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Is 2008 a Realigning Election? Numbers Offer Some Clues
Real Clear POlitics ^ | 11/11/08 | Stuart Rothenberg

Posted on 11/11/2008 11:25:23 AM PST by bilhosty

The big question that everyone is asking is whether this month's general election marked the beginning of a political realignment that will create a new dominant party. Have Americans shifted their loyalties and fundamental assumptions about the parties and about the government, or did we just witness a short-term reaction to years of bad news?

Let's be clear: The election results in 2006 and 2008 constitute the kind of one-two punch that is rare in modern American political history. It would be silly to portray this year's election as a minor hiccup. The nation elected a liberal African-American Democrat from the North as president, and it gave him a majority of all votes cast.

Moreover, in the past two elections, Democrats gained at least a dozen Senate seats and at least 50 House seats, taking total control of Congress. At the state level, they now have 4,090 state legislators to the GOP's 3,221.

Polls show that the Republican advantages on foreign policy and pocketbook issues have either shrunk or disappeared. While there remains a stark contrast on cultural matters between the parties, Democrats have sought to mute that difference on both guns and values, and those issues clearly were not what the 2008 elections were about.

If demographics are indeed destiny, then the 2008 national exit poll at the very least raises questions about where the GOP goes from here.

For the first time ever, whites constituted less than 75 percent of the electorate, a considerable problem for the Republican Party given its historical problems attracting minorities. Sen. John Kerry (D-Mass.) drew just

(Excerpt) Read more at realclearpolitics.com ...


TOPICS: News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: 111th; 2008; bho2008; demographics; mccain; realignment
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"For the first time ever, whites constituted less than 75 percent of the electorate, a considerable problem for the Republican Party"

For those of you who think that all the GOP has to do is start throwing people out. You had better read this and think again. We nowneed a bigger chunk of the white vote than ever before. Any one who says anthing else is just smoking crack.

1 posted on 11/11/2008 11:25:25 AM PST by bilhosty
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To: bilhosty

As minorities continue to become the majority, the GOP will continue to diminish in influence.


2 posted on 11/11/2008 11:28:13 AM PST by Slapshot68
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To: bilhosty
Perhaps but I don't want the GOP to be the white party. I want the party to represent the best interests of the people through the maxim, “less government is more”. I have met some blacks and Hispanics who vote republican because the democrats do nothing for them. The own businesses, have families and do church on Sundays.
3 posted on 11/11/2008 11:28:34 AM PST by misterrob (Smooth talkers win at singles bars and in politics .. often with similar outcomes for the listener)
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To: bilhosty

demographics did not change that much in 4 years. The realignment will be dependent on the Dems success. If the economy gets better and they do good with foreign policy, they will maintain power for awhile. If they fail, we will make gains.


4 posted on 11/11/2008 11:28:39 AM PST by ilgipper
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To: bilhosty

Keep in mind that a large part of why the white segment of the electorate dropped below 75% is because many white conservatives simply sat the election out. This is why there was a huge uptick in new and first-time voters, yet only a ~1.5 million voter increase over the total votes cast in 2004. Part of the problem is in bringing these people home, not diluting the message to bring in more marginal and shallowly-committed moderates.


5 posted on 11/11/2008 11:29:51 AM PST by Titus Quinctius Cincinnatus (Nihil utile nisi quod honestum - Marcus Tullius Cicero)
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To: Slapshot68

Start working on the non-minority minority, orientals, and you might not have to worry so much.


6 posted on 11/11/2008 11:30:51 AM PST by the OlLine Rebel (Common sense is an uncommon virtue./Technological progress cannot be legislated.)
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To: bilhosty

It’s been my opinion that, especially in Oregon, a strict fiscally conservative small government but socially Libertarian party would make a big splash.


7 posted on 11/11/2008 11:31:02 AM PST by Tailback
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To: misterrob

Precisely. I am a minority, and am not a Democrat because I believe in Individual Liberty.

We need to get back on-message. Talking about details like tax rates, capital gains, is not appealing to the general population.

We need to re-frame the debate. Become the Liberty Party again in opposition to the Nanny / Slavery Party.


8 posted on 11/11/2008 11:31:14 AM PST by rom
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To: bilhosty
For those of you who think that all the GOP has to do is start throwing people out. You had better read this and think again. We nowneed a bigger chunk of the white vote than ever before. Any one who says anthing else is just smoking crack.

And Blacks and Hispanics voted in the majority to preserve marriage in California and Florida. Yet the GOP refuses to take issues like life and the traditional family into those communities where they will surely get some traction.

The GOP doesn't need to become "Democrat lite" to win. They've just got to be willing to take their message to places where the lily-white blue-bloods aren't comfortable going.
9 posted on 11/11/2008 11:33:56 AM PST by Antoninus (No Mitt. Not Now. Not in 2012. Not ever.)
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To: Tailback

Only if it draws primarily from Democrats.


10 posted on 11/11/2008 11:36:06 AM PST by Post Toasties (It's not a smear if it's true.)
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To: bilhosty

I half agree with you.

But I also believe this was a throw the bums out election too.

The GOP brand was badly damaged, thanks to a partisan media, along with Bush’s failure to articulate a conservative agenda using the bully pulpit.


11 posted on 11/11/2008 11:36:34 AM PST by nhwingut (,)
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To: Tailback

>>>>a strict fiscally conservative small government but socially Libertarian party would make a big splash.<<<<<

You must be an anarchist :)


12 posted on 11/11/2008 11:37:37 AM PST by angkor (Conservatism is not a religious movement.)
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To: bilhosty
In order to have a realigning election you need new ideas that motivate people to alter their customary voting patterns. Obama ran away from any ideas he had prior to 2008. Absent those new ideas there is nothing that ties Obama voters to the Democratic Party for future elections.
13 posted on 11/11/2008 11:38:26 AM PST by Libertarianize the GOP (Make all taxes truly voluntary)
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To: bilhosty
One of the fundamentals of communism is to "divide and conquer". Hey, it's working. They're dividing us along religous, racial, and class lines.

Someone should be preaching that we want "Americans" in our party...no matter what color. The advantages of being an "American" outweigh any of the aforesaid divisions.

No matter what the demographics, the reasons to prefer living in America are pretty much universial. Freedom, oppportunity, and (relative) safety.

Out of all the America haters out there (including michelle mabelle obama) how many have you seen buying one-way tickets to leave? How many?

The argument needs to be refocused on how living in America will totally suck under communism/socialism. Why? Because it will suck for everyone, no matter what the demographics.

I remember back in the early days of the cold war, there were constant public service announcements on TV and Radio about how terrible life was under those types of governments. No freedom of speech, no 2nd Amendment, etc. Horror stories, even as late as the 90's about the Soviets having to "wash out" their plastic trash bags and reuse them. I really can't see many American guys doing that before heading for the golf course.

Bread lines and re-education camps.

A lot of people - younger people - were never taught any of that, and many don't have a clue that socialism is bad. No one has told them.

I've asked several youngsters if they have ever heard of the communist manifesto...they hadn't.

This is what they need to be hearing about - the evils of it all. We've got to bring these horrors down to their level and how it would affect them in their daily life, and their children's lives.

The politicans can talk all of the political gobbledegook they want about the government, congress and all of that, but the average young person doesn't even know who the vice-president is, much less their congressman and what s/he stands for. That's why RACE winds up being the deciding factor in many cases, people who don't understand the rhetoric look for something familiar.

This is why every step and misstep of obama - and the causes and effects of his presidency - should be chronicled, and brought to light.

When a candidate is promising utopia, with free everything, it's going to take a lot of convincing to go with the old tried and true.
14 posted on 11/11/2008 11:40:11 AM PST by FrankR (Operation Tightbelt...let's see how the economy runs when Conservatives spend less...)
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To: bilhosty
The Republican Party has to change or face a slow death. It can't continue cranking out white voters.

"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus

15 posted on 11/11/2008 11:40:48 AM PST by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
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To: rom
I am very glad to see some minorities on this board and loyal conservatives and Republicans. But, very few seem to come on board with us.There is no way we can win without getting a a higher percentage of minorities and whites. We just cannot abe kicking people out. Some people think We must become Dem lite as on poster said. In truth we need to become something completely new. We have to have a mesage that is right for the time and one that we can all stand behind. We have neither now. There is just no other way. What we are doing now is just not working.
16 posted on 11/11/2008 11:41:26 AM PST by bilhosty
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To: bilhosty
re: or did we just witness a short-term reaction to years of bad news

One of the problems with today's financial ‘crisis’ is that no one knows for sure what's going on. We've been misled and lied to so often and to such an extent that there's no way to know what else is out there waiting to play gotcha with us.

Look at how the current crisis was manipulated by those in the know in Congress, followed closely by their shills in the MSM. The Dems who had been benefiting from the bad loans to those who did not qualify knew damn good and well what was going on and chose to have it explode with perfect timing just before the election. It started with one of them ‘leaking’ the word that a major, major bank was about to go under. From there it was domino after domino falling under the direction of the Dems. Not only did the manage financially for years and years they also managed to have the collapse happen at the perfect time and then to blame it on the other guys.

Make not bones about it, the entire Valerie Plame affair was another example of masterful political manipulation, starting with the trip by hubby all the way to having one of ‘theirs’ leak her name and then sit back and watch the other guys take the blame.

Watch how quickly the news turns good now. Regardless of how bad the underlying story is in truth.

The only thing that will stop them now is a full fledged all out depression as all the steps they've taken to throw the Bush administration off course come home to roost.

17 posted on 11/11/2008 11:45:33 AM PST by jwparkerjr (God Bless America!)
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To: bilhosty

“We nowneed a bigger chunk of the white vote than ever before. Any one who says anthing else is just smoking crack”

You may know more than I about smoking crack, you are the one talking about it. The Republican should accept all races that adhere to their beliefs and principles, you allow others and you undermine the part. Now, what beliefs and principles should the party adhere to, I say a platform defining the parties position on freedom, the opportunity for prosperity, and security, anyone who can’t support what the party stands for should be “thrown out”.


18 posted on 11/11/2008 11:50:22 AM PST by Peter Horry (Mount Up Everybody and Ride to the Sound of the Guns .. Pat Buchanan)
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To: Tailback
It’s been my opinion that, especially in Oregon, a strict fiscally conservative small government but socially Libertarian party would make a big splash.

You hit the nail on the head right there. In this election, there was no contrast between the candidates, so people took their chances while riding the wave of nostalgia on the Hope-bama Express. Put Ron Paul up and he would have whooped Obama because the war couldn't be used against him, the college students liked him, and he was a clear contrast to Obama who could educate the masses as to why the founders wanted a small, controlled government. We deserved to lose with eight years of Bush and McCain as his potential successor.

19 posted on 11/11/2008 11:51:09 AM PST by Engineer_Soldier (I leave for Iraq tonight (11-11-2008); see y'all next year!)
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To: ilgipper

Overanalyzing voters. 2006 was mostly Iraq, 2008 WallStreet/financials collapse 6 weeks prior to election. Democrats benefited of peoples frustrations. To win now they will have to deliver peace and prosperity. Much harder


20 posted on 11/11/2008 11:51:41 AM PST by RedLatino
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