Skip to comments.The 2008 Democratic Shift
Posted on 12/10/2008 12:30:54 PM PST by forkinsocket
After the 2004 presidential election, Republicans appeared to be in good shape. They had won the presidency, had a 30-seat margin in the House of Representatives and 55< U.S. Senators. Four years later, the situation is very different. Republicans lost 31 House seats, six Senate seats, and control of both chambers of Congress in the 2006 midterms. In addition to losing the presidency, Republicans lost approximately 20 more House seats and at least six more Senate seats in the 2008 elections. Not since the Hoover administration have Republican fortunes been reversed so clearly and precipitously.
These shifts are, we think, indicative of a more fundamental change in partisan loyalties that could reshape American politics for a generation. Starting in the late 1960s and continuing through 2004, Republicans posted consistent, steady gains in standard measures of partisan support, as shown in Figure 1. Democrats held almost a 20-point advantage over Republicans in the period from 1952, when the American National Election Studies (anes) started measuring party identification, through the mid-1960s. Starting in the 1970s and accelerating during the Reagan years, Republicans narrowed this gap to less than five percent, with near partisan parity in the 2000 and 2004 presidential elections. At the same time, the geographic bases of the parties shifted, with Democrats winning the Northeast and West Coast and Republicans holding almost everything in between.
In four short years, Democrats have reclaimed most of the ground they lost during the Reagan era. Figure 2 shows the percentage of Democrats and Republicans in six different media polls between 2005 and 2008. For each polling organization, the lines show the trend in Democratic self-identification and the trend in Republican self-identification, with Democrats now having an advantage between 5 and 10 percent.
(Excerpt) Read more at hoover.org ...
2) America rolled over and went back to sleep, lulled into complaceny by Democratic claims that they can protect us.
3) Too much White Guilt made too many people into racists, voting FOR a man because of the color of his skin.
4) The press and broadcast media pounded, pounded, pounded every tiny flaw in the War On Terror, and mad America the Bad Guys...again.
There was good reason for this Reps party inept and aimlessnes 2005-2008, and Pelosi Dems careful and brilliant focused attack strategy on GWB, who seemed to play the role. But this time in history right now ,when GWB leaves and McCain lost, is our big chance to turn it back. But we can still screw it up, and this UAW bailout bill is a good way to do it. Thanks Hannity!
We could avoid all this swinging back and forth if people would use their heads and had longer term memories. Unfortunately, that seems to be asking a bit too much of a large segment of the population.
Dude, keep dreaming. One word ensures a lock for the Dems for the next century ... AMNESTY.
You forgot: 5) The Republicans (with a little help from their Democrat friends) fielded another repellent loser candidate like Bob Dole, etc., because it was his turn.
Kids spend much more time with teachers, TV, and the internet, than they do their own parents.
It follows that since the left control education and the media, kids are going to move to the political left.
When conservatives start writing stories for film, when conservatives pursue careers in education, when conservatives look to become professors of sociology, etc, then there will be change.
Sadly it’s going to take 20+ years to have any real effect.
"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus
“You forgot: 5) The Republicans (with a little help from their Democrat friends) fielded another repellent loser candidate like Bob Dole, etc., because it was his turn.”
Which Republican would have done better?
Virtually anyone besides Huckabee.
How do I “bookmark” something?
It’ talk radio’s fault. (s)
It's worked that way so far 'Dude', so I see no reason not to believe it will continue to occur.
I hope you're right; I think you're wrong on that.
Illegal Alien Amnesty + ACORN = 20 million more democrat votes.
Main street Americans want three things - peace, prosperity and JOBS. GOP supported free trade without balancing its impact on jobs. GOP had full faith that corporate America will replace the loss manufacturing jobs with service and high tech jobs. Surprise, surprise, corporate America excited by the huge profits made in exporting manufacturing jobs overseas and discovering a high quality work force in India and China started to train them on how to do service and high tech jobs. Suddenly the college educated sons and daughters of factory workers found themselves competing with H-1B workers and offshoring of jobs to India and China. The Dems step into the breach and promise to review all the free trade agreements and put a hold on many in the pipe line while the GOP promise to keep the status quo. FINALLY, the GOP pursued a policy of not enforcing nor monitoring Wall Street. The GOP accepted a dangerous economic concept that corporate America will never do anything to hurt themselves. Along came the investment bankers and insurance fund managers, many in their 40’s (X generation) who have the life philosophy of making it big or losing everything approach to finance. For them nothing in life is permanent. Love is not permanent, jobs are not permanent, prosperity is not permanent, thus when it happens do not nourish it for future generations, just help yourself and screw everyone else. Banks and insurance companies leveraged 40 to 1 and the GOP did not even noticed the dangers until it was too late. The bankers and insurance companies got too strong and rich to lobby Congress to bloc any reform. Sure, the CRA and Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac is a Dem invention that ultimate collaspse but it exposed a crack in the already stretched financial/insurance system of leveraging which was nutured under the GOP philosophy of less government oversight and regulation followed by full faith in businessmen. System explodes and the GOP is held responsible. Peace, prosperity and JOBS, the GOP failed in the last two and with it loss of political power in America. Only good news is the system is so bankrupt, that Obama/Dems cannot save the US economy from Depression. Actually no one is going to be able to save us in Washington DC. My only advice is go into survival mode, organize your family and community to deal with deflation followed by hyper inflation and all the social unrest that will come with bands of roaming unemployed and homeless (drugs, crime and riots).
Concur with your list , 50sDad. Republican pork, complacency, White Guilt made people vote for a (weak) man because of the color of his skin, and the press and broadcast media carried and covered for the same guy for the same reason. Reason 5 that I’d add would be President and his people repeatedly refusing to lower themselves enough to even try to defend themselves, their ideas and principles, and their party. Repubs just haven’t been much concerned with the voters’ opinion of them for a few years.
Probably most any of them since it was ONLY Sarah Palin who saved McCain from the embarrassment he and the Republicans so justly deserved.
Remember, it was Reagan that first granted amnesty to illegals. People's memories are short. Amnesty might be enough to get Obama elected for a second term, but then people will forget about it.
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