Posted on 02/07/2009 7:08:16 PM PST by Ravnagora
Russia may face a grim economic downturn but one would scarcely think so to judge by the sound of sabre-rattling emerging from the Kremlin. Unless, of course, it is intended as a domestic distraction from the gathering gloom.
The double-act of Dmitry Medvedev and Vladimir Putin has come up with a series of security initiatives that seem designed to provoke, or at least irritate, the new administration in Washington. Without even waiting to hear how President Barack Obama intends to conduct his relations with Moscow – something that Joe Biden, his vice-president, may well address on Saturday at the annual Munich Security Conference – the Russian leaders have thrown down the gauntlet.
First, they leaked details of naval and air bases to be established on the shores of the Black Sea in the breakaway Georgian province of Abkhazia, whose independence is recognised by Moscow alone. Then they signed an air defence treaty with the former Soviet republic of Belarus, apparently paving the way for an anti-missile defence system to counter one planned by the previous US administration across the border in Poland. Moscow appears to have persuaded the Central Asian republic of Kyrgyzstan to oust the US from its air base at Manas, outside Bishkek, in exchange for $2bn (€1.6bn, £1.4bn) in loans, and $150m in financial aid.
Russia and the former Soviet republics of Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan – the so-called Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO) – have agreed to form a “rapid reaction force” which is intended to be just as good as the equivalent force operated by the Nato alliance, according to President Medvedev.
Outside analysts are sceptical whether any of these moves amounts to a particularly effective military gesture but they are certainly intended to suggest that Russia is not rushing to embrace the new US administration.
The air defence deal with Belarus is on a par with Mr Medvedev’s announcement, on the day Mr Obama was elected, that Russian Iskander missiles would be sited in the Kaliningrad enclave to counter the US missile defence system. It appears to negate a subsequent conciliatory gesture from Moscow, saying those missiles would not be deployed if the US also held back.
As for the Abkhaz naval base, it may be intended as an insurance policy for the day when, or if, Russia is forced to vacate the existing base for its Black Sea fleet at Sevastopol in the Crimea, which is leased from Ukraine until 2017. Oksana Antonenko, senior fellow for Russia and Eurasia at the International Institute of Strategic Studies in London, believes all the actions are part of a pattern, intended to provoke a US reaction, and give Russia more bargaining chips in negotiating a new relationship with Washington. “In Russia there has never been any euphoria about Obama as there has been in the rest of Europe,” she says. “Russia is still very mistrustful of the US, and Putin profoundly so.
“But there is an overwhelming view in Moscow now that the Americans are in decline and will be forced to negotiate with Russia from a position of weakness. They seem to expect all the concessions to come from Obama. It is very unrealistic.”
The response from Washington has been muted. Russia is simply not a high priority for the new president. Western analysts believe Russia’s production of Iskander missiles is not enough to base any significant numbers in Belarus as well as on its southern borders. As for the rapid reaction force, it is regarded with wry amusement in Brussels. None of Russia’s would-be allies wants to be used as a pawn in some muscle-flexing contest with Washington. Even Abkhazia is unhappy about becoming a vast military base for its neighbour.
So perhaps the entire operation is for domestic purposes. That way it might at least make sense.
Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2009
When Obama says no option is off the table, i think he means surrendering.
http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5goWof5DxRRehdBZfn1c9yamBvA-gD9664V8G0
They're rusted out through lack of maintainence. No money is available for needed repairs.
This is all pretty unbelievable. No telling where this will all end. Probably not good I’ll bet.
The old fart Putin would have the Whimp Obozo for lunch in a second up-close and personal.
obama wets his pants, biden advises him to gird his loins, film at eleven...
Great, we got this kind of crap going on and we have Obama, Biden, and Hillary to rely on.
So screwed!
Well, we have about five more months before the “big test” Biden warned us about. Obama is weak and they know it. Mr. Know-It-All Obama will have an expensive education on the ways of the world at the cost of American lives before this is all over, I’ll bet.
It will be a sad four years for the people of the world who depended on American strength and backbone for their security. They are now at the mercy of despots and crazed dictators across the globe.
Hillary will trot out, like Chamberlain, and proffer a few catchy "smart power" phrases, and the world will go to hell in a handbasket in the meantime.
Sadly, it is too early to see if this is indeed unrealistic.
1-Eagle said:
“Well, we have about five more months before the “big test” Biden warned us about.”
That’s exactly what crossed my mind. I think the group of countries from whence that test might come is pretty daunting.
And that’s putting it mildly.
They sense what a lightweight Zero is, just as they did Kennedy...
The dictator who has his goons whack any reporters who criticize him, is creaming his jeans, spoiling for a fight with the big ear wimp pissant from Kenya.
Obama is probably hiding under the table.
Redbob wrote:
“They sense what a lightweight Zero is, just as they did Kennedy...”
Well, remember - Kruschev DID back off during the very scary October Cuban Missile crisis. (Great movie with Martin Sheen about that whole scary episode if you haven’t seen it is “The Missiles of October” from 1974)
We don’t know yet what President Obama will do when pushed up against the wall. Rhetoric is one thing...and action is another.
But I thought Russia was our friend now.
Barak The Kenyan will find out that Chicaco politics are
like amateur hour, compared to the world stage.
His OJT will have to pick up a bit.
0bama is a real gift to our enemies. He’s the biggest Useful Idiot of all time.
Hussein is clueless. He’ll fold like a cheap suit.
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