Posted on 11/14/2008 12:05:38 PM PST by Dubya-M-DeesWent2SyriaStupid!
Hello, everyone! The talk you are about to hear is the result of a lengthy process on my part. My specialty is in thinking about and, unfortunately, predicting collapse. My method is based on comparison: I watched the Soviet Union collapse, and, since I am also familiar with the details of the situation in the United States, I can make comparisons between these two failed superpowers.
I was born and grew up in Russia, and I traveled back to Russia repeatedly between the late 80s and mid-90s. This allowed me to gain a solid understanding of the dynamics of the collapse process as it unfolded there. By the mid-90s it was quite clear to me that the US was headed in the same general direction. But I couldn't yet tell how long the process would take, so I sat back and watched.
I am an engineer, and so I naturally tended to look for physical explanations for this process, as opposed to economic, political, or cultural ones. It turns out that one could come up with a very good explanation for the Soviet collapse by following energy flows.
What happened in the late 80s is that Russian oil production hit an all-time peak. This coincided with new oil provinces coming on stream in the West - the North Sea in the UK and Norway, and Prudhoe Bay in Alaska - and this suddenly made oil very cheap on the world markets. Soviet revenues plummeted, but their appetite for imported goods remained unchanged, and so they sank deeper and deeper into debt. What doomed them in the end was not even so much the level of debt, but their inability to take on further debt even faster. Once international lenders balked at making further loans, it was game over.
What is happening to the United States now is broadly similar, with certain polarities reversed. The US is an oil importer, burning up 25% of the world's production, and importing over two-thirds of that. Back in mid-90s, when I first started trying to guess the timing of the US collapse, the arrival of the global peak in oil production was scheduled for around the turn of the century.
SNIP...ARTICLE IS VERY LONG
Financial collapse seems to be particularly painful if you happen to have a lot of money. On the other hand, I run across people all the time, who feel that "Nothing's happened yet." These are mostly younger, relatively successful people, who have little or no savings, and still have good paying jobs, or unemployment insurance that hasn't run out yet. Their daily lives aren't much affected by the turmoil on the financial markets, and they don't believe that anything different is happening beyond the usual economic ups and downs.
Commercial collapse is much more obvious, and observing it doesn't entail opening envelopes and examining columns of figures. It is painful to most people, and life-threatening to some. When store shelves are stripped bare of necessities and remain that way for weeks at a time, panic sets in. In most places, this requires some sort of emergency response, to make sure that people are not deprived of food, shelter, medicine, and that some measure of security and public order is maintained. People who know what's coming can prepare to sit out the worst of it.
Political collapse is more painful yet, because it is directly life-threatening to many people. The breakdown of public order would be particularly dangerous in the US, because of the large number of social problems that have been swept under the carpet over the years. Americans, more than most other people, need to be defended from each other at all times. I think that I would prefer martial law over complete and utter mayhem and lawlessness, though I admit that both are very poor choices.
Social and cultural collapse seem to have already occurred in many parts of the country to a large extent. What social activity remains seems to be anchored to transitory activities like work, shopping, and sports. Religion is perhaps the largest exception, and many communities are organized around churches. But in places where society and culture remain intact, I believe that social and cultural collapse is avoidable, and that this is where we must really dig in our heels.
Also, I think it is very important that we learn to see our surroundings for what they have become. In many places, it feels as if there just isn't that much left that's worth trying to save. If all the culture we see is commercial culture, and all the society we see is consumer society, then the best we can do is walk away from it, and look for other people who are ready to do the same.
Click Here to READ FULL ARTICLE
I concur with your reversal of order of collapse in America.
Hey it is an interesting opinion that could be referring to the political divide and not meant to be taken literally as in physical attack per say, who knows?
>we will muddle through this unless a devastating terrorist attack occurs, a major war or some cataclysm of nature occurs in which case, anything is possible.
D) All of the above.
Thanks for posting. I skimmed this article and it is very interesting. I think the author makes many good points and this is very disturbing.
“I’ll take chicken little for $1000 Alex”.
; ~ )
Here is a jewel for which I've seen no evidence.
I thought the same thing, immorality comes first, then everything collapses, they have these in the reverse order. It is not money and success that keeps man inline, but morality, without it, everything goes ....
Well if I lived in Iceland and I knew that the value of my currency was about to be halved I would take action. Convert currency to real property, convert currency to gold, etc?
ping
“two failed superpowers” Dmitry Orlov
Russian optimism....
a week?
For hurricane prep...a store is picked clean in less than two days.
” By week 3, your city will be burning and the cross sub-cultural violence will have killed thousands. “
Actually, week 3 is the more worrisome to me. I know Texas is a big state but Mexico is a BIG country and I think it is quite likely that Mexicans will pour over the border (along with AQ) if there was ever civil unrest on a national scale. That said, I realize that such an influx could be mitigated by the extreme nature of the unrest. Luckily, we are an armed citizenry in Texas. However, that has its limits. Any thoughts?
>D all of the above.
Maybe. I listed them in order of probability in my opinion.
Not having had time to read the article (which I will do) I agree with you as to the inversion. Yes, I agree the outcome is bound to be similar.
Everytime I hear the terms “martial law” or “lawlessness” I think of Back to the Future 2 when Marty enters the psuedo-1985 that’s ran by Biff.
Oh how I wish I had a time machine...
bookmarked for coffee reading tomorrow AM
...along with all the other gloomy stuff.
*not to self*
extra sugar in the coffee please
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