Posted on 11/05/2008 12:22:51 PM PST by I still care
If the exit polls are accurate, it looks like the Republican Jewish realignment will have to wait for yet another election.
For months, Barack Obama struggled with Jewish undecideds, and McCain supporters predicted their candidate might win close to 40 percent of Jewish voters. Instead, polls show Obama winning about 78 percent of the Jewish vote against 22 percent for McCain.
To understand why, it’s worth consulting no less a political analyst than Rush Limbaugh.
The conservative talkster recently chatted with a McCain supporter from Michigan who identified herself as Jewish. She asked Rush why her Democratic coreligionists weren’t as concerned as she about Obama’s associations with Jeremiah Wright and William Ayers.
Limbaugh responded that the Jewish vote is emotional, not rational. “Liberals and Democrats are Democrats and liberals first. That’s the only explanation for this,” said Limbaugh, adding, “And no matter what you tell them factually, they’re going to reject it because their attachment to all their things politically are actually emotional.”
Normally I'd assume that more Jews vote Democratic because their values and the policies they support are more in line with the Left’s than the Right’s. As long as there are clear splits between the parties on major issues like abortion and tax policy, isn’t it rational to vote for the party you agree with?
And yet, a new survey by the Berman Jewish Policy Archive at NYU Wagner seems to bolster Limbaugh.
The survey, led by sociologist Steven M. Cohen, confirms that when it comes to health care, government largesse, and defense, to name three issues, “Jews’ political values incline them to support Obama.”
And yet (and here’s where Limbaugh is on to something) the survey also suggests that the Jewish affinity for the Democrats “cannot be well-explained by their differences in political values.”
In fact, “they are more liberal and more Democratic than their values would statistically predict.”
To put it another way, other cohorts with similar demographics and positions on the issues vote for Republicans in greater numbers.
So what’s with the Jews?
It’s all about “political identity,” according to Cohen and his team.
“People like to think of themselves as totally rational and driven by carefully considered values,” they write. “In fact, Jews in the upcoming election also respond to their identities. In their case, they will be reflecting their long-held, multi-generation attachment to the liberal camp in America, and to the Democratic Party.”
In other words, “my father was a Democrat, my grandfather was a Democrat….”
Or, as Limbaugh says, “emotional attachment and the Democrat Party or liberalism comes first.”
Of course, a Jewish Democrat might argue that such loyalty was earned in the course of party history. By this theory, Jews were attracted to the Democrats not just on specific issues, but thanks to Democratic attitudes that seemed more hospitable to the Jewish majority in the 20th century.
Such Jewish Democrats may well remember the “paleoconservatives” and their anti- Semitism. Or the isolationists who opposed FDR and America’s entry into World War II in the coded, and not-so-coded, language of Jew-baiting. While academics debate if FDR could have done more to halt the Shoa, bubbes and zaydas tell stories of how he surrounded himself with Jewish advisers when Jews were struggling for a toe-hold in corporate and academic life.
Fast forward to Pat Buchanan, an anti- Semite whose “cultural war” speech at the 1992 Republican convention prompted Molly Ivins to quip that it “sounded better in the original German.” Or the last few Republican presidential conventions, notable for their lack of black or brown faces. Most Jews may be white, but they still consider themselves a minority.
This obviously selective history suggests why many undecided Jews came back to Obama after getting to know Sarah Palin. According to a slew of interviews, her attacks on “elites”— educated, urban, active in academia and the media — did not go down well with Jewish voters who are disproportionately well-educated, clustered in the big cities, and over-represented in academia and the media. "Main Street." "Real America." For folks whose ancestors came through Ellis Island, Palin's rhetoric sounded like a like a political "no vacancy" sign.
As the New York Times’ conservative, and Jewish, columnist David Brooks lamented, the Republican Party “has lost the educated class by sins of commission — by telling members of that class to go away.”
Jewish Republicans deny the Palin factor or say that it pales next to what should be a Jewish priority: defending Israel and defeating Islamism. On these counts, they say, Republicans are the Jews’ best friends, while the Democrats, with a Jimmy Carterish wing that is hostile to Israel, are becoming increasingly bad news.
GOP optimists are also placing their chips on an actuarial solution: Indeed, an Oct. 23 analysis of Gallup polls, reported in the Forward, had Obama winning 74 percent of Jews aged 55 and over, compared to only 67 percent of those under 35.
But if Rush is right, Republicans have their work cut out for them. So long as Republicans send mixed cultural signals, and Democrats continue to pledge fealty to Israel, changing the Jewish vote will be like turning a battleship. There are powerful historical currents still pulling it in one direction.
But there are three kinds of jews as far as I can see.
The jew that identifies with and takes his Jewish Identity seriously. He believes in God and follows what he feels are His laws. These are usually conservative.
The secular jew that was raised jewish, identifies with Judaism, but actually doesn't really believe in God. They are sort of sad, really. They talk about the jews being special but they don't believe in the One that made them so. What you get are people who involve themselves in tradition that for them is really empty. As a result, they are the most liberal of the liberal - intelligentsia that cuts itself adrift from mainstream values.
Some may argue with this, but there is a brand of Christianity that identifies with Jews. They usually call themselves “Messianic” Jews and often follow all the Jewish festivals. They believe the old testament, just that Jesus is the Messiah unrecognized by traditional Judaism. Jews don't consider them Jewish of course, but they often do.
The only Jews who really stand by the free world live in Israel. And they are firm allies of the GOP
and what about Orthodox Jews?—the fastest growing segment of the Jewish population (average household of 5-8 kids). I bet they voted over 80% for McCain.
Well, you are completely out of order. Jews become Republicans after being mugged by reality then trying to get Democrats to accept reality, then finally lacking any other option.. they join the Republicans and find a home.
Its a hard process but the last step is Republican identification and the first step is an AH HAH moment where you recognize that this just isn't working as advertised. All of the promises of Social Justice and working for Respect for Humanity and creating a peaceful world are the last thing on the Democrat's minds. Its the coolaide they keep selling only to never deliver.
Well Obama just promised the biggest coolaid delivery ever, and alot of folks who were edging on their mugging pulled back because their friends said this guy is the "Real Deal."
Well, Obama is already spinning to lower expectations for his faithful. Yep, the Rapture he predicted for tomorrow has been postponed for a while while he cleans up the "Republican" housing mess, and oh by the way you need to send another check.
I've forgotten ~ many people take umbridge at the idea they are ineducable ~ they got the way they are through hard work ya' know.
I hope they don't point to Rahm and say "see, he's one of us" ~
Obviously I am against that sort of thing (and have a voluminous track record on the internet here and elsewhere fighting antisemitism). However, you actually asked me "Are you planning to help?"
Don't you think that's kind of over the top, or were you being sarcastic. The whole world is watching us ~ once you come up with some answer to my question we can then move on more rationally in our discussion.
I see in the secular Jewish culture, and that of many of my “limosine liberal” acquaintances, a belief that intelligence and education in and of itself is the primary qualifier for high office.
They are not issues-oriented. They just want the person who speaks the best and went to the best college.
That’s why the main criticism of Bush was that he was “dumb” (never mind Bush’s ivy league education—he didn’t speak well and didn’t act intellectual)
Voting on talent (speechifying, IQ points, etc) is an easy shortcut to avoid real analysis of whether you actually AGREE with what is being said.
It also gives you a president that you may disagree with, but you would be comfortable at a cocktail party with.
Of all places, the guy substituting for the BrickHead "Savage" said it best. Folks just didn't want to know. They wanted him to be as promised. This is how flim-flam artists work. Promise something to good to let go and draw the rubes in.
Man still doesn't have any concrete proposals.
CNN turned on the "reverb" sound effect for a Q&A section where Obama was "reverbing" and his questioner wasn't.
Simply amazing. But you could tell this was being directed by someone since it wasn't perfectly on cue (thankfully proving that BO wasn't a G'ould).
Man still doesn't have any concrete proposals.
Yep. When it comes down to it.. Obama is less likely to cause ripples than you might think. They had their national service thing up on the web and through today.. it was changed from compulsory to voluntary. They still have to face the fact that most people think "Re-education Camps" when the government attempts to grab every kid from 18 to 25 and keep them for "training" for only 3 months.
My daughter was saying they are going to have a their hands full trying to force kids to do this if they tried.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.