Posted on 11/07/2008 4:32:56 PM PST by TigerLikesRooster
Respected analyst Eric Fishwick says that China may be heading for a severe economic slowdown
The bearish analysis suggests that it will be difficult for Chinese consumers to lift the country out of the slowdown as the economy is still largely focused on exports and commodities
Leo Lewis, Asia Business Correspondent
China must be radically reassessed by investors and could be lurching towards a more dramatic economic slowdown than Beijing authorities will admit, a CLSA report says.
The grim assessment from Eric Fishwick, chief economist at CLSA, an Asia specialist private equity firm, argues that it will be impossible for China to achieve anything like the growth rates it is presently projecting for next year.
Even with aggressive government measures, growth in 2009 could plunge to 5.5 per cent, he said.
The super-bearish forecast depends on certain weak signals that may emerge in the fourth quarter of 2008, but comes amid reports from the Chinese electricity sector that suggest the country’s mighty manufacturing engine-room is already sputtering badly.
More than 70 per cent of the electricity generated in China is consumed by industry and according to reports, monthly national power output in October fell for the first time in a decade.
Traders in Singapore said it could be a slump that would have a huge negative impact on global commodity demand: ferrous and nonferrous metal-processing industries are among the heaviest consumers of electricity in China and it is their slowdown that is reflected in the drop in power usage.
(Excerpt) Read more at business.timesonline.co.uk ...
Junkies going crazy upon seeing the load of stash laying out there in plain sight. That is right. The white knight is the Chinese dealer delivering a load of stash to desperate addicts. Addicts' Santa Clause.:-)
Ping!
China doesn’t have a home market? Imagine that. So when Walmart stops ordering, what will the peasants do now.
I wish global economy worked in the real world but it works best in theory.
Bring industry back to this country, lots of blue collar industry and this country will prosper again.
What was I thinking...no one will do those jobs anymore. Everyone wants it handed to them!
MAY be? What i want to know is, WHY wasn't the bankruptcy and closing of 67,000 factories BEFORE the Olymipic kept quiet? WHY wasn't any of this reflected in the chinese stock markets at the time? WHY is it that this GLOBAL MARKET FRAUD only now comming to light, and reported as a mere economic slowdown in China. It wasn't just mortgages in America that is crashing markets. It this huge chinese FRAUD
China’s economy is heavily based on exports, especially to the US. China in the last ten years has been built on expectations of unending hyper-growth that make the pre-bust California real estate market look reasonable and sane in comparison.
I’d say that China is heading for its first serious economic crisis since (in all but name) embracing capitalism. This could be very, very interesting....
? Finally? This has been hidden from the markets for at least 6 MONTHS! 67,000 factories were bankrupt and closed BEFORE the olymics. And not tiny little factories either, HUGE giant conglomerates!
Do you really think industry is going to return to Obama's Communist America? I don't think so. Expect an exodus of what remains.
It is finally being factored into the market.:-) This is destined to happen. Chinese economy is the flip side of massive global financial bubble. No more bubble, and its economy in nose dive.
Nothing to fear, the globalists have Bretton Woods II all planned out. Coming soon on Nov 15th, they’ll be discussing a global reserve currency. Yay socialism!
Walmart? That's small potatoes, just wait till Cost-co, home depot etc. stops ordering, and all those dollar stores all over the place.
Personally...I don’t trust any commie bastards and have long been sort of skeptical of the 11% growth rate the Chicoms were claiming. If they are now claiming a growth rate of 5.5%, it is probably really at zero.
In any case it looks like predictions that the Chicoms would surpass the US economy by 2025 are probably greatly exaggerated.
I hate to disappoint you, but all that "bad paper" is the best paper you can buy now, thanks to uncle sam guaranteeing every last scrap of it.
Actually, China has been pushing products to the world market at loss to keep up the growth rate. Chinese communist regime will face grave challenges on many fronts.
The international monetary fund is hoping to borrow a trillion or so from the USA. because it’s nearly broke because of loans to Paki stan (to build more nukes and arm more taliban)
Little do they know that “the Messiah” was hoping to borrow a trillion or so from the international monetary fund.
The USA is broke, it and its people own nothing but massive debt.
Are some of these problems the result of too rapid growth? (Kinda like the old communist regimes forced industrialization at the expense of agriculture.)
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