I have my Talisman of Protection (+4 against Zealots).
I think things will probably be closer than the polls have said (popular vote, not necessarily electoral), but very unlikely McCain will win. We can hope, but I think it’s unlikely. If he does, basically ALL the polling organizations are going to have zero credibility in the future.
I don't think it will be that late. By 10pm EST we will know that McCain has it in the bag.
already posted!
These polls are very susceptible to the effect variously known as the “Clever Hans” effect, or “shy voter” or what the Brits experienced in 1992 with ALL the polls calling it for Kinnock, when it was John Major who actually won. The Brits called it the “Spiral of Silence.”
It happens when one candidate is widely regarded by opinion-makers as “unfashionable” relative to his opponent. Some people will not admit to a pollster their preference for the “uncool” candidate. It only takes a couple voters per hundred to throw the polls into chaos.