AM Alert: 'Hope for the best and ignore the obvious'

SacBee: Capitol Alert ^ | 11/20/8 | Shane Goldmacher

[SmithL]

The Legislative Analyst's Office will release a new report today analyzing the woeful state of California's finances. It will flesh out last week's estimate that the state faces a $27.8 billion deficit over the next 19 months.

But a new report from Beacon Economics predicts things will look even glummer in the future:

• Labor markets are showing increased signs of stress.
• There is little sign of a recovery in housing, and foreclosure rates are growing worse by the day.
• Consumer markets have fallen off a cliff.
• Corporate profits are taking a serious beating.

The report commissioned by California Forward, the nonpartisan government reform group, describes itself as "decidedly more pessimistic" than the LAO or Schwarzenegger administration projections, largely due to lower projections for corporate taxes.

The report also predicts the first year-over-year decline in statewide property taxes "since the Great Depression," according to Fred Silva, fiscal policy adviser to California Forward.

"Our forecast implies that we are quite literally on the edge of a fiscal cliff," the report says, rather bluntly.

Then there is this gem of analysis: "At the moment, California's budget strategy seems to adhere to a slightly different logic, one that might be summed up as: Hope for the best and ignore the obvious."

And they write that as if it's a bad thing.

In her visit with the Capitol Bureau on Wednesday, Assembly Speaker Karen Bass gave her own take on the role of partisanship, ideology and political futures on the budgetary stalemate:

"One of the reasons why it's hard for my Republican colleagues to vote for revenue -- more important than their tax pledge -- is their next primary," Bass said.

"If they vote for revenue, then they're going to be easily challenged in another primary. But...

[SmithL]

Rats are still trying to tax ourselves back into prosperity!

[redstateconfidential]

[R_Kangel]

I predict that within the next year we will be hearing the same remarks and statements being said about the American economy.

Sadly, the so called liberal utopia of California is a specter of the future of this country.

[raptor29]

And not a Republican anywhere willing to aggressively point out that states like California, Michigan, Massachusetts etc. are simply falling apart financially after years of single-party, Democrat rule. Gutless Republicans, across the board. EVERY FACT is on our side in whatever issue we would want to argue, but we have NOBODY willing to stand up and tell the truth, for fear the media will say bad things about them.

[R_Kangel]

Bingo

Too many politicians and not enough leaders.

[raptor29]

Also, ‘the labor markets are stressed’? Send the damn Mexicans home then. This place is overrun with these freeloaders, ruining the job market, ruining the neighborhoods, spiking the gang crime figures upward, a complete negative in every way for California. I hope the job market goes straight in the tank so these bastards will have to go home. Similar to the Auto makers, NO BAILOUT for California.

[McGavin999]

You don’t know whether they are pointing it out or not. What paper would print it? They could be screaming bloody murder and nobody would ever know.

[flaglady47]

“And not a Republican anywhere willing to aggressively point out that states like California, Michigan, Massachusetts etc. are simply falling apart financially after years of single-party, Democrat rule”

Add Illinois to that list. Ugh.

[cookcounty]

"even glummer "

..as in "even difficulter?"

[raptor29]

WE would know if any of them were ‘screaming bloody murder’. Free Republic would know. So who are they? Which Republicans are aggressively making any noise out of this, in Congressional sessions, to the media, wherever? Who are they? Bunch of losers and wusses.

[TenthAmendmentChampion]

and Arnold is at some Global Warming conference talking about how they need to regulate industries. I heard them mention: forestry, agriculture(!), transportation, and energy.

Where's the gold??

[happygrl]

It would be interesting to read an alternative history of California where Proposistion 187 was not only passed, but implemented.

[Vaduz]

Also tent sales have increased 73%.

[calcowgirl]

California Forward has the advantage of a substantial, long-term funding commitment from five of California’s largest private foundations: The California Endowment, The Evelyn and Walter Haas Jr. Fund, The William and Flora Hewlett Foundation, and the David and Lucile Packard Foundation and the Irvine Foundation.

California Forward will be genuinely nonpartisan. Some past reform proposals have been sunk by suspicion of a partisan agenda. But California Forward will remove any potential taint of partisan gamesmanship through a leadership board that includes prominent Republicans and Democrats and is co-chaired by Thomas V. McKernan, a longtime member of the California Business Roundtable, and Leon E. Panetta, former White House Chief of Staff to Bill Clinton.