Posted on 11/09/2008 5:26:19 PM PST by SeekAndFind
For all the derision directed toward pre-election polling, the final poll estimates were not far off from the actual nationwide voteshares for the two candidates, according to an analysis by Costas Panagopoulos, Ph.D, at Fordham University.
On average, preelection polls from 23 public polling organizations projected a Democratic advantage of 7.52 percentage points on Election Day, which is only about 1.37 percentage points away from the current estimate of a 6.15-point Obama margin in the national popular vote.
To assess poll accuracy, Panagopoulos pulled estimates from the 23 polling organizations. Four of these polls appear to have overestimated McCain support (indicated with a * below), while most polls (17) overestimated Obama strength.
Pre-election projections for two organizations’ final polls — Rasmussen and Pew — were perfectly in agreement with the actual election result.
The following list ranks the 23 organizations by the accuracy of their final, national preelection polls (as reported on pollster.com).
1. Rasmussen (11/1-3)
1. Pew (10/29-11/1)
2. YouGov/Polimetrix (10/18-11/1)
3. Harris Interactive (10/20-27)
4. GWU (Lake/Tarrance) (11/2-3)*
5. Diageo/Hotline (10/31-11/2)*
5. ARG (10/25-27)*
6. CNN (10/30-11/1)
6. Ipsos/McClatchy (10/30-11/1)
7. DailyKos.com (D)/Research 2000 (11/1-3)
8. AP/Yahoo/KN (10/17-27)
9. Democracy Corps (D) (10/30-11/2)
10. FOX (11/1-2)
11. Economist/YouGov (10/25-27)
12. IBD/TIPP (11/1-3)
13. NBC/WSJ (11/1-2)
14. ABC/Post (10/30-11/2)
15. Marist College (11/3)
16. CBS (10/31-11/2)
17. Gallup (10/31-11/2)
18. Reuters/ C-SPAN/ Zogby (10/31-11/3)
19. CBS/Times (10/25-29)
20. Newsweek (10/22-23)
Notice that the media sponsored ones were the farthest off...the last ones on the list. CNN actually was the major tv media’s best. The others show some solid evidence that the polls were driving the news to make O inevitable.
IDB sure slipped.
Rasmussen had it right the whole time.
Pew Research is garbarge. For much of October, they showed Obama having a 10-15 point lead. Then suddenly, Pew did a final election poll that showed Obama leading 52-46. The previous Pew poll, a few days earlier, had Obama up 53-38.
Also Pew did a post-election media study that had Fox News being biased against Obama and the other networks being balanced. Pew has lost credibility with me. The only pollster I trust is Rasmussen.
I told you zogby sucked
Just like 2004. Steady as she goes from start to finish. I think all those wild poll swings shown in other polls are not real, and just done to create drama.
I don’t put much stock in individual polls. I do put great stock in composites of different polls and sadly they were accurate.I was jumped all over on this board whenever I suggested the polls were a source of concern.
A lot of folks on here were quick to dismiss and quick to monkey with the numbers to try to show that no matter a poll said John McCain was really winning based on its numbers. “If you change how you weigh the young folks and reduce registered dems to this, etc, etc you get McCain by 4.”
According to Pew McCain skyrocketed up at the finish. We know that wasn't just an aberration caused by Pew finagling it's numbers! No, no, because they're reliable pollsters. See- they're final numbers were good!
Evidently that is true. Rasmussen said time after time that he was seeing no changes, it was a 5 to 6 point race. He was right and that was what I was afraid of. He’s a good pollster.
LOL, Pews is and always was a joke. A left wing joke. Only problem is the joke is on us this time.
They all predicted Obama to win, which he did. We ignore polls at the risk of looking foolish.
538's composite was almost uncannily accurate:
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/
The big surprise was IN, and Obama's margin there only around 25,000 votes.
They all try to ‘readjust’ for that last week. Which ones had the right numbers from September on? None.
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