Posted on 01/10/2009 5:13:45 PM PST by saganite
Scientists at the GKSS Research Centre of Geesthacht and the University of Bern have investigated the frequency of warmer than average years between 1880 and 2006 for the first time. The result: the observed increase of warm years after 1990 is not a statistical accident.
Between 1880 and 2006 the average global annual temperature was about 15°C. However, in the years after 1990 the frequency of years when this average value was exceeded increased.
The GKSS Research Centre asks: is it an accident that the warmest 13 years were observed after 1990, or does this increased frequency indicate an external influence?
Calculating the likelihood
With the help of the so called "Monte-Carlo-Simulation the coastal researchers Dr. Eduardo Zorita and Professor Hans von Storch at the GKSS-Research Centre together with Professor Thomas Stocker from the University of Bern estimated that it is extremely unlikely that the frequency of warm record years after 1990 could be an accident and concluded that it is rather influenced by a external driver.
The fact that the 13 warmest years since 1880 could have occurred by accident after 1990 corresponds to a likelihood of no more than 1:10,000.
(Excerpt) Read more at sciencedaily.com ...
I was just been sarcastic and yes, to believe that the humans (...we are part of the Earth for the past 10 000 Years) have the power to alter Earth's 4 Billion Years climate, it is beyond comprehension, that we are bestowed with so much power to alter Earth's way of functioning.
We are a very little pimple on Earth's big butt and eventually we will fade away, while Earth is still doing his spiel for the next 4 Billion Years.
All I know is, last month when our town was completely shut down with record snowfall, we were all secretly wishing for some greenhouse gases to warm things up!
.Simulation studies using too few subjects as input may not be very robust, and the results should be interpreted with caution unless they are validated by subsequent observations.2. The accuracy of the surface temperature record is questionable. There are a myriad of reasons, ranging from the disappearance of rural stations, urbanization, poor siting and instrumentation, corrupt data adjustments by the official referees at GISS and Hadley, etc. Since 1979, we've got the far more objective satellite records, which call the credibility of GISS into question more and more each year. GIGO.Monte Carlo is also a sampling technique, and as such shares the same problems of sampling theory; namely the results are also subject to sampling errors. Generally, therefore, Monte Carlo solutions from finite samples are not "exact" (unless the sample size is infinitely large).
3. If temperature is rising (and I think it generally has since 1880, and cooled from WWII through the mid 70s, and has cooled since 1998), who's to say it's anthropogenic? The cause and effect relationship between CO2 and temperature is the inverse of what the enviromarxists claim. Physically, CO2 can't be causing warming due since it's influence is logarithmic and tailing off.
All of this said, it's rather ridiculous to expect people reading a political discussion board to refute a statistical analysis. Send it to Stephen McIntyre or someone qualified. All we have is opinions. Well, I've got them anyway.
Your graph showing changes in C02 and temperature over the years does not refute what scientists are telling us now.
No climate scientist has ever said C02 was the trigger that caused warming at the end of past ice ages.
What climate scientists do say is that there’s a relationship between temperature and C02 that goes both ways.
The head-in-the-sand deniers choose not to recognize that.
Yeah, looking at sub-zero here for the next few nights, and our record snow fall.
Hugo Chavez on Global Warming, from GreenLeft.org
"The environment is suffering damage that could be irreversible global warming, the greenhouse effect, the melting of the polar ice caps, the rising sea level, hurricanes with terrible social occurrences that will shake life on this planet."
"I believe this idea has a strong connection with reality. I don't think we have much time. Fidel Castro said in one of his speeches I read not so long ago, 'tomorrow could be too late, let's do now what we need to do'."
"I believe it is time that we take up with courage and clarity a political, social, collective and ideological offensive across the world a real offensive that permits us to move progressively, over the next years, the next decades, leaving behind the perverse, destructive, destroyer, capitalist model and go forward in constructing the socialist model to avoid barbarism and beyond that the annihilation of life on this planet."
--Hugo Chavez, at the 16th World Festival of Youth and Students, held in Caracas on August 8-15, 2005
Thanks. I’ll take a look.
The thirteen warmest years ON RECORD have occurred since 1990.
That’s out of about 120 years.
Yes, it’s a blink of an eye in the earth’s history, and therefore easy for people who don’t want to accept reality to ignore, but it’s a significant trend.
[i]Oh, the global warming cheerleader is here! Lets stand up everybody, he knows it all![/i]
I know enough not to let stupid partisanship get in the way of facts.
Global warming deniers are a drain on our party. People like Inhofe make us look like idiots.
Somehow, somewhere along the way some PR group managed to convince too many people that global warming was a partisan issue. A socialist vs. free market Republican issue.
As I posted to you before, the origination of Global Warming is Socialist.
Be proud Watermelon!
I have a religion, thanks.
Is there something wrong with religion? You seem to imply there is. Sorry you feel that way.
And my Christian religion doesn’t mean I have to be a blind fool and ignore everything scientists report.
Sure it does. It shows that, even after C02 levels rose due to warming oceans, no additional warming occurred as a result of the C02 increase. CO2 easily dissolves out of warm water like it does in a warm bottle of soda.
No climate scientist has ever said C02 was the trigger that caused warming at the end of past ice ages.
Al Gore certainly gave that impression in his blockbuster Sci-Fi film.
Yeah, right.
Socialist scientists dreamed up global warming to redistribute wealth.
And little green men visit you every night and steel your soda crackers.
lol!
Who gives a f@#k that “Al Gore sure gave us that impression..”?
Al Gore is not a climate scientist. Al Gore is a fat maroon.
If you’re choosing to ignore science because of Al Gore, then I guess Al Gore is your master.
but its a significant trend
You don’t know what “significant” nor “trend” means in this debate. How many degrees of freedom are in this sample?
Did you happen to catch the part about the CO2 released from warming waters NOT causing additional warming? Moreover, please show us the "science" which proves that C02 at such historically low levels like we have today can cause global warming.
And I’m a holocaust denier.
And a Pedophile Rapist.
Bishop Compares Global Warming Skeptics To Pedophile Rapist
Welcome to the rational face of climate cult alarmism
Smearing people who are skeptical about man-made causes of global warming as akin to Holocaust deniers was apparently not enough for the climate cult alarmists, who are now saying that if you disagree with them you’re no better than infamous Austrian pedophile and rapist Josef Fritzl.
http://www.prisonplanet.com/articles/june2008/060208_pedophile_rapist.htm
And the Sun has no influence on our atmosphere.
And there is a Huge Incontrovertable CONSENSUS that nobama999 loves like a red-haired step-child because it is his blanky.
Even within one season the weather is so cyclical. Last week Alaska bitter cold, next week radical warm up. Next week the Alaskan cold invades the Eastern US. I’ll wager that W. Europe warms up too.
Talking about 18 years is anecdotal, anyway I only count 8 years using US data. This 10,000:1 number assumes that temperature is a random event when they are obviously attempting to prove it isn’t. In looking at the data it is easy to see that there are groups of years above and below the average.
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