Posted on 11/22/2008 4:01:21 PM PST by dano1
I AM endlessly charmed by chatter about when this slowdown/recession will end. (snip)
But this does not look like a typical recession. A typical recession is brought on by Federal Reserve tightening in the face of excessive demand and rising prices. The economy still functions normally, but purposeful credit tightening slows activity. When the Fed loosens up and money starts flowing, demand increases and growth returns. This, at least, is the pattern of the large recessions we have had since the Great Depression, which was a special case, as we shall see.
Smaller recessions have been brought on simply by the inventory-business cycle, but they, too, were amenable to Fed stimulus.
That was because normal credit mechanisms were working.
This time it’s different. Or, because that is a dangerous phrase, let me say that maybe this time it’s different.
The problem now, as in 1929 to 1940, is that the economy is not functioning normally. It is shot through and through with fear, even terror. Worse yet, and unlike the situation in the Depression, government miscues have been only a part of the problem. This fear is so pervasive that it has brought the credit sector to a virtual shutdown, even to borrowers with good credit. At this point, the lending sector is so panicked —largely from the government’s inconsistent behavior and failure to rescue Lehman Brothers — that it is frozen. Not totally, but way too much for ease of lending and maybe even for the survival of a robust economy. And if a colossal worldwide deleveraging spreads to Treasury debt owned by foreigners, the situation will be deadly serious.
The unemployment rate is rising. Housing is in collapse. Manufacturing is weak. The unionized auto sector is dying before our eyes. Commodities are falling hard and fast.
(Excerpt) Read more at nytimes.com ...
Sigh.
The 70’s were not worse than this.
Everything has an END. It may be the ultimate one.
“But FDR didn’t have a country that was 100 TRILLION DOLLARS IN DEBT!”
Care to explain where you came up with that figure?
In other words, never.
Yes, the 70's and early 80'S were worse (everone forgets how bad 80 - 83 were, fashions not withstanding. However, the rate of change to the worse now, misery index, interest rates + unemployment is frightening. It could get worse very soon...... Time will tell.We had Reagan then, now we have what? a mini Stalin?
Excellent point!
I wish Bush would do the same. He was late in focusing on the economy. It cost the party dearly.
Yeah, right. - Along with the smoking man on the grassy knoll who faked the lunar landing while hiding in area 51.
***You may have noticed, that not only has there been no move to undo the CRA, CAFE, nor any of the other cute acronyms, but the Dems in Congress continue to deny any responsibility for the economy’s collapse.***
You are absolutely right.
Just correcting my tagline.
I hear tell a tin-foil hat can help your condition. Next you'll tell me you saw unmarked "Black Helos" flying over your house.
I think you are sadly mistaken. This country isn't like the country which existed when Peril harbor was attacked.
That was a time when every American pulled part of the load, cheered for every hard won victory no matter how small, and had immense pride in the flag. That is why we won against impossible odds in the pacific.
We are fighting a different kind of war now, a war against our American cultural identity, our beliefs in freedom and capitalism, a war against our sovereignty.
And worse, we are fighting a war within our own borders, with an enemy from within.
I'm not so sure this one is going to end well.
War is an ugly thing, but not the ugliest of things. The deacayed and degraded state of moral and patratoic feelings Which thinks nothing is worth war is much worse. A person who has nothing for which he is willing to fight Nothing more important then his own personal saftey is a miserable creature And has no chance of being free unless made and kept so by the esetertions of better men Than himself.
-John Stewart Mill
those “55M” are going to be TOO busy trying to work to march anywhere....and fighting off the losers who have NOTHING and will be trying to beat down their doors.
One of the few Ben Stein writings I strongly disagree with.
The government is not the doctor. The American people are not the patient. The only real way out of this is getting the government out of the way and letting the American people produce things of value. That is the only way to become wealthier and not poorer. Carbon taxes, capital taxes, “wealthy” people taxes will not make things better. They will make things far worse.
And as far as saving the Big 3... I don’t think so. The unions made much of the mess they find themselves in. Until they start paying the consequences they aren’t going to change their way. Government has no right to take my hard work and transfer it to UAW for job banks, retirement, etc. If the UAW want contracts that kill their host then so be it. They can die along with it.
Cheap energy would be something that would turn it around.
If we really wanted to we could do it with nuclear.
Cut all the red tape and simply do it.
I received an email today from Dr. Robert McHugh with the following market commentary: (Dr. McHugh’s technical analysis newsletter has been consistently predicting the current market crisis for many months.)
We now find ourselves in a catastrophic Bear Market, Grand Supercycle degree Wave {IV} down, which is correcting a Bull Market from 1718, before the United States even started. We show this degree labeling in the big picture chart on page 13 in this weekend’s newsletter to subscribers. How do we know this? Because the S&P 500 fell to 752 Thursday, below the closing low the market formed at the bottom of the Bear Market in 2002. It means that low in 2002 was primary degree wave (4), that prices have now fallen below that bottom, which means the rally from 2002 to 2007 is a completed primary degree wave (5), which is all that was needed to complete a series of larger degree wave fives, supercycle degree wave (V)’s top, and Cycle degree wave V’s top. This is not good. It means there is a very high probability that we are going to see new lows far below Thursday’s 752. This hurricane is not over, not by a long shot.
However, the good news is we are about to enter a period of relative calm, the second phase - a rally/sideways phase - to this three phase Bear market. This Grand Supercycle wave {IV} down is correcting centuries of rally very fast, and furiously. Time-wise, it may be relatively short compared to other Grand Supercycle waves, but damage-wise, this Bear Market is going to change the world as we know it.
Ben Stein - Another Hollywood Socialist moron who appears to have received his degree in Economics from a Cracker Jack box.
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