Sundown for California

The American ^ | November 12, 2008 | Joel Kotkin

[reaganaut1]

[California] appears headed, if not for imminent disaster, then toward an unanticipated, maddening, and largely unnecessary mediocrity.

Since 2000, California’s job growth rate— which in the late 1970s surged at many times the national average—has lagged behind the national average by almost 20 percent. Rapid population growth, once synonymous with the state, has slowed dramatically. Most troubling of all, domestic out-migration, about even in 2001, swelled to over 260,000 in 2007 and now surpasses international immigration. Texas has replaced California as the leading growth center for Hispanics.

Out-migration is a key factor, along with a weak economy, for the collapse of the housing market. Simply put, the population growth expected for many areas has not materialized, nor the new jobs that might attract newcomers. In the past year, four of the top six housing markets in terms of price decline have been in California, including Sacramento, San Diego, Riverside, and Los Angeles. The Central Valley towns of Stockton, Merced, and Modesto have all been awarded the dubious honors of the highest foreclosure rates in the nation during the past year.

Even with prices down, many of the most desirable places in California are also among the most unaffordable in the nation. Less than 15 percent of households earning the local median income can afford a home in L.A. or San Francisco. In Santa Barbara, San Diego, Oxnard, Santa Cruz, or San Jose, it’s less than a third. That’s about half the number who can buy in the big Texas or North Carolina markets. Moreover, state officials warned in October that they might have to seek as much as $7 billion in loans from the U.S. Treasury. This is a disappointing turn for a state that once saw itself as the harbinger of the future.

[ken21]

>During (jerry) Brown’s watch, and even despite his occasional opposition, the Democratic Party came increasingly under the sway of public employees, trial lawyers, and narrow interest activist groups. Their ability to raise money and impose their political will often outweighed that of even the most powerful business interests.<

that’s right. kaleefornicate is captive to identity politics of the liberal-socialists.

[Rummyfan]

Let's see.....

The State Government is almost one hundred percent liberal Democratic, even though the governor is a RINO, and is largely beholden to state and local employees unions...

They keep enacting laws making it more difficult to do business in the state, many due to environmental concerns over that bugaboo of climate change...

Restrictive building and zoning laws have made it almost impossible for middle class familes to afford housing in San Francisco, San Diego, Santa Barbara, and other desirable areas...

A radical gay subculture permeates the larger urban areas...

And a large illegals community ...

I lived in California for fifteen years and it truly was The Golden State. But I left in 1996 and though I still miss aspects of it - especially come January and February - it was the right decision.

[anton]

Kalifornia is a great place to visit. Laid back people, reasonable vacation prices and beautiful scenery. No set of circumstances could persuade me to actually live there.

[puroresu]

Repeat after me: OUR DIVERSITY IS OUR STRENGTH

[griswold3]

ATLAS
SHRUGGED
UPDATED FOR
THE CURRENT
FINANCIAL
CRISIS.
BY JEREMIAH TUCKER
http://mcsweeneys.net/2008/11/20tucker.html

[ckilmer]

All of these work. Look at the map where those who owe more than the house is worth. Notice any similarities to the unemployment picture and concentrations of illegals The wall st journal piece has the best map The rest are stats. So you can't get a nice graphic overlay. (unless you know a programmer who will convert the stats to graphs.)

You'll notice that the highest concentrations of underwater mortgages tend to be in places of high concentrations of Hispanics and illegals.

About 48% of the bad loans are carried by hispanics. You have to guess what percent of those are illegal. My wag is that about half of those are carried by illegals. That said, when their mortgages go bad, these people tend to just leave the house. I live in Northern Virginia. South of me in Prince William county real estate prices are a third of what they were a couple years ago. That's largely because illegals have just abandoned their houses when things went wrong or they couldn't pay.

[LS]

We boycott CA. Would really like to go back to DisneyLand, and the Marriott Irvine with the Sports Club Irvine, but won’t. I have to go there for business once in December and don’t even look forward to that.

[sailor4321]

We bailed in 2003 and soon realized we should have done it much, much sooner. California events are always good for a few laughs; if we lived there, they’d be good for a few tears...

[Eric in the Ozarks]

Unlike California, MN’s population is growing.

[Nea Wood]

...they tend to have traditional family values by and large and are pleasant folk to live around.

I live in California. I'm sorry, but they are not pleasant folk to live around, at least not the recent immigrants. They have loud, all-night parties with mariachi music blasting. Their kids run screeching through the aisles of stores and the mothers do nothing about it. As my town has become more and more Latino, the following has increased: Crime. Graffiti. Abandoned shopping carts everywhere. Rusty cars and old sofas left on lawns. Bars on doors and windows. Chickens and goats in yards. "Day laborers" gathered in parking lots, leering and making animal noises at women who walk by. Rude store employees who act put out if you ask them to speak English. Car accidents where the Latino driver runs from the scene and turns out to have been unlicensed, uninsured, and/or illegal. Etc., etc.

There's a reason why people are fleeing California. There's a reason why even American-born Latinos complain about the recent immigrants. They are NOT pleasant to live around.

[ought-six]

“Unlike California, MN’s population is growing.”

Yes, with third-worlders. The Twin Cities alone has the largest population of Somalis outside of Somalia.

[Eric in the Ozarks]

I know. They’ve taken over the Mpls airport.

[sionnsar]

This is a disappointing turn for a state that once saw itself as the harbinger of the future.

It still is. Many of those who leave take their failed ideas elsewhere and try again.

[Oldpuppymax]

When the vote of the people is ignored by the “ruling class”, the nation, or state, is doomed. The public will was trampled upon by the California Supreme Court when it overturned the 1997 vote refusing to recognize the travesty of homosexual “marriage.” And now the left is working to undermine the rights of the people once again. The economy is the least of Californias problems.

[Alberta's Child]

In the context of this discussion, the irony is that recent immigrants in California may be the single biggest factor in the massive public support for Proposition 8.

[kabar]

LOL. “We’ve always been at war with Eastasia.” “War is Peace; Freedom is Slavery; Ignorance is Strength.”

[Oatka]

I lived in California for fifteen years and it truly was The Golden State. But I left in 1996 and though I still miss aspects of it . . .

I'll join the "I Bailed Club." Left in 1988 after 20 great years and agree with you that it was THE Golden State. We lived in Oceanside, five miles from the ocean and enjoyed the "Mediterranean Weather" climate. We'd take the kids down to the harbor/beach, turn 'em loose and never had a worry. Things started to go bad for us in the early 80s (politically, not financially) and we tried toughing it out, but after repeated auto tag and income tax increases, antigun laws, escalating Nanny State rules, etc., it became painfully clear we'd never be able to retire there.

Like many others, we never looked back. Occasionally we visit friends there but the visits are coming further apart - the place just looks/feels crappier each time we go there and the California we loved exists now only in our memories.

[Alberta's Child]

You may be right, but I've always understood the terms "immigration" and "emigration" to refer to the movement of persons from one country to another.

The terms "in-migration" and "out-migration" are used on a smaller scale (state and local levels) to describe the movement of people in and out of a region without crossing a national border. From a demographic standpoint, government officials try to distinguish between people who move from California to Korea and those who move from California to Texas.

[SierraWasp]

Thanks for the map. I notice that all the break-neck growth that Placer County enjoyed during the past decade has turned from an asset, to a liability.

My county, just across the river to the south has suffered from arrested development during the same period and is as light colored as your very northerly CA county.

Before, I couldn't find an affordable place to move to in Placer because of the boom, so now maybe I can move across the river due to the bust... I'm sure most of the darker coloration in Placer is due to the part closest to Sacramento, however.

I'm off to look for a forclosure in Placer County, tubebender!!!(either that, or a swap)

[Smogger]

excellent post.