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To: raisetheroof
"Dr. Holdren, now a physicist at Harvard, was one of the experts in natural resources whom Paul Ehrlich enlisted in his famous bet against the economist Julian Simon during the “energy crisis” of the 1980s. Dr. Simon, who disagreed with environmentalists’ predictions of a new “age of scarcity” of natural resources, offered to bet that any natural resource would be cheaper at any date in the future..."

However it was Holdren, not Simon, who had it right; the only part of the prediction of increasing world consumption and rising prices that was incorrect was the time frame.

And even then, not by much, here's copper, for example:


4 posted on 12/22/2008 10:01:00 AM PST by M. Dodge Thomas
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To: M. Dodge Thomas
Nice cherry-picked chart.

Jan high-grade copper is $1.3360/lb as I write this.

The differential isn't supply or demand; it's government. Julian Simon was spot on.

8 posted on 12/22/2008 10:09:08 AM PST by SAJ
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To: M. Dodge Thomas

What is the price today?


11 posted on 12/22/2008 10:14:19 AM PST by Hans
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To: M. Dodge Thomas
Nicely done piece of misinformation. I especially like the way that you cherry-picked the timeframe. Surely there's price data available since May. Why did you choose not to include it? Might it have undermined your bogus point?

Incidentally, the original bet was for a ten year period using inflation-adjusted dollars and Simon won the bet, quite handily.

19 posted on 12/22/2008 11:01:52 AM PST by Bob
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To: M. Dodge Thomas

Copper is now ~$1.30 lb off from $4.00. Your chart doesn’t show the entire drop back to where copper was in 2003.

http://www.kitcometals.com/charts/copper_historical_large.html#5years


20 posted on 12/22/2008 11:06:07 AM PST by zek157
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To: M. Dodge Thomas
Your chart is woefully out of date:


26 posted on 12/22/2008 1:11:41 PM PST by Atlas Sneezed (Guns don't kill people. Criminals and the governments that create them kill people.)
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