Top 10 Reasons to ignore exit polls

The Pittsburgh Tribune Review ^ | November 4, 2008 | Salena Zito

[Salena Zito]

10 Reasons Why You Should Ignore Exit Polls

1. Exit polls have a much larger intrinsic margin for error than regular polls. This is because of what are known as cluster sampling techniques. Exit polls are not conducted at all precincts, but only at some fraction thereof. Although these precincts are selected at random and are supposed to be reflective of their states as a whole, this introduces another opportunity for error to occur (say, for instance, that a particular precinct has been canvassed especially heavily by one of the campaigns). This makes the margins for error somewhere between 50-90% higher than they would be for comparable telephone surveys.

[scooby321]

Duh

[Rudder]

The number one reason not to trust the exit polls: They're pure democrat propaganda.

Too bad you excerpted your own article.

[The_Reader_David]

Summary of the article:

Systematic non-response bias.

Patience is a virtue.

[PghBaldy]

John F Kerry / John Edwards (Dem) 368,912 57.2%
George W Bush / Dick Cheney (Rep) 271,925 42.1%
Michael Badnarik / Richard V Campagna (Lib) 3,573 0.6%
David K Cobb / Patricia H Lamarche (Gre) 551 0.1%
Michael Anthony Peroutka / Chuck Bladwin (Con) 508 0.1%
Totals

PRESIDENTIAL ELECTORS
Vote For 1
(WITH 987 OF 1321 PRECINCTS COUNTED 74.72%)
Barack Obama (Dem) . . . . . . . 245,882 59.41
John McCain (Rep). . . . . . . . 162,318 39.22
Ralph Nader (Ind). . . . . . . . 2,658 .64
Bob Barr (Lib). . . . . . . . . 1,337 .32
WRITE-IN. . . . . . . . . . . 1,669 .40

[PghBaldy]

My last post was for ALLEGHENY Co.