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Blame the Sun for a Cloudy Day?
ScienceNOW Daily News ^ | 17 December 2008 | Phil Berardelli

Posted on 12/18/2008 11:39:44 PM PST by neverdem

Enlarge ImagePicture of drought patterns

Linked? Drought patterns across Australia (orange) seem to closely follow solar magnetic cycle activity.

Credit: Robert Baker (Geographical Research 46 (4): 396)

An Australian researcher has linked the sun's magnetic activity to rainfall patterns in his country over the past century. The connection is solid enough that meteorologists might be able to use it to make better long-term weather predictions. But experts remain cautious about the wider implications of the findings.

Scientists have long known that the sun plays a key role in Earth's weather patterns. For example, the number of sunspots on its surface--dark zones of intense magnetic activity--peaks about every 11 years, followed by a period of dormancy. The cycle causes swings in sea-surface temperatures--more sunspots mean warmer oceans, and fewer mean chillier waters--but the effect is small. There's also a 22-year cycle, in which the sun changes the polarity of its magnetic field, but it's unclear how that phenomenon affects Earth.

Now geographer Robert Baker of the University of New England, Armidale, in Australia, has linked solar magnetic activity to Earth's climate--at least regionally. Using sunspot counts and Australian meteorological data, as well as NASA satellite data for more recent years, he tracked sunspots and rainfall in Australia from 1876 to 2006. In this month's issue of Geographical Research, Baker reports that the amount of rainfall in most regions of the country tracked the 22-year magnetic cycle almost exactly. "It was unbelievable," Baker says. At the height of magnetic activity, rainfall across most of the country was plentiful. At the other end of the cycle, many of those same regions experienced severe droughts. The findings are particularly compelling, Baker says, because even though the lengths of the magnetic cycles are not precise and can vary by several years, the rainfall patterns followed them.

So what's behind the connection? Baker thinks it has to do with the amount of ultraviolet (UV) radiation hitting Earth. When the reversing of polarity approaches, he explains, the sun's magnetic field weakens, allowing more UV energy to reach our planet. More UV radiation kills off some of the oceans' plankton, which produce dimethyl sulfide, one of the primary atmospheric chemicals involved in cloud formation, and fewer clouds mean less rainfall.

Based on the 130 years of data, Baker predicts that the current solar cycle, which reached a minimum in 2007, will continue a bit longer. In fact, he says, "there could be a 100-year minimum in solar activity," meaning much of Australia could experience a prolonged drought.

"This could be an important paper," says climatologist John Christy of the University of Alabama, Huntsville. He explains that current climate models don't give the solar effect much weight in general, because scientists think it is overwhelmed by the buildup of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. But if there's a mechanism by which the sun's variations are tied directly to weather patterns, such as the effect of UV radiation on cloud formation, he says, the sun may have a greater impact than the models are showing. As a result, the models might not be creating an accurate picture for the future.

Solar-terrestrial physicist Mike Lockwood of the University of Southampton in the U.K. says that the paper suggests a previously unknown effect caused by the solar magnetic cycle. "If the connection [between UV radiation and precipitation] proposed here were real," he says, "it would be both highly significant and very illuminating." On the other hand, Lockwood says, the paper contains no statistical tests, and connections such as the one it suggests "can arise readily by chance, even for extended intervals."


TOPICS: Australia/New Zealand; Culture/Society; News/Current Events; Testing
KEYWORDS: agw; climatechange; globalwarming; rainfall; sunspots
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Exploratory Analysis of Similarities in Solar Cycle Magnetic Phases with Southern Oscillation Index Fluctuations in Eastern Australia

IMHO, this is not good for the global warmists.

1 posted on 12/18/2008 11:39:45 PM PST by neverdem
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To: El Gato; Ernest_at_the_Beach; Robert A. Cook, PE; lepton; LadyDoc; jb6; tiamat; PGalt; Dianna; ...
New World post-pandemic reforestation helped start Little Ice Age, say Stanford scientists

How genes are silenced - Molecular snapshot reveals the mechanics of RNA interference.

Publish in Wikipedia or perish - Journal to require authors to post in the free online encyclopaedia.

IMHO, the last link isn't the worst development. I search on Yahoo first. Results are often Wikipedia links. Scientific and technical searches will have more credibility. I wouldn't trust Wikipedia for anything dealing with politics.

FReepmail me if you want on or off my health and science ping list.

2 posted on 12/19/2008 12:04:08 AM PST by neverdem (Xin loi minh oi)
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To: xcamel; Tolerance Sucks Rocks; steelyourfaith; cogitator

interesting stuff


3 posted on 12/19/2008 12:09:53 AM PST by neverdem (Xin loi minh oi)
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To: neverdem

And the little ice age just happened to line up exactly with the Maunder minimum...

Why the constant search to avoid the obvious?


4 posted on 12/19/2008 12:26:46 AM PST by DB
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To: DB
Why the constant search to avoid the obvious?

It's hard to milk the sun for grants.

5 posted on 12/19/2008 12:48:16 AM PST by this_ol_patriot (I saw manbearpig and all I got was this lousy tagline.)
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To: this_ol_patriot

And here I thought science was the pursuit of truth...

Silly me...


6 posted on 12/19/2008 12:50:54 AM PST by DB
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To: neverdem
There's one thing I find confusing by this theory.

If lower solar magnetic activity leads to more UV hitting the earth killing plankton which results in less dimethyl sulfide which in turn leads to less cloud formation, wouldn't that lead to warming and not cooling??? More clouds reflect more sun light away from earth meaning less solar heat for the earth.

All the published data indicates just the opposite affect. Lower solar magnetic activity results in fewer sun spots and a cooler earth.

What am I missing?

7 posted on 12/19/2008 1:03:13 AM PST by DB
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To: neverdem; Genesis defender; proud_yank; FrPR; enough_idiocy; Desdemona; rdl6989; Little Bill; ...
Thanx !

 




Beam me to Planet Gore !

8 posted on 12/19/2008 2:38:13 AM PST by steelyourfaith
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To: this_ol_patriot
It's hard to milk the sun for grants. ,/I>

*Chuckle*

9 posted on 12/19/2008 2:38:58 AM PST by Caipirabob (Communists... Socialists... Democrats...Traitors... Who can tell the difference?)
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To: this_ol_patriot; neverdem

And the little ice age just happened to line up exactly with the Maunder minimum...

Why the constant search to avoid the obvious?

To: DB

Why the constant search to avoid the obvious?It's hard to milk the sun for grants.

 


Furthermore, it invalidates the moral-ethical framework of man-centered religion,  where only a proper liberal is omnipotent and must adjudicate between sinners and victims.  In the grossest form, it is still difficult to sue Sol.

 

10 posted on 12/19/2008 3:20:34 AM PST by Harrius Magnus (LIBERALS: We should invade their countries, kill their leaders and convert them to Christianity.)
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To: neverdem
On the other hand, Lockwood says, the paper contains no statistical tests, and connections such as the one it suggests "can arise readily by chance, even for extended intervals."

Snerk!

Break out the Kalman filters for meta-studies on the *pro*-AGW papers...?

11 posted on 12/19/2008 4:24:36 AM PST by grey_whiskers (The opinions are solely those of the author and are subject to change without notice.)
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To: neverdem
Scientists have long known that the sun plays a key role in Earth's weather patterns.

Glad to see they finally figured that one out.

12 posted on 12/19/2008 4:41:24 AM PST by facedown (Armed in the Heartland)
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To: neverdem

Get a DVD of this and pass it around. The big secret - the sun warms the planet. Shhhhhh...

13 posted on 12/19/2008 4:48:01 AM PST by Libloather (December is Liberal, Leftist, Marxist Awareness Month.)
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To: DB; piytar; El Gato; Ernest_at_the_Beach; Robert A. Cook, PE; lepton; LadyDoc; jb6; tiamat; ...
What am I missing?

My guess is the original article.

"More UV radiation kills off some of the oceans' plankton, which produce dimethyl sulfide, one of the primary atmospheric chemicals involved in cloud formation, and fewer clouds mean less rainfall."

IMHO, that sentence needs more explanation.

piytar made a nice summary.

We Are the Green Team - Will Obama's environmental advisors spearhead a new global warming treaty by next year?

No sunspots -> less solar wind -> more cosmic rays -> more clouds -> more snow/rain and a cooler planet.

If lower solar magnetic activity leads to more UV hitting the earth killing plankton which results in less dimethyl sulfide which in turn leads to less cloud formation, wouldn't that lead to warming and not cooling???

It's more.

Plankton May Influence Climate Change Says UCSB Scientist

The findings indicate that phytoplankton will then produce more DMS(dimethyl sulfide) in response to this increased ultraviolet radiation, causing increasing cloudiness and mitigating the effects of global warming.

IMHO, it's another feedback loop that is fascinating, elegant and unlikely to happen by dumb luck.

14 posted on 12/19/2008 12:42:22 PM PST by neverdem (Xin loi minh oi)
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To: neverdem

Thanks.

So that key sentence in the posted article is a bit funky leading to a wrong conclusion.

The original article essentially says the opposite of what the posted one implies.


15 posted on 12/19/2008 12:49:57 PM PST by DB
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To: neverdem
Here's some info including a model from NASA which shows how the phytoplanton comes and goes as it relates to El Nino and La Nina:

http://www.nasa.gov/vision/earth/lookingatearth/plankton_elnino.html

Nice & Clear Cycle Chart on Nino/Nina Impact -

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensoyears.shtml

16 posted on 12/19/2008 1:33:54 PM PST by BossLady (Ok Everybody......Get Ready For ......'THE MOOD RING PRESIDENCY'......)
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To: BossLady

Thanks for the URLs.


17 posted on 12/19/2008 1:46:36 PM PST by neverdem (Xin loi minh oi)
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To: neverdem; OKSooner; honolulugal; Killing Time; Beowulf; Mr. Peabody; RW_Whacko; gruffwolf; ...

FReepmail me to get on or off


Click on POGW graphic for full GW rundown

GREENIE WATCH

Ping me if you find one I've missed.



18 posted on 12/19/2008 2:06:58 PM PST by xcamel (The urge to save humanity is always a false front for the urge to rule it. - H. L. Mencken)
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To: DB
More clouds reflect more sun light away from earth meaning less solar heat for the earth.

For what it is worth:

On the nightside of Earth, clouds prevent loss of heat by reducing its radiation into space.

Also consider that the planet Venus is shrouded in clouds. It is about 67 million miles from the sun. Earth is about 93 million miles from the sun. Using the law of inverse squares, (67/93)^2 = 0.52, shows that Earth receives from the sun about 52% of the radiation per unit of surface area that Venus does.

Yet Venus is a planetary hothouse.

19 posted on 12/19/2008 2:51:43 PM PST by ngc6656
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To: neverdem

URL Welcome! ;)


20 posted on 12/19/2008 3:19:37 PM PST by BossLady (Ok Everybody......Get Ready For ......'THE MOOD RING PRESIDENCY'......)
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