Posted on 11/14/2008 12:05:38 PM PST by Dubya-M-DeesWent2SyriaStupid!
Hello, everyone! The talk you are about to hear is the result of a lengthy process on my part. My specialty is in thinking about and, unfortunately, predicting collapse. My method is based on comparison: I watched the Soviet Union collapse, and, since I am also familiar with the details of the situation in the United States, I can make comparisons between these two failed superpowers.
I was born and grew up in Russia, and I traveled back to Russia repeatedly between the late 80s and mid-90s. This allowed me to gain a solid understanding of the dynamics of the collapse process as it unfolded there. By the mid-90s it was quite clear to me that the US was headed in the same general direction. But I couldn't yet tell how long the process would take, so I sat back and watched.
I am an engineer, and so I naturally tended to look for physical explanations for this process, as opposed to economic, political, or cultural ones. It turns out that one could come up with a very good explanation for the Soviet collapse by following energy flows.
What happened in the late 80s is that Russian oil production hit an all-time peak. This coincided with new oil provinces coming on stream in the West - the North Sea in the UK and Norway, and Prudhoe Bay in Alaska - and this suddenly made oil very cheap on the world markets. Soviet revenues plummeted, but their appetite for imported goods remained unchanged, and so they sank deeper and deeper into debt. What doomed them in the end was not even so much the level of debt, but their inability to take on further debt even faster. Once international lenders balked at making further loans, it was game over.
What is happening to the United States now is broadly similar, with certain polarities reversed. The US is an oil importer, burning up 25% of the world's production, and importing over two-thirds of that. Back in mid-90s, when I first started trying to guess the timing of the US collapse, the arrival of the global peak in oil production was scheduled for around the turn of the century.
SNIP...ARTICLE IS VERY LONG
Financial collapse seems to be particularly painful if you happen to have a lot of money. On the other hand, I run across people all the time, who feel that "Nothing's happened yet." These are mostly younger, relatively successful people, who have little or no savings, and still have good paying jobs, or unemployment insurance that hasn't run out yet. Their daily lives aren't much affected by the turmoil on the financial markets, and they don't believe that anything different is happening beyond the usual economic ups and downs.
Commercial collapse is much more obvious, and observing it doesn't entail opening envelopes and examining columns of figures. It is painful to most people, and life-threatening to some. When store shelves are stripped bare of necessities and remain that way for weeks at a time, panic sets in. In most places, this requires some sort of emergency response, to make sure that people are not deprived of food, shelter, medicine, and that some measure of security and public order is maintained. People who know what's coming can prepare to sit out the worst of it.
Political collapse is more painful yet, because it is directly life-threatening to many people. The breakdown of public order would be particularly dangerous in the US, because of the large number of social problems that have been swept under the carpet over the years. Americans, more than most other people, need to be defended from each other at all times. I think that I would prefer martial law over complete and utter mayhem and lawlessness, though I admit that both are very poor choices.
Social and cultural collapse seem to have already occurred in many parts of the country to a large extent. What social activity remains seems to be anchored to transitory activities like work, shopping, and sports. Religion is perhaps the largest exception, and many communities are organized around churches. But in places where society and culture remain intact, I believe that social and cultural collapse is avoidable, and that this is where we must really dig in our heels.
Also, I think it is very important that we learn to see our surroundings for what they have become. In many places, it feels as if there just isn't that much left that's worth trying to save. If all the culture we see is commercial culture, and all the society we see is consumer society, then the best we can do is walk away from it, and look for other people who are ready to do the same.
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Good comment by Wolverine.
It is interesting that we began the 21st century with the Y2K alarm. It was a false alarm, but at least it brought into focus the circumstances that would surround a real crisis. We should all get into survival mode.
One thing that the author did not discuss is the formation of a new currency, or NUSD’s. A debt holiday for all and a reset to the economy like occured in Brazil. There are solutions, but they all involve the end of US Hegemony, which is not a pretty thing to think about. The only thing that has prevented the world from entering a new dark ages for the past 100 years is the US, like it or not. Without us around anymore, who’s going to lead, China. The frightening aspect of that notion may be enough to get the world to cut us some slack.
While I agree with the author’s premise, I call it, “The Great Unraveling,” and I agree that it is likely, it is not a certainty. Comparing US to Russia is not accurate. Also, we have lots of guns and gold. So time will tell. I personally have stocked up on “junk” silver, old pre 1964 coins that still have intrinsic value. I have fantasized many times going into a grocery store and paying for a loaf of bread with a silver dime.
I agree, we seem to be going from the bottom up.
Remarks against Obama probed
Durham County News Observer | 13 November 2998 | Stanley B. Chambers Jr
Posted on 11/14/2008 8:37:49 AM PST by silverleaf
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2132113/posts
-bailout #1-
The Bretton Woods, officially known as
the United Nations Monetary and Financial Conference
state.gov | 11/13/08 | state.gov
Posted on 11/14/2008 11:33:29 AM PST by thetru
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2132218/posts
Turn 10M into 3 Billion Thanks to TARP (Scams have started)
CBS MarketWatch | 11/14/2008 | Alistair Barr
Posted on 11/14/2008 3:10:03 PM PST by demoskowitz
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2132334/posts
-2nd Amendment topics-
Suck it up! Get on the offensive.
GunTalk website | 11/13/08 | Tom Gresham
Posted on 11/13/2008 4:46:41 PM PST by Neil E. Wright
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2131733/posts
When Seconds Count
WCPO channel 9
Posted on 11/14/2008 2:23:54 AM PST by hoosierham
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2131944/posts
52% did. The 46%-47% that didn't has probably 85% of the guns in civilian hands (at least the long guns, and most particularly the battle rifles and carbines). The new SA will find themselves in some "interesting" situations if they go too far.
Yeah, but back then we had morals.
I understand your statement as I have said the same thing. However, I was reminded that in the very first family on earth the oldest son murdered the younger — 25% homicide rate. From the beginning of time there has been rampant debauchery.
From the beginning of time there has been rampant debauchery.”
That’s going to look like a picnic compared to what is to come
Yeah, it is going to be funny to watch the obama voters long for the days of George Bush.
It appears you may not have spent any time in our inner cities lately. Whole neighborhoods where residents cannot leave their homes after dark, and no one, not cops, not government, not citizens, nobody, lifts a finger to restore order.
Joe Biden knows.
>No one knows what is happening and no one knows what will happen
Yah, I know, he watched FDR explain it on TV back in ‘29
Great post, but have to ask about this line: “We don’t have a gun - yet.”
Unless you doubt your ability to use one if needed, I strongly suggest you get one soon. Like this weekend. An inexpensive Mossberg pump action 12 ga. can be had for less than $200 and is a good first choice home defense/hunting weapon.
“Cancel all welfare and SS payments week 1. Empty the local grocery store shelves week 2. By week 3, your city will be burning and the cross sub-cultural violence will have killed thousands.”
Bingo.
This is why the 2nd is so important. It’s a last ditch guarantee.
We’re thinking about the gun - hubby is not so keen on the idea with the kids in the house. Our Cub Scouts have more firearm experience than we do - our 10 year old is an excellent shot! It would also be nice to be able to hunt if we needed to - I’m trying to convince him.
I stocked up for Y2K also, and took a bit of ribbing for that!
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