Sure, Bob.
From July 19, 2004, Business Week Online, "Is A Housing Bubble About To Burst? As rising rates send mortgage payments higher, demand may cool": [...] A downturn in housing would squeeze recent buyers who overleveraged themselves to pay top prices -- and risk slowing the entire economy by cooling consumer spending as well as housing construction, lending, and the real estate business.
[...]
A downturn in housing, if it comes, is likely to chill the economy. People will feel less wealthy, hence more reluctant to spend. Goldman, Sachs & Co. (GS ) economist Jan Hatzius, among others, argues that a decline in housing wealth dampens consumer spending at least twice as much as a same-sized loss in the stock market. Even homeowners who still feel like spending would have a harder time qualifying for home-equity loans or cash-out refinancings -- a major source of consumer liquidity for the past few years.
[...]
Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan has downplayed the danger of a national housing bubble, arguing in part that housing is a local market. [...] But bubbles are appearing in enough markets that their impact, if they were to pop, would be felt nationally.
[...]
The most troublesome aspect of the price runup is that many recent buyers are squeezing into houses that they can barely afford by taking advantage of the lower rates available from adjustable-rate mortgages. That leaves them fully exposed to rising rates. In fact, the rise in one-year adjustable rates since late March has already raised annual borrowing costs for new buyers by 25%. And data from the Federal Housing Finance Board show that the most expensive markets tend to have the highest share of buyers with adjustable-rate mortgages.
Today's housing prices are predicated on an impossible combination: the strong growth in income and asset values of a strong economy, plus the ultra-low rates of a weak economy. Either the economy's long-term prospects will get worse or rates will rise. In either scenario, housing will weaken. Caveat emptor.
--By Peter Coy in New York and Rich Miller in Washington, with Lauren Young in New York and Christopher Palmeri in Los Angeles
Thank GOD my farm is paid for. All I pay is $680 a year property taxes.
Personally, I think all money lenders are crooks. We didn’t have any choice but to finance the farm when we first bought it. We had only been married four years at the time but managed to pay if off in less than 10 years.
We have since been beseiged by banker “crooks” wanting us to mortgage it with one of those “home equity line of credit” loans so that we can have money to buy whatever we want. I always tell them to get lost. The last straw came when my husband bought his current truck. He had a good trade-in so the loan wasn’t that much but it didn’t qualify for a low interest auto loan since it was slightly past the age limit. They wanted him to buy it with a home equity loan at a low interest rate. When the loan officer mentioned it I almost came across the desk at her. My husband actually thought we should do it. I told both of them, in NO uncertain or ladylike terms, that I would not put up a $300,000 farm to buy a $12,000 truck in order to save 3% interest. I told the loan officer that no bank would take my home if something happened to my job, etc. She said “oh we wouldn’t do that” and I just laughed at her. We ended up with a personal loan at 9% interest but the farm was safe from those leaches.
Banks and other lending institutions are legal crooks in my book. My husband and I have different ways of managing money because I would prefer to never borrow money for anything. I will not sign away our home for any reason though.
Exactly.
For years, everbody and his brother has been predicting that the housing bubble would burst, and the consequences from that. And this guy thinks that he was the only one?