Posted on 02/16/2009 7:47:40 PM PST by dangermouse
8:17 CT
I do not know what is going on here, and I don't think I want to.
Someone, apparently someone in Asia, wants dollars. A LOT of dollars. There is a forced-liquidation event underway that is massive, it is against all asset classes and it is spreading.
It originated at approximately 7:15 CT this evening and originated out of Asia somewhere. All of the primary currency crosses got hit at once - Euro, Pound, Yen - all weakened dramatically against the dollar and it is still going on. The Asian stock markets got walloped at the same time in coordinated waves of forced selling.
At the same time the US futures markets got nailed as well, down some six handles on the /ES in a near-vertical drop. While this sounds "not that big" to move these markets in a coordinated fashion like this is a trillion-dollar enterprise - this is not some small company that went bankrupt, or even a large company.
There is no news coverage at the present time identifying the source of this but it is not small and contrary to some reports it is not "automatic selling"; this is forced liquidation.
Folks, if this translates into Eastern Europe where there are severe instabilities already brewing literally everything in the financial world could come apart "all at once."
The worse news is that if this happens Bernanke will have killed us (in the US) by extending those swap lines all over the planet during the last six months. These will become utterly uncollectable and they are massive, in the many hundreds of billions of dollars.
To those who are reading this, I hope if you're in the markets you are prepared for extreme levels of violence. You must expect that the authorities will try to arrest the destruction if they are able, but you must also be prepared for the possibility that we have reached a "critical mass" point beyond which "duck and cover" is the only winning strategy.
Unfortunately.
I hope I'm wrong; this is going to be a long night.
The USD will be the last to go, but when it does, we won't be able to print USD fast enough.
But we are not there yet.
What has scared things probably is that fact that the USA is going to be trying to borrow trillions from China, and others, and Europeans think the USA will succeed in that, making for a strong dollar. So everyone is buying USD, and running from their own currency.
Temporarily good for USD, but in the long run, a bad , bad thing.
Thanks for the ping SatinDoll.
LOL...now that’s funny. But on second thought..goodnight all
That would definately not be me.
you can watch current trading on cnbc.com . Doesn’t look too bad at this point.
Those markets are down 1-2%, which is surely volatile but hardly apocalyptic.
Yup, you’re right. I’ve seen it all red a handful of times since October, but thought I’d join in on the doom and gloom....
Ping!
You want the medium size, 0.8 CF. When they are full, they are quite a thing to lug around. I see them in Staples for around $85. each, while Sam’s has them for $45. They are black, and on the palettes the cardboard containers crush easily. Even a crushed box probably contains a good fireproof box inside. You can fit 18,000 22LR rounds in one, or 1500 223 rounds, or about a thousand 357 magnum or 44 magnum rounds in one. They probably weigh a hundred pounds full. The thought is simply that I don’t want a fireman endangered with rounds cooking off or the rounds water damaged in the basement. As to the rating, 30 Min at 1500 degrees is typical, and they need to be stored alongside a cement wall on the floor. No stacking and no shelf storage is allowed as they could fall and break open in the fire.
http://www.samsclub.com/shopping/navigate.do?dest=5&item=411269
China, despite the suspect statistics that indicate 6% growth will not continue to purchase US Debt at the rate they historically have. In fact, it is not out of the realm of possibility that they are net sellers, needing funds to shore up their own Obama style stimulus.
Asian Shares Down Before US Resumes; Aussie Miners Hold Up
By Rosalind Mathieson
Last update: 8:05 p.m. EST Feb. 16, 2009
SINGAPORE (MarketWatch) — Asian shares were lower Tuesday after a U.S. holiday with shares in Seoul hurt by a slumping Korean won, though Australia’s OZ Minerals surged 27% on a A$2.6 billion takeover bid from China’s Minmetals.
“The market remains patient and very selective,” said Nigel Scott, an adviser at ABN AMRO Craigs in Australia.
The S&P/ASX 200 was down 0.2% with Japan’s Nikkei 225 off 1.1% - at its lowest intraday level for the year - and Korea’s Kospi Composite down 2.2%; New Zealand’s NZX-50 was 0.2% lower.
All eyes were on how Wall Street would fare after its Monday holiday. Investors were still concerned about the health of banks around the globe, and the broader economy, waiting for details of further steps by the U.S. administration to shore up sentiment.
Automakers Chrysler and General Motors were due Tuesday to present their long-term recovery plans to the U.S. government. The duo have received the first installment of a combined $17.4 billion in government loans and could receive the next installment if their plans pass muster.
For now, “risk aversion remains the main driver (and) it’s not difficult to see why,” said analysts at UBS.
“Policymakers keep struggling to stabilize banking systems, politicians remain slow to use fiscal policy aggressively despite the worldwide economic slump, central banks are running out of room to cut rates and consumers and companies are increasingly fearful.”
Some Australian miners were on the rise despite a fall in base metal prices in London, with Rio Tinto up 2.1%; OneSteel gained 4.5% after the company said iron ore contract prices look set to fall in the current round of negotiations, but not as much as some had been expecting.
PaperlinX jumped 38% after confirmation it was selling its Australian Paper unit to Japan’s Nippon Paper Group for A$600 million in cash.
Foster’s, the world’s second-largest wine company, was up 2.5% with its first-half net profit rising 3.2% to A$411.3 million, in line with analyst forecasts; it did though forecast second-half writedowns as it attempts to restructure its wine business.
Korean bank and steelmaker shares were down as the won fell against the U.S. dollar; Woori Finance was off 4.0% with Posco 2.2% lower.
Insurance stocks were weaker in Japan with T&D Holdings down 10%. Shipping stocks fell back a little as the Baltic Dry Index - a measure of dry bulk demand - dropped 3.2% Monday, with Nippon Yusen down 0.7%, Mitsui O.S.K. Lines down 1.3% and Kawasaki Kisen slipping 0.3%.
New Zealand’s market was being supported by a partial recovery in Fisher & Paykel Appliances, up 12.3% after a 35% fall Monday which came on news of a profit downgrade.
The Australian dollar gave up its early gains, falling to US$0.6490. The central bank indicated there was little it could do to offset the effect on the economy from the global slump, but said recent monetary and fiscal stimulus should stoke demand later in the year.
Some analysts expected the currency to be supported by interest in Australian mining assets. “Despite the credit crisis and lack of cross border funding we are seeing the story in Australia is actually quite upbeat in terms of cross border funding and resource M&A,” said Westpac chief currency strategist Robert Rennie.
The U.S. dollar was near Y91.68, from Y91.71 late in North American trade, with the euro at $1.2763, down from $1.2797, and at Y117.01, from Y117.40.
European currencies remained under pressure amid worries about the region’s economic health, while the yen was shrugging off the doubts over Finance Minister Shoichi Nakagawa after his odd behavior at a weekend Group of Seven briefing, for which he later apologized. Nakagawa said he intended to remain in his job with reports he had the support of government leaders.
Japanese government bonds gained with March futures up 0.22 at 139.22 points.
Spot gold was $1.80 higher from London, at $944.30 a troy ounce.
March Nymex crude oil futures were down 54 cents on Globex at $36.97 a barrel, in sluggish trade after the U.S. holiday.
Oh shit... here we go, this is gonna get rough. I wonder if this is when they propose a new Global currency and ram it down our throats?
Good night :)
Frankly, I'm watching an America that has gone from "the home of the brave," to a country that is scaring it'self to death!!!
Just in case you didn't see TigerlikesRooster's post from a week ago:
European bank bail-out could push EU into crisis (16.3 trillion needed?)
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/2183965/posts
This is what I found out yesterday:
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/2183965/posts?page=15#15
Bottom line: Last Tuesday the EU had meeting regarding a secret 17 page paper discussing toxic assets totaling 16.3 trillion British Pounds. I originally saw the Telegraph article on Drudge. Afterwords, the Telegraph sanitized the article. The second link has some info on when and why, maybe....
I worry they will use something like this as cover to do some very bad things to our national liberties and constitutional rights.
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