“The Republicans are in demographic trouble. When you look at the ethnic composition of Obama’s coalition, you see that it’s kind of a mini-America. About two-thirds of Obama’s supporters are white and a third minorities. The Republican coalition, by contrast, is white, male, and old. There’s the first problem. Overall, Obama may have lost the white vote (while still doing better than Kerry did), but in 2008 whites (not counting Hispanics, per Census convention) made up the smallest proportion of the electorate since the start of exit polling. Obama scored tremendous victories among minorities. He won more than 90 percent of the black vote. He won the Hispanic vote by a two-to-one margin. He won the Asian vote by a similar margin.”
It’s worth repeating this paragraph because it cuts to the heart of the loss by conservatives and Republicans. Our majorities are fading away, because _we_ - as a demographic group - are slowly, but inexhorably fading away as well.
Here’s a hard truth of American conservatism (for however long it will continue to be force in politics):
- Not all whites are conservative, but,
- Nearly ALL conservatives are white.
And the demographic groups that will replace us are not only of a different skin complexion, but of a different political complexion. The fires of conservatism simply do not appeal to them, as they have to us.
Take issue with these assertions if you wish. But the laws of demographics are among the most immutable of all, and that begets the statement that “demography is destiny”. It is why Europe - at least the white/Christian Europe that we have known to now - cannot survive as an ongoing culture if current demographic trends continue. And it is why America as we know it today will at some point cease to exist as a nation in which conservatism works it will. You can’t work that will without political victories, and without the demographic numbers with which to achieve those victories, the “conservative voice” is destined to grow weaker.
Note that I said “America as we know it today”. Could an America of say, 50 to 75 years distant face a Balkanization, or a breakup not unlike that of the [former] Soviet Union into a “Commonwealth of Independent American States”?
- John
In this outstanding analysis, you mention:
"- Not all whites are conservative, but, - Nearly ALL conservatives are white."
Very true. Keep in mind, however, that conservatism has always been a reactive force, from medieval times through the presence. A multi-racial conservatism may develop, but it will not look anything like the conservatism of today.
One of the more interesting developments of this past election day, however, was the role of hispanics and blacks in passing Prop 8, which would have lost had only whites voted. The fact is that the white population is growing more secular, meaning that SoCons will need to work with black/hispanic Democratic voters more actively in the future for initiatives, if not for candidacies.
As a small "l" libertarian, I have grown use to being a minority within a minority, and don't expect this to change.
Here’s a hard truth of American conservatism (for however long it will continue to be force in politics):
- Not all whites are conservative, but,
- Nearly ALL conservatives are white.
And the demographic groups that will replace us are not only of a different skin complexion, but of a different political complexion. The fires of conservatism simply do not appeal to them, as they have to us.
Demographics are changing due to immigration both legal and illegal plus the higher birthrates of immigrant females. Black birthrate isn't so high.
Major Republicans have been lying for years about getting immigrants to vote Republican
They will vote Democrat because they want handouts, welfare, housing subsidies, free Obama health care etc
Even the ones we call socially conservative will vote for socialism. The Mexicans will vote against gay marriage in California but vote overwhelmingly for Democrats. The party that can give them more by taxing the white population more
Who are the freakin' morons who said bring in loads of immigrants legal and illegal to pay for my future Social Security?
It's the reverse! I'm paying for them today!