on growth.

(Excerpt) Read more at online.barrons.com ...


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Government; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2009polls; bho44; bhobudget; bhojobapproval; first100days; obamabudget; obamalies; taxes; taxincreases

1 posted on 02/28/2009 6:22:48 AM PST by reaganaut1
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To: reaganaut1
IMHO, people need to quit pussyfotting around with what this President is doing. IMHO, they need to drop pretense and PC speak and talk directly to what is going on.

Barack Hussein Obama is a marxist ideolog who is rapidly going about bringing the "fundamental" change he promised and that change is a dismantling and destruction of the free market before our very eyes and the replacing of it with a command economy.

THE AUDACITY OF TRUTH ABOUT BARACK HUSSEIN OBAMA'S CIRCLE OF FRIENDS

THE AUDACITY OF TRUTH ABOUT BARACK HUSSEIN OBAMA

BARACK HUSSEIN OBAMA IN HIS OWN WORDS

NOW WE KNOW WHAT A COMMUNITY ORGANIZER DOES

OBAMA, THE STOCK MARKET, AND ENERGY

THE AUDACITY OF TRUTH ABOUT BARACK HUSSEIN OBAMA'S UPBRINGING

2 posted on 02/28/2009 6:28:48 AM PST by Jeff Head (Freedom is not free...never has been, never will be. (www.dragonsfuryseries.com))
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To: reaganaut1

When will those who are “listened to” finally stand up and say the dems own this mess lock, stock, and disaster.


3 posted on 02/28/2009 6:29:01 AM PST by xcamel (The urge to save humanity is always a false front for the urge to rule it. - H. L. Mencken)
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To: reaganaut1

Obama is not interested in a budget. He is systematically ruining the U. S. dollar. That is his goal, and he is succeeding.


4 posted on 02/28/2009 6:34:57 AM PST by abclily
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To: reaganaut1

From NRO The Corner:

Re: I Don’t Want To Pay For It (Either) [Steve Hayward]

Amen, brother Jonah. I don’t want to pay for this stuff either. I was sympathetic to Ben Stein’s argument during GW Bush that we should have an income tax surcharge on the wealthy to pay for the war, and I’d have gladly paid such a surtax for that cause. But not this explosion of government.

Options: I’ve started buying municipal bonds, which I never thought I’d do until. . . well, never, actually. Good ones right now are an attractive buy on the merits, but the added bonus of sealing off the income from Obama makes it all the nicer. But my bigger idea is to go all Randian and literally go on strike (and I’ve never really been much of a Rand fan, by the way—Whittaker Chambers had her down right). I’m going to start converting income opportunities into more leisure by deliberately reducing my income. Already between federal and state income taxes, self-employment taxes, the AMT, and phased-out dependent deductions as income rises, I’m at a marginal rate of about 50% on my last dollars earned from writing or anything else. So it will pay to keep below Obama’s high income threshold. I suspect a lot of self-employed people will make similar calculations and adjustments, and the revenue yield will be far below what Obama’s people project. Welcome to Europe.


5 posted on 02/28/2009 7:02:40 AM PST by StatenIsland
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To: abclily

“Obama is not interested in a budget. He is systematically ruining the U. S. dollar. That is his goal, and he is succeeding.”

Preach it, abclily!

And not only that, breaking the middle class is his goal, not an “unintended consequence.”


6 posted on 02/28/2009 7:05:44 AM PST by StatenIsland
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To: Jeff Head
Well I believe that Obama’s “distribution of wealth” is really a program to punish the “wealthy” or basically as everyone has noted on these boards turn America into a socialistic country.

His stimulus plan has successfully begun the crash of Wall Street, the Government's ownership in major banking institutions and insurance companies.

Right now my hubby and I are thinking about taking our money out of the market before it gets to nada. We'd either put it into bonds or even in a sock so the Government doesn't get it.

Our income will be below his $200,000 gotta pay more taxes level this year. We own everything, fortunately, free and clear and planned to be able to sustain our lifestyle for two years.

I believe more and more people who have worked hard for their money are now thinking harder of how to protect their assets from the Obama plan. We are not “wealthy” but owned our own business for 40 years, saved, invested and now are seeing it all go down the drain in a matter of months.

We have worked hard for our money. Something Obama doesn't understand. Never worked a day in his life!

7 posted on 02/28/2009 7:18:27 AM PST by not2worry (WHAT GOES AROUND COMES AROUND)
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To: reaganaut1

B.O.’s real objective is to destroy the US economy and turn the US into a dictatorship. When things get bad enough, he will declare martial law, arrest all of Congress and then call for fair and open elections after outlawing the Republican party. Before he can do this, he must take all of the guns away.

With a well armed citizenry, he cannot do much except put troops on every corner. He must gain entry into our homes.


8 posted on 02/28/2009 7:26:25 AM PST by DownInFlames (C)
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To: not2worry
Obama is a marxist.

The democratic congress is talking about taking 401K programs and turning them into social security. Taking both your part and whatever company contribution.

If this comes up on the floor for a vote, the day it is up for a vote in the Senate after passing the House, is the day I will pull ALL of my money out of the plans I am in, and invest them on my own in bonds or other long term securites...including gold.

I will take whatever early withdrawal penalty and keep whatever portion of my own money rather than see the government confiscate it and it apply it to more of their socialistic bovine excrement.

9 posted on 02/28/2009 7:28:45 AM PST by Jeff Head (Freedom is not free...never has been, never will be. (www.dragonsfuryseries.com))
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To: DownInFlames
With a well armed citizenry, he cannot do much except put troops on every corner. He must gain entry into our homes.

He's not going to get into our homes because we're not going to willingly surrender our guns, nor will he be able to command the military to exert martial law against us.

The American people have not been directly threatened by their own government in a very long time. Politicians' memories and knowledge of culture and history are scant. Obama and his minions will shocked into incontinence by what happens when the fit hits the shan.

10 posted on 02/28/2009 8:23:13 AM PST by Windflier (To anger a conservative, tell him a lie. To anger a liberal, tell him the truth.)
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To: reaganaut1

President Obama’s 10-year budget plan for “A New Era of Responsibility” is so irresponsible, so fraught with economic risk, that sooner or later it will probably be subject to political backlash that will cause it to unravel.

No it won’t- the lamestream media and ignorant liberals will NEVER admit anything obama does is wrong or harmful.


11 posted on 02/28/2009 8:48:15 AM PST by MissEdie (America went to the polls on 11-4-08 and all we got was a socialist and a dottering old fool.)
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To: not2worry

We have worked hard for our money. Something Obama doesn’t understand. Never worked a day in his life!

This is something he has in common with 90% of his supporters.


12 posted on 02/28/2009 8:50:59 AM PST by MissEdie (America went to the polls on 11-4-08 and all we got was a socialist and a dottering old fool.)
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To: reaganaut1

At what point will it make economic sense for a married couple to get divorced, yet still live together, to save on taxes?


13 posted on 02/28/2009 9:07:28 AM PST by uscabjd ( a)
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